The Week Ahead: Thailand braces for Move Forward ruling

Hello friends!

A big week ahead for Thailand, and we should hear on Wednesday about the future of Move Forward. 

Here’s last week’s episode of Reformasi, recorded just an hour before news broke about Prabowo Subianto visiting Moscow. Unlucky!

I’m a bit late today so let’s just crack straight in.
Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Ruling on Move Forward’s Future Expected Wednesday

Move Forward will be back in court Wednesday to hear if it’s sticking around or going the way of its predecessor Future Forward. This intriguing piece from Bangkok Post today compares the two cases and notes that the charges Move Forward is facing — accusations of undermining the political order by campaigning on lese-majeste reform — are more serious than anything Future Forward was hit with. 

‘In what may have been a significant indicator, the court rejected the party's request for an inquiry, claiming that such a process is unnecessary as there is already sufficient evidence to deliver a ruling,’ the article notes.

A survey from the National Institute of Development Administration taken at the end of July found most Thais don’t believe the party will be dissolved or that Prime Minister Srettha Thaivisin will be booted (another case for another time), the Nation reports. Personally, I think that may be a little optimistic but we live in hope! Expect an update from me one way or the other on Thursday. 

🇰🇭 Funan Techo Canal in Wet Season? Groundbreaking*

It’s happening today. The long-teased (and criticised for just as long) Funan Techo Canal in Cambodia is happening, with the ground-breaking ceremony set for today. Brian Eyler, director of Southeast Asia and the Energy, Water and Sustainability programs at the Stimson Center, has been sounding the alarm on the environmental implications for such a project for months now (he very generously had a chat with us a few months back). He told Voice of America that this was kinda the wrong time of the year for the project to begin.

Wet season has hit and with it, flooding season. He expects to see flooding in construction sites — a problem exacerbated by the canal site being on a flood plain. Oops! “Realistically, this ceremony will be one with much pomp and little substance. If the canal's construction is to proceed in earnest, major work will begin likely in early 2025 after the wet season floods subside,” Eyler said. 

(*Please tell me there’s a Venn diagram of DMKM readers and the Devil Wears Prada fans) 

🇻🇳 Cards are Laid In Vietnam, Where to Next?

President To Lam is now formally boss of the Communist Party after the death of Nguyn Phu Trong last month. So far, he’s keen to follow Trong’s lead: “In the coming time, the work on anticorruption will be continued fiercely. Personally, I feel fortunate that I have much experience in handling antigraft campaign during the time I worked at the police ministry,” he said as reported by Al Jazeera. 

There is one hiccup already. Vietnam had anticipated an upgrade in the classification of its economy by the US Commerce Department from its non-market economy status, ‘which would have reduced the punitive anti-dumping duties levied on non-market economies marked by heavy state influence,’ as Reuters put it so tightly. 

Vietnam’s next to other countries like Russia, China and North Korea on that list and wants off it bad. Hanoi, probably rightly, thought that the upgrade in the strategic relationship and all the friendly chat would lend to a change in status, but here we are. Sounds like the US has more work for Vietnam to do — does Hanoi under To Lam want to do it? 

🇲🇾 Besieged Anwar Steps Up Malaysian Support for Palestine

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been one of the world’s most vocal supporters of Palestine over the months and with the stakes getting higher after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, he’s stepping up rhetoric. At a pro-Palestine demo yesterday, Anwar told supporters that his government would continue to stand up for the cause.

“We will try our best to help them. We will speak up (for Palestine) no matter who is standing before us. And we will provide medical assistance to those who are sick, whether for them to be treated there (in Palestine) or to bring them over here for treatment. We will continue to help them relentlessly. The government will provide some funds (for this purpose), and I will also discuss with several other countries,” he said at the Kuala Lumpur event, as reported by Malaysiakini. 

“I am in touch with (Egyptian president) Abdel Fatah El-Sisi, seeking his assistance to facilitate humanitarian support to bring back some of the injured Palestinian women and children to be treated in Malaysia.” 

I also have no idea how this happens, but Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was forced to apologise today after saying ‘Hidup Israel,’ or ‘live Israel,’ on the stage for some reason.  

🇮🇩 Papuan Rebels Prepare to Free Kiwi Pilot

Phillip Mehrtens, a New Zealand pilot held by the West Papua National Liberation Army since February last year, will be released shortly, the rebels told media. “Commander Egianus has said humbly, for the sake of humanity, we will release the pilot,” spokesperson Sebby Sambom said of Egianus Kogoya’s decision, as reported by Reuters. No date has been set but I hope we hear more news this week. 

Interesting reads

Indonesia’s new golden visa: Is the risk worth the reward? (The Straits Times)

Analysts also note that the launch of the visa coincides with the government’s drive to attract foreign investment to its new capital Nusantara in East Kalimantan, which is in the middle of construction. Some civil servants, including ministers, will be moving to the new capital later in 2024.

Since its introduction, the golden visa has already brought in about two trillion rupiah (S$164 million), immigration director-general Silmy Karim told reporters.

Thailand's establishment silences voices of change (Nikkei Asia) 

The conjunction of Move Forward's dissolution ruling on Aug. 7 and Srettha's a week later, with Thaksin free to roam politically after the Aug. 22 expiry of his cushy one-year jail sentence, mean Thailand's democratic process has been shrewdly subverted.

Move Forward's dissolution appears a foregone conclusion, even though the party was the biggest poll winner. Formerly appointed by the military, the new Senate is under the control of royalist forces represented by Bhumjaithai. While Thaksin is kept on a lese-majeste leash, Srettha's continuation in office seems likely in view of his royal recognition, although Anutin would be a ready and willing replacement.

The 1975 sued over Malaysia concert with Matty Healy kiss (BBC)

During the band's headline performance last July, Healy also addressed the audience in a profanity-laden speech and kissed a fellow band member.

The company behind the Good Vibes Festival is seeking £1.9m ($2.4m) in compensation in the UK’s High Court over a violation of performance rules.

Homosexual acts are illegal in Malaysia and punishable by 20 years in prison. The festival does not allow talking about politics and religion, swearing, smoking or drinking alcohol on stage.

The BBC contacted the band who said "they have nothing to add at this time".