The week ahead: no surprises expected in Singapore's Saturday poll

Hello friends!

It’s election day in Australia AND Singapore this Saturday! Which ordinarily would make any Australian obsessed with Southeast Asian politics rabid with anticipation, but neither appears like they’ll be a squeaker.

Still, much of this century has seen Singapore’s People’s Action Party in a state of high-anxiety over the prospect of one day, sometime, eventually, losing its majority. 2025 won’t be it.

I’ll have a nice chunky primer in your inbox later this week to keep track of all the great reporting. But in the meantime, here’s what else I’m watching.

Erin Cook

🇸🇬 Singaporeans ready to vote Saturday

It’s election season in Singapore as the city heads to the polls Saturday. It’s one of the world’s shortest campaign periods (jealous) with just nine-days of official campaigning. But the last year or so has been an unofficial campaign with Lawrence Wong stepping up as prime minister and Worker’s Party mess putting the opposition on the back foot. Or will it? 

Don’t expect any Malaysia 2018 style upsets but how this spills out will show us how we’re tracking for the years to come. 

I’ve got a bumper pre-election primer to come later in the week, but here’s the broad strokes: Wong and the (ever) ruling People’s Action Party are making campaign lemonade out of geopolitical upset lemons. The PAP has guided Singapore through many a rocky period before, let’s do it again is the message. “We are in a changed world with turbulence all around, so there is much at stake in this election. Your votes will determine your future and your children’s future,” Wong told voters earlier this month, as per the SCMP.

Yeah, sure, but it’s a new world — and a new Singapore. The Worker’s Party, led by the embattled Pritam Singh, is hyper-practical. No one is taking government off the PAP anytime soon, but a sizable opposition force is the best outcome for Singapore. And if the PAP can’t deal with that? That’s their problem: “But if the prime minister is saying ‘no, with 60 per cent of the vote, we need 90 per cent of the seats, and only then we can govern properly if not, you weaken the PAP’ – I think we have a very weak PAP already to begin with, if that is their position. So that can't be the case,” Singh said yesterday, as per CNA. 

(This post originally said referred to the Malaysian election occurring in 2017, of course it was 2018! Time marches on etc)

🇻🇳 Don’t mention the war, tariff or otherwise

It’s either the Fall of Saigon or Reunification Day, but either way April 30 this year is way more politicised than it has been in the recent past. The day, commemorating the effective end of the war between Vietnam and the US, has become an important one for the bilateral relationship, with many events held with a focus on reconciliation and forging on together. 

Enter Trump 2.0 and the tariff war. With Vietnam hit the second-hardest in the world, the mood had soured. Now, the New York Times reports, all RSVPs must be cancelled. Senior diplomats have been told to stay away from events while veterans who have headed over from the US won’t have the support of the Trump administration. 

“I really don’t understand it. As a person who has dedicated his life to reconciliation and marveled at how it’s grown over the last 20 years or so, this is really a missed opportunity,” John Terzano, a founder of the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation told the paper. He served in the Vietnam conflict and has attended many events over the decades. Too true, John. 

Meanwhile, official talks between Hanoi and DC are underway as the 90-day freeze on the bonkers tariffs continues to tick down. 

🇹🇭 Paetongtarn grips cracks in coalition

No cabinet reshuffle, but there is trouble in paradise. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has ruled out a cabinet reshuffle after rumours reached fever pitch that the Bhumjaithai Party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, would be booted from the coalition. And sure, some in Pheu Thai want to see their own Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira and Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan purged from the cabinet, but no! 

“Everything remains the same for now, but I listen to every opinion. I like working as a team and working in unity. If the push really comes to shove later, we can fix it then,” Paetongtarn said in a recent cabinet meeting, as reported by Bloomberg. Anutin skipped the meeting, telling local media: “It's just a rumour and useless to talk about.”

It’s about a lot of things, but this bloody casino bill isn’t helping. Boosted by Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra, casino legalisation is meant to save the economy but Bhumjaithai really does not like it. The senate, dominated by Bhumjaithai-aligned, has already flagged it’ll happily knock it down if and when it comes to the upper house.  

Which is to say: a showdown is coming. 

🇲🇲 Myanmar this week

Numbers from the United Nations given to Reuters show the junta has repeatedly violated its own ceasefire agreement following last month’s earthquake. From March 28 until April 24, the military was responsible for at least 207 attacks, data from the UN Human Rights Office found via reports to the agency. That includes 140 air strikes and 24 artillery barrages. Disturbingly, Reuters reports 172 attacks have taken place since the ceasefire agreement in the days after the quake — with 73 of them in the areas directly impacted by it. “It's business as usual,” James Rodehaver, Myanmar head for the United Nations Office on Human Rights, told the wire. (Reuters)

A junta delegation arrived in Moscow on Wednesday, representing Myanmar at a military parade for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, according to junta-aligned media spotted by DVB. Sources also told DVB the delegation will be seeking out the purchase of drones from Russia while there. DVB reports the delegation is led by Myo Sett Aung, who, according to these sources, bought at least 100 drones from Russia last month which have already been used across the country. (DVB)

John Moe The, a TikTok astrologer with, is in a world of trouble after telling his more than 300,000 followers that the country should anticipate another earthquake. He made those comments April 9 and predicted a “very strong” earthquake would hit “every city in Myanmar” in just 12 days time. His predicted date has come and gone, but authorities arrested John Moe The on April 22. “Action will be taken effectively against him according to the law. Likewise, we will also take action effectively against those who write or spread or share fake news,” the junta said in a statement after the arrest. One Yangon resident told the AFP many in her neighbourhood got out of town or otherwise laid low on the day. (AFP)

I spent Saturday night in front of the TV watching the funeral, lamenting I wasn’t in Manila. Here’s a lovely one from Rappler: ‘A public viewing of Pope Francis' funeral is held at the Immaculate Conception Cathedral of Cubao on Saturday, April 26.’

Not to be outdone, Dili gathered at Tasi Tolu, the site of Pope Francis’ Mass last September.

Reading list

At 99, a Seminal Asian Leader Reflects on a Contentious Legacy — Sui-Lee Wee, New York Times

Malaysia’s former prime minister and a giant in the region, Mahathir Mohamad, sat down with the NYT for an hour-long interview. In parts, it’s more of the same, doubling down on his offence, gross prejudices. What gets me here though is the perseverance of questioning on particular questions. This feels like a final word interview as he approaches a ton in July. Gift link, click through for some great snaps from Chang W. Lee. 

Among his greatest regrets, Mr. Mahathir said, was his decision in 2003 to retire at 78 because he felt he would be too old to contest the next election.

During that first pause, he was never able to stay on the sidelines. He criticized two of his protégés for what he said were economic mismanagement and personal failings. But it was a quest to defeat one of them, Najib Razak, then prime minister, that gave rise to Mr. Mahathir’s remarkable second act in politics.

US Aid Cuts and Travel Ban Will Impact Laos — Nick J Freeman, Fulcrum

The United States is retreating from Southeast Asia (and the whole planet, I guess). For Laos, finding aid donors to fill the gap is a herculean task. According to the Centre for Global Development, cuts will hit 72 percent of the US’s entire aid portfolio in the country. That means programs looking at energy security, development and addressing human trafficking are on the chopping block. 

Laos will be affected on other fronts as well. As a less developed country, Laos is heavily dependent on overseas development assistance. Within Southeast Asia, the country is the largest recipient of official development finance on a per capita basis. If this support is reduced, the impact on Laos and its poorer citizens will be felt across a number of areas. For example, the US has also been the single largest funder of unexploded ordnance (UXO) clearance in Laos (as well as Cambodia and Vietnam).  Since 1995, the US has invested over US$390 million in UXO work, spanning de-mining teams, public safety education, and financial support for victims and survivors. This is conducted through the State Department rather than USAID. But this, too, was suspended in January. It is currently unclear whether this funding will resume.

In This New World Disorder, You Need Vietnam's Bamboo Diplomacy — Andreas Kluth, Bloomberg

Jeeze, the Politburo would be stoked with this entry into Bloomberg’s opinion pages. In these wild days, is Vietnam’s easy-breezy bamboo diplomacy the way to go? Sure, why not. But, like many pieces grappling with Southeast Asia’s big boys looking to find friends in other places, it doesn’t love to confront that this also means being chill with Russia. Still, that this is being entertained at all, and I dare say it will become far more popular in the coming months, tells us everything.

Until recently, I would have counseled a grand strategy superior to either bamboo or epiphyte foreign-policy. While the Pax Americana lasted — that is, the international order in which America usually plumped for the system and its rules and against aggression — I would have urged countries to pick one camp and make sure it’s the American-led West. It has, broadly, been militarily strong, economically prosperous and politically free.