The Week Ahead: Thaksin faces lese-majeste charges while the Philippines splits on divorce

Hello friends!

Holy smokes did I jinx myself. After bragging about my new schedule, I was immediately felled by this revolting head cold working its way through everyone I’ve ever met in Canberra. But Sunday morning I noticed myself breathing freely and thanked the gods for Vicks Vaporub and Codral — we’re back! 

For today: a couple of short updates on key stories as well as the reading/watching I’ve been catching up on. 

Premium readers expect bumper newsletters tomorrow and Thursday, and the Myanmar update on Friday is available for everyone. 

See you then!

Erin Cook

Thaksin’s in trouble

That outstanding lese-majeste charge on Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is outstanding no more after the Attorney General moved forward last week. The charge dates back to an interview with a South Korean newspaper nine years ago, adding him to the list of hundreds of Thais who face charges of insulting the monarchy. 

Lese-majeste charges are, in my view, dirty at the best of times, but this one feels wildly transparent. The potential popped back up as Thaksin was pardoned for his previous charges in which he was briefly jailed(ish). Upon release, he got straight to work drumming up support in his former political strongholds to the north and was, allegedly, the crux of a sloppy cabinet reshuffle. That could well be seen as too much power for an ex-PM to wield. 

As Jonathan Head writes in his analysis for the BBC: “Mr. Thaksin’s lawyers say they are confident of defending him in court; but in the typically protracted period before he is likely to go to trial this indictment may force him to limit his political ambitions.”

Thaksin will be summoned on June 18, so expect this one to drag on a while. 

On divorce, Filipinos are split

As the Philippines’ historical bill legalising divorce heads to the Senate, polling firm Social Weather Stations has found half the country in support and 31% rejecting the proposal. SWS reports a drop in last year’s record highs for those who both ‘moderately’ and ‘very’ strongly support divorce legislation, the Inquirer reports. 

According to Rappler, serious campaigns from the Catholic Church and other Christian groups are well underway after the House passed the bill last month, which is upping the pressure. Still, in the Senate we’ve got some idea of how it may break down, Rappler reports. Seven Senators are believed to be in support including Grace Poe, who has made comments in the past noting it is an issue of safety for women and children and less a question of religion. 

Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada is against the move, suggesting a “marriage nullification” instead which seems, to me, to be an expensive endeavour that would effectively grant divorces — but only to those who can afford it. Brand new Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero is also against it, instead wanting to make nullification cheaper and more accessible. 

Things I read from my sick bed

Mahathir warns of looming 'third world war' amid rising tensions (Nikkei)

There’s something about Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia’s two-time prime minister/elder statesman (and many other less generous titles). He talks some sense and a lot of garbage and when there’s a Q and A it’s a lucky dip on what that ratio will be. This longer chat with Norman Goh at Nikkei Asia’s Future of Asia Forum is a perfect example. Come for the geopolitical analysis, stay for the geriatric-on-geriatric sledging. 

When asked about his views on the US presidential election this November, Mahathir said voters have little to choose from between President Joe Biden, 81, and former President Donald Trump, 77, as both are undesirable.

"We notice that Biden is obviously aging. I don't think he will provide dynamic leadership for the US, and they will not fare well under him, even in foreign relations. On the other hand, we have Trump, and he is a very erratic character. What he did doesn't make sense," said Mahathir.

Political nostalgia (Mekong Review)

The inauguration of Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto won’t happen for a few months yet, so I hope we continue getting these post-election autopsies. I still have moments of occasional perplexity about how the world got here so the more the merrier, I say. This piece from Sylvie Tanaga, and freed from the paywall for now, is an interesting look at how a variety of young Indonesians think and feel about Suharto, the New Order period and Prabowo’s connection to it. 

“Young people are one of the most vulnerable age groups in Indonesia and I feel sad that we often demand change from young people,” [Ben Laksana] said. “Many of them don’t even have an income and their future is uncertain because of the threat of economic precarities, war, epidemics, the climate crisis and so on.” As with societies in other parts of the world, the generation of Indonesians now coming of age are facing a highly unequal and uncertain future. The pressures of the modern world—coupled with revisionist accounts of the supposed ‘good old days’—could prime people to long for a return to a past that never truly existed.

After a quarter century, Thailand’s LGBTQ Pride Parade is seen as a popular and political success (Associated Press)

Thailand is sooo close to becoming the first country in Southeast Asia to legalise marriage equality, so this year’s Pride Parade in Bangkok has taken on extra significance. This report on Saturday’s event from the AP shows it wasn’t always rainbow flags and heavy-hitter lawmakers in attendance, the roots are very different. 

But the public celebration of gender diversity was not always so popular in Thailand despite its long-standing reputation as an LGBTQ+ friendly country.

The first big celebration for the community in Thailand was held on Halloween weekend in 1999 and called the “Bangkok Gay Festival.” It was organized by Pakorn Pimton, who said that after seeing Pride parades on his overseas travels, he wanted Thailand to have one, too.

It was hard organizing such an event back then, when Thai society was much less open, he said.

Here comes Voice of Baceprot. Hailing from Garut, West Java, the hijab-clad English-and-Sundanese singing all-gal trio will take Glastonbury this year — the first Indonesian band in the festival’s history. VOB are in that weird ‘features because of their demographics’ area but I think this is going to help blast that all away. Lucky Glasto.  

The Raid is a lot of things, including ‘recently rereleased in 4k’ and ‘not for me, exactly, but still an experience.’ The Indonesian action classic features pencak silat, the brilliant traditional martial arts found across the archipelago, and a hell of a lot of fellas getting stabbed in the neck. It’s out now in Australian cinemas for the next couple of days and possibly elsewhere, don’t know. If you can swing it, go see it.  

And in movies I haven’t seen but am desperate to: How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies. This Thai tear-jerker has won the hearts of everyone I know in Southeast Asia so consider this a very public begging to anyone in the Thai government who may read this. Free Pheu Thai soft power idea — bankroll this showing in Australia please I want to see it immediately.