Hello friends!

I promised a Myanmar update on Friday but I accidentally lied. I forgot it was my birthday and instead spent the day collecting orders from the Asia Bookroom and eating potato scallops with my granddad. 

A day off ahead of a very busy week may have been a wise move. I’m nervous about the South China Sea, where a meeting between diplomats from Beijing and Manila may not hold for long at all. I’m also very curious about what’s happening between the Myanmar junta and China. In Indonesia, new tariffs may well cause a headache for the government and I never know what’s going on in Malaysia but I try my hardest. 

Thank you to all premium subscribers who help support this free weekly update. If you’d like to join that list, please do so here:

See you then,
Erin Cook

What I’m watching this week

🇵🇭 Another week on choppy waters

It was a busy weekend for the Philippine Coast Guard after it revealed an enormous 165-metre vessel from the Chinese Coast Guard was spotted encroaching on the Philippines EEZ on July 2, Reuters reports. “It's an intimidation on the part of the China Coast Guard. We're not going to pull out and we're not going to be intimidated,” PGC spokesperson Jay Tarriela told reporters on Saturday. 

The Inquirer later reported that similar vessels were seen intercepting two PGC vessels on Sunday near the Second Thomas Shoal. “Philippines Coast Guard BRP Cabra and BRP Cape Engano now passing, 14 nautical miles (nm) east of Second Thomas Shoal. They have been intercepted by China Coast Guard 5203 and at least six China maritime militia vessels, now closely shadowing,” Ray Powell posted, as reported by the Inquirer. PGC has not confirmed the report. 

The timing here is intriguing. Assuming eventual confirmation of Sunday’s breaking news, these two incidents sandwich an enormous meeting last week between China and the Philippines in Manila. That meeting came in the shadow of the mid-June clash in which one Filipino lost a finger and sparked a flurry of headlines about the US defence treaty. 

Both sides “affirmed their commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions. There was substantial progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea, but significant differences remain,” the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said in a statement, as per the AP. 

Now what? 

🇲🇲 Second junta boss heads to China

Vice-Senior General Soe Win, the second-in-command in Myanmar’s military junta, touched down in Shandong province, China, over the weekend, AFP reports here. He’s attending the Green Development Forum hosted by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, as per junta media. 

It’s interesting timing. Soe Win’s boss, Min Aung Hlaing, hasn’t popped over since seizing control of the country and it comes right as the China-brokered peace deal in northern Shan state collapsed. China-Myanmar junta relations are a tricky, tricky business so I’ll be watching enthusiastically for analysis in the coming days. 

🇹🇭 Red light for cannabis in Thailand

As long threatened by the Srettha Thaivisin government, cannabis is back on the naughty list. Cannabis and hemp will both be reclassified as narcotics from Jan. 1 following a committee meeting led by Dr Surachoke Tangwiwat, deputy permanent secretary at the Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok Post reports. Not unexpected by any means but certainly very puzzling on how this will work in practice. 

Cannabis has already become a major industry in Thailand and those stakeholders won’t be going down easily. Demonstrations planned for this week will see pro-cannabis advocates make their case for keeping the drug accessible. 

Former health minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose CV includes changing the laws that allowed cannabis to prosper like this, wants answers. He says the same committee that wants recriminalisation voted to decriminalise it during his era, so what gives? “We've relaxed the regulations to allow people to make use of cannabis. What will happen to people who grow cannabis? Will they face legal action? What about some 8,000 cannabis-related offenders who were freed in June 2022?” 

🇮🇩 Business bites back in Indonesia

Massive new tariffs flagged by Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan last week are not the answer says Arsjad Rasjid, chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told Nikkei Asia. The Ministry is eyeing up to 200% tariffs on ‘imported footwear, clothing, textiles, cosmetics and ceramics,’ Nikkei notes, in an effort to safeguard local industries from cheap imports manufactured elsewhere in Asia. 

“The [minister's] spirit is good for the industry, ... but [it is] not the solution,” Arsjad said. “The key is governance … so that there is a fair competition.” 

Business might not be happy, but the Ministry is tossing up extending the tariff program further. Electronics are on the agenda, Bloomberg reports, adding that the Minister flagged introducing the tariff on products from the European Union and Australia also. “We are not targeting a certain country,” Zulkifli said on Friday after days of headlines pointing to Chinese imports. 

🇲🇾 The Najib spectre haunts, but not from home

Najib Razak is not going anywhere, the Kuala Lumpur High Court ruled last Wednesday. His legal team argued the former prime minister should serve his monumental corruption sentences at home but the court found that a no-go and declined a full hearing, Al Jazeera reports. Najib will appeal. “The court said there is no legal duty but in terms of ethics, the government should have answered,” his lawyer Muhammad Shafee Abdullah told media. 

With poor showings for Najib’s UMNO in recent by-elections, the ruling appears to have hit the party hard, as Malaysiakini reports here. UMNO supreme council member Puad Zarkashi vented over the weekend that until Najib is freed, the party will leak Malay support: “For UMNO members and Najib's sympathisers, as long as he is denied his rights and fair trial, they will hesitate. Malay support will not recover.” I love an introspective time for UMNO, so I’m looking forward to see what this train of thought produces. 

🇲🇾 The Tun inches on a ton 

It would be remiss of me not to note another big birthday this July. Former prime minister and the eldest of regional elder statesmen Mahathir Mohamad will turn 99 on Wednesday. He sat down with Sinar Daily at the end of June to chat all things politics, raising his concerns about the current leadership and the economic stresses of everyday Malaysians. American readers may want to skip that one, he’s in very lucid form. 

Interesting reads

Indonesian band takes stand for Taiwan’s migrant workers (Al Jazeera) 

Originally from the town of Indramayu in West Java, Rudi struggled to find work in his home country. “It’s hard to find a job in Indonesia, almost impossible,” he told Al Jazeera. “I didn’t have any permanent job. I did everything I could.”

Rudi moved to Taiwan in 2015 to operate heavy machinery in a factory. Like many of the island’s 768,000-odd migrant workers, he was looking for employment and the chance to build a better life.

But the reality is often more complicated. While migrant workers earn more in Taiwan, many find themselves exploited, trapped in debt or facing physical and sexual abuse. In the face of this, many are pushing back, forming labour unions and NGOs, and engaging in protests varying from flash mob dances to musical performances.

Southeast Asian militant group Jemaah Islamiyah to be disbanded, say its senior leaders (Reuters) 

In the statement, captured on video and shared online, the leaders confirmed their commitment to the Indonesian state and law, and said all material taught in JI-affiliated boarding schools would be in line with orthodox Islam.

"It is too early to say what the consequences are, but the men who signed the statement have enough respect and credibility within the organisation to ensure widespread acceptance," said Sidney Jones, who authored IPAC's preliminary analysis.

The ‘fearless young activists’ thrown in jail for climate campaigns in Cambodia (CNN)

But it’s on TikTok that their videos really make an impression on young Cambodian users like Run Bunry, a high-school student from the capital Phnom Penh and his friends. “They are positive and lighthearted and also teach us a lot about the environment,” he said.

One video, highlighting an investigation into the alleged illegal export of rare silica sand, showed three members buried up to their heads in sand and was shared more than 1,000 times. Another viral video taken along a beach in the coastal city Sihanoukville showed the extent of alleged illegal construction by hotels and casinos on the shore.