đŸ‡č🇭 This Sunday

Dare I say it, it's... crossroads time

Hello friends!

Last one before millions of Thais flock to the polls on Sunday to vote. Here are a bunch of links I’ve enjoyed reading in the last couple of days. I also read and loved Duncan McCargo’s Future Forward book which looks at the rise and fall of the party, which has really helped me to understand the basis for Move Forward.  

It’s only just beginning! Stay safe out there, Thai readers Erin Cook

I’m a big fan of these ‘five things you should know’ that Nikkei Asia drops occasionally. Their pre-poll day one published today is great. It quotes the final polls and shows us the shape of what to expect: “Pheu Thai is expected to win the most seats, but its push for a 310-seat landslide is fading as Move Forward closes the polling gap. In a survey released on May 3 by the National Institute of Development Administration, 33.96% of respondents said they would vote for Move Forward constituency candidates — up 12.76 points from the previous survey — compared with 38.32% favouring Pheu Thai.” 

So what will we know after polls close Sunday night? Hmm, not too sure. The Election Commission said it would release unofficial results later in the night but that bed was shat back in 2019 when it made similar promises and then bungled the data. Official results will take 60 days, Coconuts Bangkok reported. 

It’s not just the results voters should be watching, Thai Enquirer’s Erich Parpart wrote today. Erich is always a big swinger but I’m going to quote this paragraph in full: “In every way, the 2019 election was rigged from the start, and in many ways, this election is still being rigged since the junta-drafted charter is still in effect, the appointed senate is still in power, and we still have the same Election Commission members.”

And if you can take it at their word, the military has ruled out another coup. No problem, then!

How does Pheu Thai stay winning?

Despite everything (EVERYTHING) that has happened this century, the dastardly Pheu Thai juggernaut just will not stay down. Speaking to the BBC, Paetongtarn Shinawatra says it’s because the party — founded by her father Thaksin Shinawatra — offers ordinary Thais policies that matter to them. 

“I think after eight years the people want better politics, better solutions for the country than just coup d'etats. They are seeking policies that will help their lives,” she said this week. 

Those coups ousted Dad Thaksin and Aunty Yingluck but are a partial explanation for Pheu Thai’s enduring popularity. “Because the last coup d'etat resulted in two military-backed governments which failed miserably in economic performance and in dealing with the Covid pandemic, the popularity of its main opponent Pheu Thai remains high,” Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, told BBC. 

Move Forward hasn’t got the legacy of Pheu Thai, but they have got a shed load of bikes

Good news for us, Jonathan Head has been flat out this week so here’s another treat from the BBC. He joined Move Forward’s Rukchanok "Ice" Srinork on her campaign trail in Bang Bon, Bangkok. Ice and her volunteers have been cycling around the neighbourhood in sweltering heat ahead of the election. 

"I think that I'm doing this partly out of feeling guilty that I was part of a movement that encouraged the coup, a crime against 70 million people. At that time, I agreed with it and thought it was the right answer for the country. But later I asked myself, how could that happen? How could this nation support a freaking coup? And that's when I became taa sawang."

‘Taa Sawang,’ as Head explains it, translates to ‘bright eyes’ and is a term used by younger Thais who have become “enlightened about previously taboo topics, in particular the monarchy.”

Chonticha "Kate" Jangrew is another candidate running with Move Forward told Head her taa sawang moment came while she was still at university — and she has the student activist cred to prove it. “I have 28 criminal charges against me,” she said, including two under the draconian lese majeste laws. “But that shows you I am brave enough to speak out when I see something that needs to happen for our country.”

A fresh generation makes their stand

There’s a lot of great reporting on the excitement surrounding Move Forward and Pheu Thai at rallies and the success of digital campaigning, but I found this one from the Straits Times intriguing for another reason.

Tipanan Sirichana, 39, is an outlier in the Millennial candidate cohort (or so it seems to me!). She’s running with the United Thai Nation Party, which is fielding Prayuth Chan-o-cha for another tilt. It hasn’t all been fun and games for her on the hustings and she’s had to answer to why she’s backing the deeply unpopular incumbent: “But I have seen the way he works and his plans on how to improve Thailand. So, I believe in him and in the party policies,” she told the ST.

The piece is a broader look at how candidates are trending younger in Thailand (mostly — prime minister candidate Prawit Wongsuwan is 77) and that’s not strictly a progressive-wing phenomenon. 

Olarn believes “Pita fever” is rising because of his clear political stance. The Move Forward leader has declared repeatedly that his party will not join a government with coup leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha or his cohort General Prawit Wongsuwan. Although the Pheu Thai Party, which also hails from the pro-democracy camp, has delivered a similar message, it has wavered or sought to be vague over its stance from time to time.

“Also, Move Forward is good at debating and campaigning on stage,” the academic commented. “Its debaters have knowledge, information, and strong rhetoric.”

When messages are concise and clear, they can be spread easily and quickly on social media, he added. Hence, Move Forward has an online army of canvassers, or people who voluntarily help promote it, because they support its messages via social media.

Mr Pita said he believed that series of events had left a legacy of anger that would propel the Move Forward vote.

"I'm sure the frustration is there and it will be shown in the ballot, for sure," he said.

"Thais will prove that ballot is stronger than the bullets, back like how [American] President Abraham Lincoln said 200 years ago, will happen in Thailand this year."

Mr Pita's family is no stranger to politics. He is the nephew of Padung Limjaroenrat, a close aide of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while his later father was an adviser to the Ministry of Agriculture.

In the 2019 election, Pheu Thai won more than 77 percent of the votes in the upper north region, according to calculations by Chanintorn Pensute, a political scientist from Chiang Mai University. Nearly all of its 136 constituency seats came from the north and northeast, with the party winning only one seat south of Bangkok.

The Shinawatras tap into a deep if muted regional pride. The northern Lanna kingdom was annexed to Siam – as Thailand was then known – in 1899 but continued to retain some autonomy until 1939. Its different language, alphabet, and culture all remain points of pride for the local population.

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