The year ahead in Southeast Asia

Elections, tech and the Myanmar crisis

January 07, 2022

Hello friends!

Welcome back for a whole new year! 

This year I’m super excited to put together something I’ve wanted to do for a long time — a Dari Mulut ke Mulut book club! I’ll have more info soon about what book we’ll be starting with and how it’s going to look, but for now, get ready to dial up the nerd one step further in 2022.

Today I’ve put together a few of the key stories and issues that I’m particularly interested in the next few months ahead. Between a one year anniversary in Myanmar, elections in the Philippines and an excited Hun Sen chairing Asean, I think it’s going to be a big one. 

In personal news, my plan to quit my job at a medical clinic here in Canberra at the start of this year has been put on hold thanks to the Omicron variant and a huge demand for booster shots. So, the publishing schedule will be mixed up again and probably with the region-wide look for premium subscribers on Wednesdays and then nice freebies like this one on most Fridays. 

Stay safe out there!Erin Cook

🇲🇲 A year on in Myanmar

Next month marks one year since the coup which jailed much of the democratically-elected government, disrupted pandemic efforts and upset the lives — and indeed killed many — of every Myanmar citizen. It’s hard (and probably a bit false) to feel particularly optimistic about the year ahead for Myanmar. 

December ended with hideous reports of massacres in which dozens of people, including NGO workers, were killed by military forces and airstrikes continued pressure along the Thai border. This year, as we surpass the first anniversary, I’ll be paying close attention to the hyper-resilient pro-democracy movement, relations between the junta and the world (particularly China, India, Thailand and, of course, Asean). I’ll be doing that by sticking close to Frontier Myanmar, which has had a tumultuous year and is back to publishing the insight the English-language world desperately needs. 

But for Yangon resident Ko Pyae Soe, a salesperson in his late 20s, refusing a jab from the military-controlled public health system is all about making a political statement against the February 1 coup d’état. 

“I don’t want to legitimise [the junta’s] actions,” Pyae Soe said, adding that he knew many people who felt similarly, and would not take vaccines offered by the regime.

The National League for Democracy government toppled by the military began rolling out the country’s vaccination program just days before the coup, after acquiring 3.5 million jabs from India.

Pyae Soe said he was angry that after the coup the junta had distributed these vaccines as though it was the one that had procured them. 

If you pay closer attention to the senders, you’ll see that all are more or less pariah states, while some have leaders with personal interests in the regime. Russia, Serbia and Belarus sell arms to the Myanmar military, while Cambodia’s prime minister is trying to promote himself as a so-called peace broker between Myanmar and ASEAN. North Korea is a hermit state under a dictatorship. Missing from the list is China, India and Thailand. Their absence is made all the more conspicuous by the fact that the regime occasionally praises them as “our good neighbors”—China for its reliable vetos of any resolutions critical of the regime at the UN Security Council, and India for its assistance with military hardware. As for Thailand, Min Aung Hlaing has personal ties with elites in the country’s leadership.

It would be fair to recall the world’s reaction to Myanmar’s Independence Day one year ago, under the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy government, which was later ousted by the coup. For the record, both President U Win Myint and State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi were showered with felicitations from such global dignitaries as Donald Trump, Queen Elizabeth II, Xi Jinping, Joko Widodo, Moon Jae-in and others. In a nutshell, the NLD government still received a total of 38 messages from heads of state near and far, from North America and Europe to the Middle East and Africa, Asia and Australia, as well as the Caribbean nation of Cuba, despite international condemnation for its silence on the military’s mistreatment of the Rohingya.

🇰🇭 Cambodia’s year on top

This leads us to: Cambodia’s year at the helm of Asean. The bloc struggled last year responding to the Myanmar coup, hamstrung by its own rules and the broad range of governance types in member states. Brunei, the host for 2021, struggled to make any meaningful difference in the crisis, criticised strongly for failing to cut through with the junta and its own terrible human rights record. 

Enter Cambodia. Prime Minister Hun Sen is one of the messier leaders in the region and he’s come out of the gate strong, with human rights leaders around Southeast Asia spending the first week of this year begging him off his ‘cowboy diplomacy’. 

 

Hun Sen will himself visit Myanmar this year, he says, after meeting with junta representatives last month. Critics and watchers worry that he may attempt to bring the Tatmadaw back into Asean, backpedalling on last year’s snubbing and granting a legitimacy the junta desperately wants. In the Hun Sen style we’re all familiar with, he’s not interested in hearing the criticism. “Please do not bother me. Give me a chance to solve the issue,” he said this week as reported by Al Jazeera. 

Indonesian President Joko Widodo drew a firm line in the sand for the Cambodian boss following a phone call between the two on Wednesday:

I’m very curious to see what happens here. I do believe Hun Sen, as he thinks about succession and the next stage, wants to leave a strong legacy and ‘solving’ Myanmar would be a fantastic one. I do also think he tends to get annoyed quickly when his ideas aren’t responded to the way he would like, as seen by the above AJ quote!, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his motivation fizzle out. He’s been around for a long time and he’s a much older fella than the last time he chaired the bloc, has he still got it in him?  

AND, in addition to all of this, there’s the Cambodia-China relationship. Cambodia is widely understood to be the delegation behind the scuttling of any meaningful Asean statement on the South China Sea in recent years. How that relationship will develop over the year is certainly something to watch closely.  

All of this is going to make Darathey Din’s Campuccino an even more vital newsletter to have in your inbox. Make it your New Year’s resolution and sign up right now!

Phnom Penh’s willingness to block ASEAN policymaking has alienated Cambodia from some of its most influential regional counterparts and Cambodia’s growing reliance on China risks isolating it further from Southeast Asian states like the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Some officials in the region have suggested that ASEAN cannot continue to function if its rules continue to provide Cambodia with veto authority.

Concerned over Sen’s repression, the European Union let its ‘Everything but Arms’ agreement with Cambodia expire last year. EU tariffs have increased on Cambodian products precisely when Phnom Penh cannot afford it. The US–Cambodia relationship has also suffered due to Cambodia’s poor human rights record and engagement with China.

Beijing now is Phnom Penh’s last resort, giving Sen credibility on the international stage and much needed defence assistance. In return, Cambodia is China’s leverage point inside ASEAN and allows it to press its political and military claims in Southeast Asia.

Having ruled Cambodia for nearly four decades, thanks to past Asean endeavours that helped to create a unique political environment for the country. Hun Sen has already designated his son, Hun Manet, as his political successor. Under his leadership, human rights records have long been criticised by the Western aid donors. Nevertheless, despite many harsh words, none have severed ties with Cambodia, knowing full well its geostrategic value.

Now that the Cambodian People's Party has endorsed Hun Manet as his successor, he can move on to the next level of engagement to put a regional stamp on his long-standing leadership. If Asean leaders support his approach and proposed plans, Hun Sen's chair would be considered a success.

Then, he will leave the chair to the group's most powerful member, Indonesia, to wrap up the loose ends, especially preparations for the democratic transition in Myanmar. Judging from the trajectory of predictable circumstances, Cambodia would prefer the role of saviour to end the quagmire in Myanmar. We will find out sooner rather than later whether the region's, if not the world's, most versatile leader will be able successful in his final act of political brinkmanship.

🇵🇭 The Philippines heads to the polls

The 2022 general election in the Philippines is a bit of a full-circle moment for this newsletter. Dari Mulut ke Mulut launched in the final days of the 2016 campaign and I was extraordinarily out of my depth so did not touch on it too much. 

A lot has changed since then. Current President Rodrigo Duterte has governed for six years with immense domestic popularity, even as his name features prominently alongside familiar names like Trump, Putin and Bolsanro in the ‘rising global authoritarianism’ string. The constitution bars Duterte from running for a second term, leaving a lot of tricky work ahead for a successor come May. 

Bongbong Marcos, son of the late dictator Ferdinand, has been consistently tipped to take out the race with a recent poll from Pulse Asia showing a 20 point lead on current VP and contender Leni Robredo. Filipinos working abroad, a sizable cohort!, have also overwhelmingly backed Marcos. 

In the lead up to the vote, I’ll be keeping an eye on the impact of COVID-19 on campaigning and the actual process of having millions vote. Largely, the region has done a phenomenal job of managing and mitigating the pandemic throughout various elections over the last two years. The Philippines will differ in that it is by far the largest vote since the pandemic began — with elections including regional and local — and this Omicron business is still a great unknown. Historically, votes in the Philippines have rarely been violence-free with murders (and massacres) frequently reported. That combination is very tense.

I’m also very interested in social media in the campaign. Facebook, which repeatedly ranks the Philippines as the world’s top user, was instrumental in the nationwide rise of the Duterte clan and has been singled out repeatedly for fostering divisive commentary and hate speech. Jenny Domino, from the Internet Freedom Initiative of the International Commission of Jurists, pointed out back in November that while Facebook and other social media had been in the crosshairs of regulators across the planet, lawmakers in the Philippines have been conspicuously quiet on the subject. But it’s not just Facebook, she warned: ‘Political misinformation thriving on TikTok and YouTube ahead of the 2022 elections shows that the problem persists across platforms.’

And the K-pop stans, of course.

Marielle Marcaida, an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines’ political science department, explained to me how a total political newbie can take steps to be more knowledgeable and informed about the 2022 candidates and the governance issues they should be judged on.

“I agree that more young people are getting involved in the upcoming elections because a lot of them have lost opportunities for proper education, employment, and livelihood, and even the loss of loved ones due to the pandemic,” said Marcaida.

As we have seen it evolving in the recent past, the winner, crowned like a king, gets to choose a party, not the other way around, as it should be. But it is often the case that the chosen party is either dormant or morally bankrupt and not one that will carry forward government programs.

"Rare is a party loyalist," said former Commission on Elections chair Andres Bautista. And from there, turncoats will spill over "to enjoy the political spoils and partake of the financial perks of the new administration."

What Rest of World will publish

I am a huge fan of tech reporting and ruminating that reveals more about our world. In this corner of the planet, there are a lot of brilliant writers and reporters reflecting on how tech — from social media to manufacturing — is changing economies and communities. I am officially a Rest of World stan and I can’t wait to see what they’ve got for us over the next year. 

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