The Week Ahead: Leaders flock to Melbourne for Asean-Australia Summit

Hello friends!

I’m trying out something new here for our Monday newsletters. Today looks ahead for the week, touches on the latest Myanmar updates and coverage and ends with a few reads (and a killer song) that I’ve been loving.

The plan is to keep this free for all readers but if you’d like to support the newsletter or read a more in-depth look at the region please consider subscribing:

Like many Substacks you might read, I’m also in the process of moving over to Beehiiv. This is a great idea for me — they take less money from writers AND have some great options for design (and are less embarrassing). But, sadly, I’m far more interested in thinking about Anwar Ibrahim and the Spratly Islands than I am in working out how computers work so it may take a while. Just a heads up! 

And before we crack in — well done to all who have helped Timor-Leste fund its first-ever float in the Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras. “Natalino Guterres likens getting the chance to march down Oxford Street in pure queer pride to the feeling he had when he was 12 and Timor-Leste achieved independence after a brutal occupation,” the Guardian reported before the big night on Saturday.

Erin Cook

The Week Ahead

Asean-Australia Summit to meet in Melbourne (4-6 March)

Today is day one of the first Asean-Australia Summit since 2018, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese playing host in Melbourne to Asean and Timorese leaders. The occasion marks 50 years of ties between the bloc and Canberra, but what’s really interesting to me is what Susannah Patton led with in her pre-show primer for the Interpreter. This is a lot of new faces. Australia’s on to its third PM since the last go (for once, in a reasonable way!) but it’s only Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong — the latter two on their way out the door — who have appeared at the summit before. 

Everyone else, including Philippine President Bongbong Marcos whose address at Parliament in Canberra last week included a Senator-led protest against human rights back home, is brand new to the Asean-Australia circuit. I’d personally expect a lot of happy faces, maybe some promises on trade and investment, but little in the way of substantial movement on Myanmar, the South China Sea or the other big-ticket agenda items that will wait for a Vientiane meet. 

Singapore is prepared for more. “The leaders will exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual concern, and on how to continue working with Australia in building an open, inclusive and stable region,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement yesterday, as per Straits Times. 

Australia is home to enormous diaspora groups from across Southeast Asia and that often makes for a vibrant summit. The Cambodian diaspora in Melbourne is particularly vocal and has, over the years, resulted in concerns of interference from Phnom Penh. That better not happen this time, warns Julian Hill, a Labor MP who has long championed democratic reforms for Cambodia. 

“To those who dare to try and come and interfere in our communities, our police and intelligence agencies know what you're up to. The Australian government will take strong targeted action against those involved," he said Saturday while addressing a pre-summit demonstration featuring the Cambodian, Vietnamese, Lao and Myanmar communities. 

The group has a mixed bag of demands — the presence of the South Vietnam flag sure to annoy some back in a certain office in O’Malley — but the focus is largely on getting rid of political repression back home and getting Myanmar on the agenda, the ABC reports. 

I’ll also be closely watching Timor-Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, who is attending as a formal observer of Asean. Australia’s had its own extremely bumpy relationship with Dili but is determined to support seeing Timor-Leste eventually become a full member — the dynamics of which may have shifted after last month’s election in Indonesia. 

What else? It’s Taylor time

Taylor Swift kicked off her Singapore shows over the weekend, but I somehow think we’ll be hearing more about this for a while yet. Jon Emont over at the Wall Street Journal dug into the economics of the tour — the short answer is, it’s a boon but he assures me it’s more fascinating than just cash. 

Costs are high for Singapore, but even more so for fans from across Southeast Asia. ABC Australia spoke with one Indonesian Swifty, Ernas Tiara, who is shelling out big. A tight budget is worth it but her friends all went in on a package deal for what they see as an opportunity that can’t be missed: “I can't describe the feeling of seeing her in person. I just can't wait,” pal Annisa Pratiwi said. 

They’ll have a chance someday to catch her in Indonesia again if Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno has his way, the Jakarta Globe reports. He’s courting the pop star to come back for the first time in a decade. I spotted on his Instagram that he caught one of her Australian shows so he must be impressed. 

The Philippines isn’t happy either, but I do wonder how much of an impact having a president catch a helicopter to Coldplay to skip Manila’s hellish traffic has had on the pop star bookers of the world. 

The massive win for Singapore has prompted a crisis of faith of sorts up in Bangkok. The city was once a must-do for artists of another generation — I feel like I’m dangerously close to implying Swift is the Bowie of the 21st Century — but it didn’t get a look in for the Eras Tour. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin kicked off the outrage after revealing Singapore’s deal with the singer, but sour grapes aren’t going to get her there. 

“Let’s talk about a wake-up call, a rallying cry for us Thais to channel this disappointment into something monumental,” Wanchai Vatanakool writes for the Thai Enquirer. Why not promote locally-made pop culture more? There are half a dozen Thai bands I’d prefer to see over Swift, so I think they’re on to something. The Pheu Thai-led obsession with building soft power is precisely the kind of thinking that could eventually see a Hallyu Thai-style takeoff — if only the government could get out of the way of young creative Thais. 

Game of portfolios underway in Indonesia

The inauguration of Prabowo Subianto (with all the caveats about final counts pending, of course) isn’t until October, but the jockeying for cabinet positions will begin heating up after a couple of weeks of the thanksgiving tour. President Joko Widodo loomed large over the Prabowo-Gibran Rakabuming Raka campaign, and that positioning will continue as names are bandied about. 

“Jokowi will certainly be asked for his advice and input [in the formation of a cabinet]. That's why his role will be significant,” Drajad Wibowo, a senior member of Prabowo’s campaign team, said last week, as reported by the Jakarta Post. Intriguingly, the paper reports that Jokowi asked his successor for four cabinet positions to name himself. 

Still, cracks are appearing. Several parties within the coalition that backed Prabowo-Gibran are reportedly concerned about just how much say Jokowi will have. And with rumours continuing to swirl that Jokowi will not go gently into that good Solo night after his term ends and instead ditch PDI-P for another party, increasingly seemingly Golkar, the likelihood of some type of confrontation is ever-present.

Indikator Politik Indonesia pollster Kennedy Muslim has a view that is, I think, widely shared: “There is no guarantee that the relationship between the two will continue to be harmonious. Prabowo is not the kind of President who likes to be told what to do.” 

Quiboloy can run, but can he hide?

Where, oh where, is Filipino megachurch preacher Apollo Quiboloy? The second coming of Christ or suspected human trafficker, depending on whether you ask him or the FBI, has gone ‘missing’ after Congress issued subpoenas compelling him to appear before a hearing. Quiboloy’s legal counsel Ferdinand Topacio told the Inquirer last week that his client is still tossing up his options. He faces arrest if he fails to comply.

In the meantime, Quiboloy’s whereabouts are unknown but he says he is “hidden, not far from here. My fort is made of rock.” He’s also noted that he has “thousands of red and black ants, ready to defend me against the conquerors, whether Americans or my countrymen.” He’s offered up a P1,000 reward to anyone who can solve his ‘riddle’ and locate him, the Philippine Star reported over the weekend. 

Thai parliament set to clear the smoke

Thailand’s cannabis laws are set for a massive overhaul with a bill set for deliberation at some stage this month, Health Minister Cholnan Srikaew told Reuters. “Without the law to regulate cannabis it will be misused,” Cholnan told the wire, adding that reforms should be law by the end of the year.

There are around 20,000 cannabis shops operating at the moment that will have to pivot in line with the law that will stamp out recreational usage and reserve cannabis for only medicinal use. Expect to see a surge in doctors wielding permission slips for a couple of hundred baht in Thailand’s tourism hotspots, I’d say. 

🇲🇲 A Myanmar update

• Clashes between the military at the Arakan Army in Rakhine State escalated last week with the military shelling of a market in the state capital Sittwe, the Irrawaddy reports. The AA has long promised to regain control of the state from the junta. A local resident told the Irrawaddy that the military has stepped up incursions in the city amid anticipation of an all-out offensive from the AA. 

• Thailand’s parliament isn’t too interested in the protest of the Myanmar junta after it opened a seminar on the weekend discussing the political situation, Reuters reported Saturday. Move Forward MP Rangsiman Rome, head of the committee that organised the event, sees the seminar as an opportunity to get a move on: “What we are doing today is the first step in bringing a variety of stakeholders to talk to each other. It will pave the way for a political solution for Myanmar that is peaceful and sustainable.” 

• Brilliant report on the conscription fall-out here from the Guardian. The ‘wave of terror’ that blanketed Myanmar after the announcement last month continues to ripple. One man from Shan State told the Guardian his wife encouraged him to leave the country, effectively abandoning her and their eight-year-old child. “If I joined the military, I would have to fight my own people. I do not want to do that. The military is infamous — they are killing people, arresting people, doing so many unjust things.” UN special rapporteur for Myanmar Tom Andrews noted that the volume of people fleeing across the border “will surely skyrocket.” 

Reads you better not miss

Love, scam and assassinations: A story of a Twitter swindler (Malaysiakini)

This from Malaysiakini’s wildly talented Newslab puts a name — or a pseudonym, at least — to a story that is very familiar. Love scams are a scourge across Southeast Asia, but seem particularly sophisticated in Malaysia and Singapore. But this one from a woman identified only as Sarah is extraordinary. Her family is involved, and so are the Pahang palace and assassinations. This is a feature with Netflix written all over it.

“​​I was assigned an investigating officer in KL, but it would be several days before she contacted me. When we finally spoke, she seemed unconvinced I was scammed. “But you willingly gave him the money right?” she asked.”  

The History and Evolution of the Islamic State in Southeast Asia (Hudson)

Thankfully, it’s been a while since we’ve had much need to talk about the organised terror networks of Southeast Asia in these pages. This long report traces the history of these groups, their interconnectivity across the region even with deeply local motives, and flags potential future flashpoints. 

“Radical groups across Southeast Asia are likely to continue to exploit social, economic, and political disenfranchisement in their societies to appeal to new potential recruits. They will also likely continue to focus their rhetoric and actions on the “near enemy,” i.e., their local and national governments, while exploiting anger toward the actions of “far enemies” such as the West in order to recruit and spread their ideology.”

Time for tourists in Asia to stop behaving badly (Nikkei Asia)

It’s my dream to one day see Tak Bat, the famous early morning ceremony in Luang Prabang during which monks walk the streets as local Buddhists give alms. And tourists watch, quietly, from a distance. Or at least, that’s how I thought it was. Writing for Nikkei Asia, Charukesi Ramadurai was extremely unimpressed by the behaviour of other tourists, crowding monks for selfies. 

This sort of behaviour is an unfortunate side effect of tourism everywhere “But Southeast Asia seems like a favorite target. It would be easy to blame this on perplexing social and cultural beliefs, but I am inclined to believe there is a deeper reason that springs from not ignorance but arrogance.” 

🎧 🇰🇭 VannDa - Time To Rise feat. Master Kong Nay

I am simply incapable of not listening to this every few hours. Work break? VannDa and Master Kong Nay time. Rain delayed the Grab? VannDa and Master Kong Nay time. Put the CC on and enjoy this sublime rallying cry from Cambodia. (It’s a couple of years old, but I’m a Millennial and I see it is my fate to be late now)