The year ahead - but make it Mekong

Hello friends!

It’s been a bananas and totally draining year. Next year, though, that’s going to really be something. Today and tomorrow we’ll take a look at what’s ahead across Southeast Asia and especially what this newsletter will be keeping an eye on. Some of it is nice, some of it is very bad but all of it is fascinating. 

In the new year, I’ll be upping the subscription price to USD$70/year. For the last few months, I’ve been really copping it from other outlets we know and love increasing their prices which has left my income seriously reduced. 

But! Until the end of this year, I’m offering 50% off a new annual subscription — so that’s $30 for 2024 and locked in at $60 for the years ahead. If this newsletter project has brought value to your inbox, please consider supporting it.

If you can’t — or are already subscribed! — please think about forwarding to a friend or colleague who might be interested. Word of mouth (hey! That’s the name of the newsletter!) is the number one way for people to find this and it’s such a valuable show of support.

See you tomorrow for a look at the year ahead in the maritime states of Southeast Asia.

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Out of everywhere, Thailand is the one to watch. I am so, so nervous about the year ahead where Pheu Thai will have to keep its unruly coalition featuring members of the previous junta government (that ousted Pheu Thai before seizing power, oh Thailand!). In the aftermath of May’s elections, the very cool heads seemed unusually skittish about a potential eruption of violence amid the horsetrading and government formation. That didn’t come to fruition, thankfully, but the key questions behind those worries are not really all that resolved. 

And, of course, that could all be wrong! Maybe Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin manages to keep it all together while ushering in a raft of complicated economic policies (which in themselves are dividing the coalition). Or maybe he doesn’t, and the pressure builds on a government many don’t see as legitimate to begin with and there we go. 

And then there’s Thaksin Shinawatra. The wildly popular former prime minister returned to the country this year after years in self-exile to dodge charges. He’s since been living much nicer than you or I in the Police General Hospital and his eight-year sentence has been reduced to just one year. Which will have him out mid-year. Why’s he getting such special treatment, many are asking. And just what the heck is going to happen when he’s out? 

But in very good news, seems likely we’ll be seeing the region’s first marriage equality legislation. A bill tabled in the Thai parliament this week is widely supported and shouldn’t have too many issues getting through.  

Of course, Myanmar is still one to watch. But frankly, I know better than to make any sort of forecasting here. The Operation 1027 aftermath and the other similar movements it has inspired will continue but where that goes to, who can say? I hope the new year brings some more reporting on how this is impacting communities but I understand how difficult it is. Maybe a New Year’s resolution could be to subscribe to Myanmar Now?  

🇱🇦 In Asean, it’s all about Laos. The alphabetical order of Asean chairmanship always makes the Indonesia to Laos handover interesting — from not just the region’s largest, but one of the world’s!, to tiny Laos. Beyond the scale, the divergence in interests is fascinating. In the year ahead, Asean will take on the theme ‘Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience’ underscoring Laos’ most pressing domestic concerns. 

That resilience will be tested next year. After a long 2023 working towards repairing the economy, or at least putting a handbrake on outrageous inflation and a plummeting kip, the year ahead is unlikely to start optimistically. Call it ‘significant uncertainty,’ according to this World Bank report. There were a few key exceptions but 2023 was another year of struggling to find great resources and reporting coming from Laos and, while I think it’s very unlikely, let’s be delusional and hope we see an increase next year. 

🇰🇭 If I was Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, I’d be consulting any and every soothsayer in Phnom Penh this month. He’s had a big year taking over the top job from dad Hun Sen but has struggled to carve out his own space under his huge shadow. What this looks like in practice is, I fear, much of the same. A shrinking of civil society space, more attacks on environmental activists and communities and media freedoms. 

I expect scam compounds to be the continuing huge story out of Cambodia in the new year. This year was full of terrifying reporting and some very hard work from the region’s journalists that shed far more light on the practice. With China increasingly sick to death of the whole danged thing and applying more pressure, I’m very curious to see how the mess is tackled next year. 

🇻🇳 This year for Vietnam was all about making friends and making deals. US President Joe Biden came to town to formally elevate the relationship between the two countries and Chinese President Xi Jinping rounded out the year in Hanoi. I hate framing the region in the China-US tug-o-war garbage, but it’s unavoidable here! Vietnam doesn’t really seem to care all that much — not to mention the historical beef it has with both countries that underlies most interactions — and its eyes are firmly on becoming an investment powerhouse prize. A bit too business-y for this newsletter's tastes although the overarching story is fascinating and I’ll be following.  

But! There’s also the heavy swinging anti-corruption drive which has taken some enormous scalps in recent years. It’s hard to think there could be any left but goddamnit, if there is expect an axing come 2024.