🇹🇭 With politics sorted (for now) it's time to save the economy in Thailand

Hello friends!

We are sans Vietnam today, but for a very good reason. There is a LOT to talk about! A visit from US President Joe Biden has kicked off a round of shockingly bad reporting that frames Vietnam as either simply the site of a massive generation-defining US quagmire or as the rope in China and the US’s alleged tug-o-war. It has, however, also resulted in some fantastic analysis and reporting from those better in the know. I’ll be back Friday to go deep with you then!

And as I said yesterday: I’ve had an enormous influx of new free subscribers, which is always exciting. The country-specific newsletters are usually within the paywall but to celebrate someone (who!) very nicely putting my name out there I’m going to keep this week open and hope that some new readers join us:

I offer free subscriptions for all Asean and Timorese nationals under 30, so if that’s you just let me know via reply and I can activate that. Substack also has a very easy institutional membership tier that a couple of workplaces have taken advantage of. This makes it much easier for finance departments to reimburse and for me to not cry when I see how many people with fancy email addresses forward it regularly. 

See you tomorrow for the maritime states,

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 In opposition, Move Forward exits the gates running

The excitement has died down in Thailand (for now) and it’s all about the boring business of governance. 

In Srettha Thavisin’s first speech to parliament as PM, he vowed to follow through on the economic recovery plan that Pheu Thai had set out during the campaign. This includes cash handouts in an effort to get things going again: “Tourism and spending are recovering so slowly that there is the risk of economic recession. It is necessary to stimulate the economy and spending,” he said, as per Al Jazeera. Bloomberg has more on what the 560 billion baht ($16 billion) plan should look like, including the digital wallet policy which is the lynchpin of the whole thing. 

Sounds good, but what does it actually mean, asks Move Forward Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul said. “This policy statement is no different from a document released earlier. It does not elaborate. There are only broad words but no indicators... If it was a GPS signal, the country would be lost,” she said, as reported by the Bangkok Post. If Pheu Thai thought Move Forward might give them a few weeks to find their feet, they were sorely mistaken. 

“No amendments shall be made to the monarchy section” of Thailand’s constitution under Srettha, he confirmed. 

🇱🇦 Laos out into the world

I’m going to start this with a rant. I usually HATE coverage of North Korea’s restaurants around the place. They’re often quirky little pieces about the writer’s weird night out with friends in a restaurant where the workers live under terrible conditions. They often do the Kim regime’s bidding by reducing the places to fun archaic throwbacks, the closest the writer will ever get to a VICE in Pyongyang in a 2007 story. I hate them! There’s nothing fun or quirky about it!

And then there are pieces like Alastair McCready’s here for Al Jazeera in which the restaurants, this time in Laos, tell us a bigger story about North Korea’s links to the host country. ‘While previously serving as nationalistic soft-power vehicles promoting North Korean culture abroad, today, the restaurants in Laos downplay their links to Pyongyang. Their role as cultural envoys diminished and with them generating scant revenue for the regime, their place in North Korea’s overseas business empire has only grown more opaque,’ McCready writes, and it just gets more interesting from there. 

I hope we’ll see more of that type of coverage soon — Laos is set to attend the Russia-hosted economic forum in Vladivostok this week (though I haven’t found an update). If they are indeed there it’s going to be intriguing! 

Elsewhere, Vientiane you’re up! Indonesian President Joko Widodo formally handed over the Asean chair to Laos Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone during the summit’s closing ceremony in Jakarta last Thursday. I know it’s alphabetical, but isn’t there something kind of charming about Asean that leadership can go from one of the world’s largest emerging economies and population centres to a small, land-locked communist country? What a world! 

🇲🇲 Corruption scandal threatens top military figure

“Two aircraft have already been delivered,” Myanmar's SAC trade minister told Reuters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum this weekend, referring to two Russian Su-30 fighter jets. It always bears repeating that the Myanmar junta has been air striking the hell out of the country since 2021. 

Fascinating report here from the Irrawaddy looking into the ‘notoriously corrupt’ Lieutenant-General Moe Myint Tun. The junta heavy-hitter is linked to military trade chief Major-General Yan Naung Soe, who was arrested earlier this month. This is a bit further in the weeds than I typically like to go when it comes to the military junta, but as number six in the regime, Moe Myint Tun’s potential sacking would have ramifications for the SAC. “We have to pay a bribe of at least US$ 20,000 or the equivalent in gold and gifts just to meet him. We then hand over more money depending on the type of business,” one business owner said of Moe Myint Tun. 

Ethnic militia group the United Wa State Army last week arrested more than 1,200 Chinese nationals it says were involved in online scams. The group were repatriated to China where Xinhua confirmed the numbers. Wa liaison officer Nyi Rang told the Associated Press the army and its political wing take the whole sordid mess very seriously — and fair enough too, a report from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights last month estimated more than 120,000 people in Myanmar were wrapped up in the crisis.

An intriguing piece here from Nikkei Asia looking at how Chinese and Thai companies have rushed to fill the void left by exiting Western companies in Myanmar. China has been backing some infrastructure projects, but Nikkei reports it’s in the enormous garment industry where the impact is most marked. Meanwhile, Thailand’s mega-beverage companies and oil and gas is eyeing opportunities across the country. 

Q&A here with Sean Turnell, the Australian economist who was detained by the junta. How are things looking in the economy of Myanmar? “‘Catastrophe’ is the word that I generally like to employ. And I don’t think that’s even hyperbole. No matter what you look at, it’s negative essentially,” Turnell said. 

🇰🇭 Cambodia’s got a reputation problem

Very interesting look at Cambodia’s ‘scamdemic’ and what it is doing to tourism. We talk in these pages and across all media in Southeast Asia weekly about the more revolting aspects of the entire thing, including human trafficking and slavery. This piece takes a look at how the story has played out in China. 

"When [the travellers] applied for passports and visas, the police in China asked where they were going. When they found out they were going to Cambodia, the police said Cambodia is not safe. A hundred people out of the 240 didn't come,” Cambodia-based Chinese travel agent Yang Ming told Nikkei Asia. Give this piece a read in full, it covers the ‘No More Bets’ film recently released in China depicting two young people lured into an unnamed Southeast Asian country’s scam compound. The effect has been enormous — one online poll found 181,000 respondents would avoid Cambodia, while just 3,778 saw it has a cost-effective and interesting destination. 

It hasn’t hurt bilateral relations though. Brand new prime minister, Hun Manet, is expected to visit Beijing next week on his first trip north since becoming leader. Beijing “looks forward to using this visit to plan for the future comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Cambodia,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning told AFP. 

Before we put an end to the succession chat, East Asia Forum ran this piece recently that collates the various theories about how and why the succession was so successful. 

Here’s a weird one out of Banteay Meanchey province. CamboJA reports police in the province detained and held 23 Candlelight party officials for questioning. Police allege the members had been collecting thumbprints as part of the process of establishing a new political party, which the members are alleged to have said is connected to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party. The whole thing is a bit smelly and, CamboJA notes, is the first high-profile detention of Candlelight members under the new Hun Manet government. As of Sunday, 17 of the detainees had been released.