The Week Ahead: Paetongtarn gets on with it

Hello friends!

Today’s look ahead to the rest of the week isn’t strictly a look ahead. We’ve had so much going on it’s a little bit of a catch up too! 

Things are settling somewhat in Thailand, so that will give us a bit of space to get back on track. Fingers crossed no more two-newsletters-in-a-day anymore in our near future. 

Premium readers, see you tomorrow for an update on the rest of the Mekong. If you’re not on that list and would to join us please do so here:

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Paetongtarn Time

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party and daughter of Thaksin, was formally endorsed as prime minister by the King yesterday. It follows a vote by lawmakers on Friday in which she won around two-thirds of the house. And that, of course, follows the courts booting Srettha Thavisin. 

The royal endorsement didn’t have quite the pomp and circumstance I find fascinating from a monarchy, but still. Channel News Asia’s Saksith Saiyasombut report from yesterday has some nice footage.

Paetongtarn is now officially the youngest-ever prime minister in Thai history and the second woman, after her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra. She’s been welcomed by other leaders in the region, but that hasn’t stopped the tide of analysis pieces noting that just because a new leader is in doesn’t mean an end to the political mess since the last election. 

And how. The royals were busy yesterday — papa Thaksin was granted a royal pardon as part of King Vajiralongkorn’s birthday list. No surprises there but I’m watching and waiting to see what happens next. 

In the meantime, a new cabinet will have to be picked. It’s going to take three whole weeks, the Bangkok Post reports. It’s starting all over again: “I believe the current situation will encourage everyone to think collectively, and the new prime minister will have to talk with coalition partners to determine what is still appropriate in the current context,” Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said on Friday. 

🇻🇳 To Lam is in China

Vietnam’s top boss To Lam is in China this week where he will meet with both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, Reuters report. It’s his first visit to China since becoming both president and gen-sec and it “fully reflects the great importance he attaches to the development of ties between both parties and countries,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement. 

The Global Times is breathless. ‘Lam's choice of Guangzhou as his first stop in China holds historical significance as this year marks the 100th anniversary of Ho [Chi Minh’s] revolutionary activities in Guangdong,’ the outlet writes. This year has gotten me very curious about the way China and Vietnam speak about each other and I’m looking forward to hearing more this week.

🇮🇩 Jakarta election sees scandal brewing

Indonesia is gearing up for elections — again. In Jakarta, which is often seen as a forerunner to future presidential races, things are getting sloppy. Former governor of West Java, Ridwan Kamil, has his hand up (and the backing of just about every party in town). He’ll be facing down Dharma Pongrekun, a retired police general, who was approved to run as an independent last week.  

Would-be independent candidates need to be able to show the district or the province is broadly supportive of the endeavour and for Jakarta that means fronting up to the General Elections Commission (KPU) with hundreds of thousands of signatures and identity cards. 

The KPU has since been flooded with complaints that personal details have been used in support of Dharma and running-mate Kun Wardana without permission. The Jakarta Post reports that what’s actually happened here — and how nefarious it may be — is still up for debate, but the KPU is facing yet another reputational hit. “It appears that the KPU, as an election organiser, failed to ensure that the [candidates’] registration process was in line with procedures,” constitutional law expert Feri Amsari told the daily over the weekend. 

🇸🇬 A steady hand in Singapore

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took centre stage last night in his first-ever National Day address. He announced some impressive reforms, especially in paid parental leave, and a weirdly interesting aside about a town named Singapore in Michigan, US. The Straits Times has a handy breakdown of the announced policies and why they matter here.

While he is a fresh face, he did at times sound very much like his predecessor Lee Hsien Loong. Singapore remains stuck in the middle of an “intensifying rivalry” between China and the US, he said. He also rang a warning bell on social cohesion (another LHL favourite): “We have seen what happens in other countries when the broad middle falls behind: societies begin to fracture and collapse. Do not assume this cannot happen here. It can,” Wong said, as per the Financial Times. 

Gotta read this week:

Chinese tourists flock to Malaysia’s Kota Kinabalu to snap pic of ‘Instagrammable’ bank (Straits Times)

Posts on the platform advise visitors to the city to add the spot to their city walk itinerary, and make a pilgrimage to da ka – or “check in” – in Chinese social media parlance.

Equally bemused by the spot going viral, KK MP Chan Foong Hin visited Gaya Street to speak to some of the tourists there and – naturally – get a few shots.

Indonesia holds first Independence Day event in new capital (Nikkei Asia) 

Jokowi, who gave his annual state of the nation address on Friday in parliament in Jakarta, did not give a speech. But he told reporters on Saturday afternoon that Nusantara's construction is expected to trigger wealth growth in central and eastern parts of Indonesia, after many decades of development being concentrated in western parts of the sprawling archipelago.

"Every region must have an equal [slice of the] cake," he said. "Development ... shouldn't be Java-centric, but it should be Indonesia-centric."

Will Move Forward Party’s Dissolution Cause Another Wave of Youth-led Protests in Thailand? (Fulcrum)

The relatively quiet response from the Thai youth is noteworthy for several reasons. MFP and its former leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, who led the party to victory in 2023, were especially popular among young Thais. More importantly, the dissolution of MFP is largely a rerun of another watershed episode in Thai politics from 2020. MFP’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved and its executive committee members barred from politics, after unexpectedly strong election results. Most of the members of parliament from Future Forward moved to MFP, which became the successor of Future Forward’s progressive policies.

Yet, a more significant consequence of Future Forward’s dissolution lies beyond party politics. As Future Forward and its leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit were extremely popular among young people, its dissolution was often credited as one of the triggers for the 2020 student-led pro-democracy protests. Indeed, on the night of Future Forward’s dissolution, “flash” rallies were held across various university campuses, which later snowballed into large-scale protests.