The year ahead in Asean

Hello friends!

Slow start to the new year. I’m in Canberra for the summer so can I blame the nasty air quality and repeatedly having to tell my sister to chill out about a fire plan? 

Anyway! My New Year’s Resolution is to stop saying I’m going to do a South China Sea special and actually do it. I’ll tick it off nice and early by sending it Friday — Terima kasih Indonesia for forcing my hand on that one!

Another goal is to really level up on this project. March is four years (FOUR YEARS) since I started writing this from a Starbucks in a nondescript office building in South Jakarta and I can’t believe all the places it has taken me since. But I want to push it more. 

And to kickstart that, for the next week I’m offering 20 percent off for new annual subscribers using the subscribe button below:

Please forward/share and come visit the brand new Instagram over here. Each day, I’ll take a quick look at one of the region’s biggest stories so you can keep up to date without putting your phone down.

Also, I got started on publishing wicked quick, here’s me for the Diplomat on the year ahead in Thailand and Jakarta’s flooding and Governor Anies Baswedan’s problems. 

See you Wednesday!Erin Cook

Mekong mess

I think this is the year we collectively graduate from ‘Mekong: a future flashpoint?’ to ‘Mekong is a flashpoint.’ 

I haven’t stopped thinking about this report from the AP in early December which bluntly lays out what downstream Mekong communities can expect if it’s not already destroyed. These bloody dams in Laos, the latest being Xayaburi, and sustained droughts are going to leave the region dried out and dead. 

I don’t think I can accurately stress how freaked out I am by this. It seems to be past the point of no return, the Mekong River Commission isn’t invested in looking out for the people first and the short term gains for Laos via investment from China is too great to stop. AP reports that around 70 million people in the region rely on the river in one way or another. The social effects, if it were to completely die, would be mammoth, not to mention the economic and environmental impact.  

Given the historical conflicts between these states and the role of China via funding and its own damming across the border, as the situation becomes more desperate I do think we will see some upsets. What this looks like, that is whether full-blown conflict or mass migration to Thailand seeking work etc. remains to be seen. 

Back to the polls!

🇸🇬 I’m doing a lot of shouting lately. I’m very defensive of gags about ‘ooh, who will win!’ re: the Singaporean election. Are Singaporeans less ‘important’ to listen to because the gerrymandering and politicking have a more benevolent face? No, of course not! Pull your head in! While it’s true that the only thing we do know at this stage isn’t when it will be but rather who will win, the discussions and debates in the lead up will be very illuminating. 

Of course, it is important to again note that press freedom in Singapore has continued to slide and will presumably take a big hit in the Reporters Without Borders index again this year with the new fake news legislation. Still, doesn’t mean we don’t get any handy reporting or coverage. This one from Today lays out the key issues — inequality, cost of living, succession issues within PAP and the deeply Singaporean concern of beef between councils. 

I truly thought polls would be open by early December at the latest but sometime within the first quarter after Lunar New Year in late January seems to be the new bet. This analysis piece from Dewey Sim for the SCMP suggests it could be as late as September which I hope not because that is a loong time. 

🇲🇲 On the mainland, Myanmar is likely to return to the polls in November. I won’t get into it now since we’ve got nearly a full year of coverage and analysis to get through but I will note I’m interested in keeping an eye on conversations around social media, censorship and press freedoms. I’ll also be spending that time reading The Hidden History of Burma from Thant Myint-U. (He was just on the Asia Society podcast, which I haven’t listened to yet but will eventually.)

A few local elections in Indonesia will raise serious questions about what kind of legacy President Jokowi wants to leave, while Malaysia has been pumping out by-elections every couple of months since GE14 so why stop now. 

Malaysia’s leadership scraps

This May is supposed to be the golden two-year deadline in Malaysia. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is, as he promised prior to the shock 2018 win, meant to stand aside and let frenemy Anwar Ibrahim rise to the top. Last year was a fairly tumultuous (and scandalous!) year on this front, with Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali emerging as a challenger.

Anwar could face trouble. Polling at the end of last year from the Merdeka Centre shows he polls extremely well among Chinese and Indian Malaysians but falters with Malays. Meanwhile, Mahathir’s support among the Malay-majority has climbed after backing a few events last year that were seen by minorities as deeply divisive. Which raises interesting questions about the balance of power within the Pakatan Harapan coalition which I’m sure we’ll get to (repeatedly!) throughout the year. 

Still, Anwar met Mahathir last week in Putrajaya to chat all things domestic and foreign politics, which is presumably a signal that Anwar is still on track. But this changed seemingly every 15 minutes last year so I’m not placing any bets until it’s done. And just because I can never believe it: Mahathir will be 95 this July. 

Environmental catastrophes 

I don’t have much to say exactly here, just want to note that Jakarta was flooding while Thailand warned everyone to have fewer showers to conserve water and the Philippines was smashed to hell by a typhoon. Given where on the planet Asean sits, the region is no stranger to disaster. But it’s also the canary for climate change and that scares me a lot. 

Stirrings in Thailand

One of my goals this year is to get more across Thailand! Which means a lot of time in Bangkok — a dream! Seems like a fascinating time to do it too. 

Yesterday, Future Forward’s Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit hosted the Run Against Dictatorship, a fun run initially planned in just Bangkok before expanding across the country. We’ll get into this properly in the regular Dari Mulut ke Mulut but I do want to take a quick look here.

The two things I find interesting about this is Future Forward and Thanathorn specifically taking on the role of opposition frontman, stepping up alongside the (internally troubled) Thaksin-founded Pheu Thai Party and signalling a new generation of opposition not formally aligned to Thaksin or Yingluck. Secondly, it’s the first major mass demonstration since 2014. Last year’s war on Thanathorn showed the government was not taking any chances but recent comments from Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha show it’s really getting under his skin now.