The Week Ahead: Happy New Year across the Mekong as Thailand eyes the Myanmar border

Only four things to watch this week because I need to write properly, on length about Apollo Quiboloy and all of his cases and if I do it here it will dominate everything. We also need to chat about Bongbong Marcos Jr’s trip to DC. And then there’s this ‘are Indonesia and Israel about to be friends’ story (short answer: no) so I’ll see you nice and early Tuesday with a looooong maritime update. 

If you’re not already on that list upgrade now here:

In the meantime, enjoy!

Erin Cook

A wet, dry and tempered New Year across the Mekong

Happy Khmer New Year! Celebrations in the country started Sunday and will finish tomorrow. Budgets are stressed, so don’t expect anything huge at Angkor Wat but there will be plenty of celebrations elsewhere. I’m looking forward to the photos but here are some from CamboJA to take us through.

In Thailand, Songkran is well underway and I have seen more than enough photos of tourists looking like drowned rats. I don’t mind the Pita Limjaroenrat snaps, though. It’s a tough season this year in Samui, where taps have gone dry as heat bites. “Last year, the water came every other day, but this week, it hasn’t run for 2-3 days in a row,” barbershop owner Wachirawut Kulaphetkamthorn told the Guardian. 

One eye on Songkran, the other on the Mae Sot/Myawaddy border

There is a LOT to watch in Myanmar this week and after the last month or so, the trend seems to be something I haven’t even heard of yet will pop up and dominate. 

Still, the border with Thailand is one to watch. Locals fleeing violence or anticipating airstrikes in Myawaddy are heading to the border with Mae Sot. “They can't bomb Thailand,” Moe Moe Thet San, a Myawaddy resident, told Reuters. Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara told media Friday that the country is bracing for more residents to make the trip this week. 

What about military, who have been reportedly abandoning the force in droves? “They have to drop their weapons, change into civilian clothes before we would allow them to cross over the border,” Parnpree said. 

Duterte, please just tell us what happened with Beijing so we can start to move on

We’ll touch on the Philippines visit to DC (Japan was there too, but we know it was the Bongbong show) later this week. But for now, it’s the beef between President Bongbong Marcos and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte that will dominate this week. Duterte’s ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with Beijing during his presidency was revealed a few weeks back and shocked — especially revelations that Duterte promised to keep away from BRP Sierra Madre, the ship now acting as a Filipino outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal. 

‘Fess up! Marcos said over the weekend. “What did you give away? Why are our friends in China mad at us for not sticking [to the deal]?” he demanded, as per the Inquirer. Relax, said the ex-prez. He would be “expounding” on the whole shebang once he reviewed “all documents of Malacanang about foreign policy” about security during his presidency. Now, I can’t say anything for sure, but I remember six years of Duterte and I sincerely doubt he’s got a nicely organised file system of that period which he will simply dip into and this will all get cleared up. 

Is it coming to a head or is it just another week of bullshit? Who can say for sure! 

A death sentence in Saigon last week, what will this one bring?

Last week, real estate tycoon Truong My Lan was sentenced to death for her role in the enormous bank embezzlement case we’ve been talking about forever. So, what comes next? Truong is one of dozens and dozens implicated in the $12.5 billion case, but she’s by far the most high-profile. It’s a “big turning point,” says ISEAS’s Nguyen Khac Giang of Vietnam’s years-long anticorruption drive that (allegedly) felled Vo Van Thuong among others in recent months. 

Do Thi Nhan, the former ‘head of the banking inspection department under the State Bank of Vietnam,’ is going down for life after accepting bribes. ‘She should be punished with the highest sentence (death) but because she had submitted in full the money taken and because her family had made major contributions to the country, she instead got life sentence,’ VN Express reported. 

With so many other co-defendants on the ticket and a very un-lenient feeling judiciary, expect a busy week (and months) but I’m really keeping an eye out for more analysis. How deep does the rot go, someone tell us!! 

Reads you better not miss

Fears of discrimination in Thailand despite looming same sex marriage bill (Al Jazeera) 

Thailand has developed a reputation as an LGBT safe haven in a region not known for its acceptance of gender and sexual diversity. But that’s not really the full picture, even with the moves towards marriage equality. “It’s a cause for celebration. [But] it is important to ensure that the more inclusive and gender-neutral language “parents” is included in future revisions to prevent any discriminatory application of the Civil and Commercial Code. We remain steadfast in our call for full protection and recognition of LGBTI+ rights,” Mookdapa Yangyuenpradorn, a Thailand human rights associate at Fortify Rights, tells Al Jazeera in this piece. 

How food crosses Malaysia's ethno-religious boundaries (Nikkei Asia) 

Every country has their great democratiser. Where I’m from, it’s the humble thong — the flip flop, if you’re sickening — in Malaysia, it’s the mamak restaurants that dot every city and town. ‘Mamak restaurants also serve favorite Malay dishes such as nasi lemak, Chinese-style mie goreng, creamy North Indian curries and Western dishes like chips or mysterious adaptations of lamb chops,’ writes Joe Rachman for Nikkei Asia. 

Chinese / Indonesian (Mekong Review)

I read everything Yudhistira Agato writes and this is him at his best. The story of Chinese-Indonesian communities and all of the garbage they’ve endured over generations is one I’ve read about many times in books, but speaking to a friend about what their family specifically experienced is a different insight. Yudhis’s piece here for the latest Mekong Review is not like that conversation, it’s more an eavesdrop on a man speaking with his father and reconciling their shared past. 

👀 🇹🇭The Believers on Netflix

Far be it for me to do free advertising for the world’s largest stream service, but a Thai temple scam and monkhood intrigue? Say less.