The week ahead: Waiting and watching the South China Sea

Hello friends!

A bit of a break in structure here since we need to look back at something concrete and forward at something that might not even happen — and then there’s whatever Thailand is up to. 

This week will be vital to the South China Sea conflict, so will be watching that closely. In Vietnam, Putin swung by Hanoi and I gotta be honest, the Vietnamese English-language media has not seemed to care at all. And in Thailand, a brilliant look at the military while we wait for the senate results.

Erin Cook

🇵🇭 Manila happy to call it an ‘accident’ to keep the peace

It’s a make or break week in the South China Sea, I fear. 

On the waters, it’s been somewhat quiet since last week’s explosive clash in which one Pinoy soldier lost a finger and tensions reached a new peak. 

We are definitely not trying to start anything, says President Bongbong Marcos Jr, but nor is the Philippines for turning. “In defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature that we would like to settle all these issues peacefully,” he said during an address to troops of the Western Command unit, which oversees the waters, Reuters reports. 

Other countries have spent the week voicing their support for Manila and that appears to be winding China right up. What have you got to do with this, is the message from the Chinese Embassy in Japan after Tokyo issued a statement of support. Japan has “no right to intervene,” the embassy said as reported by Nikkei Asia. This is in the shadow of the East Japan Sea dispute and the recent DC meeting between Japan, the Philippines and the US, which probably explains the hair-trigger from Beijing.  

Crucially, the Marcos government has confirmed it has not yet considered attempting to invoke the Mutual Defence Treaty with the US. “We are not yet ready to classify this as an armed attack. I think this is a matter that can easily be resolved by us and if China wants to work with us, we can work with China,” Marcos’ executive secretary, Lucas Bersamin, told a briefing on Friday. The clash between the Filipino navy and the Chinese coast guard “was probably a misunderstanding or an accident,” he said. 

🇻🇳 Hanoi hosts Putin, but there’s more in the past than the future

It happened! Russian President Vladimir Putin came to town on Thursday and the sky did not collapse (though there were some bizarre words about Ukraine). The Russia-Vietnam relationship is one that will always live in its own fascinating historical shadow, and even the most interesting reports of the visit have reflected mostly on the shifts in that. 

“Congratulations to our comrade for receiving overwhelming support during the recent presidential election, underlining the confidence of the Russian people,” President To Lam told the visitor before the pair shuffled off for closed-door talks. 

The two countries will focus on “building solid, relevant security architecture in Asia … on the principles of the nonuse of force and a peaceful settlement of disputes,” Putin said, as reported by the Washington Post. Lam and Putin signed 11 MoUs in all sorts of areas including ‘civil nuclear projects, energy and petrol cooperation, education and disease prevention,’ the Guardian reports. 

I have to say, I’ve been mildly impressed with the lack of histrionics from certain corners of the US. Only spotted a few livid finger-pointing posts and comments which, I think, are unhelpful to the US in the long run and embarrassing in the short run. This slow acceptance from the US — and I better include my own 51st-state foreign policy country in here too — that chiding over visits and relationships with other powers, or in Russia’s case “powers,” is quite repellant is maybe beginning to pay off. (Someone tell Anwar.) 

Which, of course, isn’t to say we shouldn’t reject Putin and his agenda. This report from the Guardian on the Vietnamese community in Ukraine and how it has been dealing with the last few years of Russian aggression is fascinating. For Tung Nguyen, originally of Hanoi but now a proud Ukrainian, the war has changed everything. “Before the start of full-scale war, I didn’t know many Vietnamese people, but now they support me a lot. Lots of Vietnamese people wrote me messages of support, people brought food to the hospital,” he told the outlet.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh hasn’t got much time to mull it over. He’s off to China this week where he’ll attend the World Economic Forum in Dalian City, Liaoning Province. And he’ll be paying his own way, Reuters reports. 

🇹🇭 Mark it down, the first time someone has raised the c-word in print (this season)!

Voting in Thailand’s senate elections should conclude this week and results to be announced July 2, Al Jazeera reports here. Watch for a conservative surge, Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University, flags. With two senators tasked with two key roles: “Constitutional change requires one-third of the 200 new senators. Equally important, the new senators will have oversight over appointments of the Election Commission and Constitutional Court,” he told the outlet. It’s quietly a battleground: “There will likely be moves by the conservative establishment, including the Election Commission, to make sure the Senate does not end up with enough progressive voices to change the constitution.” 

Ruchapong Chamjirachaikul, from legal advocacy group iLaw, is guarded: “The problems you see in the process are a feature not a bug… a lot of them are by design.” Call it a “selection” since it’s an “election” in name only, he adds. 

And then there’s the military. Promotions are imminent and who wins control — the royalist establishment, or Pheu Thai — ‘could determine whether one side gains some influence over the military,’ Marwaan Macan-markar writes for Nikkei Asia. I work really hard to get across Thai politics, but throw the military in and I’m done. This is an excellent piece for explaining all to someone like me why it matters. And the keyword is ‘coup.’ While there’s certainly nothing concrete, the talk in Bangkok is reportedly mulling the possibility. 

🇸🇬 To be having a smoko at Maxwell MRT

Have you been vaguely following this one in Singapore? Across from the Maxwell MRT is, in my view, a marvellous sight. An enormous mural depicting a samsui woman relaxing with a cigarette. It’s “offensive” and she looks like a “prostitute,” say the haters (probably worth a probe into the complainant's head for that connection), and they want the Urban Redevelopment Authority to take it down. Singapore-based American artist Sean Dunston behind the works has been floating ideas to amend his works in response to the outrage. 

Come on, relax! Say supporters of the mural including tourist operators and Singapore’s notorious Reddit users. “Why are we trying to change history?” one user noted, adding that for many samsui women, a cigarette break was one of few respites from hard work. While the mural was completed without official approval, it will be allowed to stay put during a review period.

This is the first time I think I’ve ever heard about samsui women and I’ve become very interested. What a fascinating group of tough women — any further reading recommendations, please let me know.  

Interesting reads

Young men trapped between war and conscription in Myanmar’s Rakhine (Al Jazeera) 

This outstanding piece from Emily Fishbein and Myo Thazin Nwe takes a look at what life is like in Rakhine State for young people trying to dodge violence and conscription at every turn. What really gets me is each of the four profiled here tried multiple times to get out and find safety, but found themselves confronted by a new challenge no matter what. These personal looks at how the crisis is defining lives always get me and this is one of the best. 

While these actions may have been intended to stop the flow of information and recruits to the AA, for Thura Maung, they had the opposite effect. Nearly a week after he was arrested, he sneaked away and headed towards an AA camp. “I felt lost,” he said. “I attempted to enter the AA without letting my parents know, because I thought it was the only certain thing I could do.”

A relative talked him out of it, however; now back in Myebon, where he is safe from military conscription because the AA controls the town, he still fears he could become the next victim of the military’s attacks. “I feel safer living in Myebon, but I still have to worry about air strikes,” he said.

What’s next for VP Sara: Go Macapagal or go Arroyo? (Rappler)

Last week was chaotic for the political order in the Philippines, but this is a country rich with precedent. Vice President Sara Duterte has a few options on how she wants to play it now the alliance with President Bongbong Marcos has collapsed. With an eye to the presidential elections of 2028 — in which Marcos will be barred from contesting — John Nery takes a look at the vice presidents of the past and how they used their platforms to vy for the big job.

Based on a reading of the many comments from Duterte supporters on social media, it seems that a good number would favor what I would call the Arroyo option. I do not mean to suggest that Gloria Arroyo, then the vice president, worked actively behind the scenes in early 2001 to undermine President Estrada; I only mean to say that the idea, held by quite a number of supporters of both the former president and his daughter, that Marcos Jr. can be forced to resign and that Sara Duterte can then replace him, is not fiction but rather fantasy fed on the events of 2001. 

Thailand's marriage equality a rare win in Asia's fight for LGBTQ rights (Nikkei Asia)

Last week’s spectacular marriage equality news in Thailand has ricocheted across the region and that’s been both good and bad. For conservative busybodies, it’s been a nightmare for yelling into the uncaring void on social media, but for sexual minorities abroad it’s a beacon of hope. Thailand’s long road to this point and, as advocates stress, the road ahead on full rights, have helped re-energise similar pushes abroad. 

The equal marriage movement gained steam during the mass demonstrations of 2020, triggered by the dissolution of the progressive Future Forward Party. During the nine-year rule of Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, social conservatives drafted bills to recognize civil partnerships between same-sex couples.

"Civil partnership doesn't give equal rights. It is a new term in our laws, and many minor laws would have to be changed, so it would take longer," said Tunyawaj Kamolwongwat, a gender rights activist and member of parliament with the Move Forward Party.