The Week Ahead: court challenges in Indonesia, Myanmar's coming conscription tragedy and Timor fights off Teves

Hello friends!

A weird week ahead, I think. It feels like the start of some big stories — or at least new chapters of some of our endless stories!

The Philippines is in here a bit more than anywhere else (and I didn’t even include Apollo Quiboloy) but Manila seems to be having another one of those ‘month’s worth of news in a week’ times. Elsewhere, election challenges in Indonesia begin, Thailand’s love for Move Forward and Pita is on the record and bracing for terror in Myanmar with the conscription.

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Thanks, Erin Cook

Courts the next battleground in Indonesian election

Ganjar Pranowo and the PDI-P want Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka disqualified. Lawyer Todung Mulya Lubis filed a challenge to the Constitutional Court on Saturday on behalf of Ganjar and his running mate, Mahfud MD. “We demand the Constitutional Court to order the General Election Commission to administer a revote,” he told media, as reported by the AP. The ticket ran a flat third, securing just over 16% of the vote.

Here’s what I reckon: Ganjar didn’t just lose, he LOST. He lost so badly I can’t think of an appropriate phrase that could convey how badly he lost while protecting the sensibilities of non-Australian readers. But he’s also not wrong. The dodgy stuff shouldn’t go unexamined. Still, it is coming across to some as the sourest of grapes, even his own Instagram comments are telling him to let it go. If this isn’t about keeping PDI-P on top and personal motivations (which I’m still not entirely sure about) it would seem more sensible to have all challengers — Ganjar, plus other candidate Anies Baswedan as well as the civil society pushes — come together. That’s myopic and I should know better, but still. Plus, unleash Mahfud MD. Let that former constitutional court judge with a hell of a mouth free, he’ll fix it somehow! 

I wouldn’t expect this to get hairy on the streets of Jakarta. These supporters are certainly passionate but not (largely) the sort to be burning tyres. I’d instead be keeping an eye on small but consistent protests at the House which are less tied to a candidate ticket and more existentially terrified about the state of democracy. If that movement were to grow — a very big if — things could get very interesting, but for now it’s all lawyers and statements. 

I also think everyone’s exhausted. That was a dang long campaign and it’s almost gubernatorial time! 

Conscription summonses reported across Myanmar

Further reports are emerging showing clear signs that the military junta’s disastrous plan of forced conscription is imminent. Summons letters have been sent to eligible Myanmar nationals across the country, Channel News Asia reports. 

One recipient, a 31-year-old identified only as Kyaw, was stunned. “The moment I learnt that my name was on the list, I knew I had to migrate. If I get enlisted, I will be doomed. Everybody knows what would happen if you are conscripted. We are given the following choices: ‘Self-sacrifice or flee’. I would rather be a beggar in a foreign land,” he told the outlet.

Will cover this more later in the week. Especially looking forward to reading more analysis about what this means for the state of the military. But! Keep watch, because it seems like this week is when it really begins to come to a head. 

Zip it, Beijing tells Manila

We are certainly in the midst of one of those messes where the South China Sea looms very large over this newsletter. After US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Manila last week, the sabre rattling out of Beijing continues, Reuters reports. 

“We warn the Philippines to stop making any remarks that may lead to the intensification of conflicts and escalation of the situation, and stop all infringing and provocative actions,” the Chinese Defence Ministry warned in a statement yesterday. It follows the Chinese Coast Guard run-ins with the Filipinos near Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratly Islands on Saturday. Officials in Manila say this included a water canon opening onto a civilian vessel. 

I hope this is just another in our ever-growing list of statements but the frequency is concerning. Stay tuned! 

Get Teves outta here

That’s the message from Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta to authorities in the Philippines after Arnolfo Teves Jr. was arrested in Dili last week, the Inquirer reported yesterday. Teves Jr. is a former high-ranking lawmaker turned suspected mastermind of a massacre last year that killed 10, including a political rival. 

The fight to get Teves in a prison cell is one we followed closely until it went a little quiet last year. This is the second time Teves popped up in Dili. An appearance last year in the capital was very unexpected by both myself and, seemingly, the Timorese government who wanted no part of this grim story, refused Teves asylum and turfed him. A bonkers choice of country in which to try the ‘I’m being persecuted’ claim.

National Bureau of Investigation officers headed to Dili immediately after Teves was arrested on Thursday in response to an Interpol red notice. In a beautifully delicate statement from NBI, the agency reveals just how keen Ramos-Horta is to not be a part of this at all: “President Horta communicated his earnest desire for the immediate resolution of the case and emphasised the importance of expeditiously removing Teves from Timor-Leste.”

NIB and Dili alike want some quick movement, but Teves’ legal team say it needs to work its way through the Timor courts first. A hearing on Saturday extended his detention another 15 days. 

Pita down, but certainly not out with voters

Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward Party is at imminent risk of forced dissolution by the Constitutional Court, but that hasn’t made Thai voters love him any less. He booked an impressive 42.75% of support in a NIDA poll released over the weekend — a score that has only climbed, from 39.40%, since the trouble all began. 

Poor old Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin booked 17.75% of the vote, down from an already kinda sad 22.35% in the December numbers. Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra might be better off focusing on her soft power plans than any designs on the leadership — she’s just squeaked by on 6%. I understand why, but I’m bummed Thaksin wasn’t polled for.m 

Polling like this isn’t the typical sort of reports I’d like in this Week Ahead email but it is very handy to establish a baseline as we head into what will certainly be a period of argy-bargy in the months ahead. 

Now what to do if you’re the Constitutional Court dinging Move Forward but they’re the only lot with an actual support base? 

Reads you better not miss

Why are Singapore’s younger workers so unhappy? (Straits Times)

Last week, a happiness index reported Singapore to be the happiest in the region. It did feel a bit weird to me, to be honest, but my friends do tend to be haters and misanthropes so my sample pool is probably self-selecting. And then the Straits Times dropped this fascinating report that sheds a bit more nuance. Millennials and Gen Z Singaporeans are having a very rough go of it and mental health costs are ever-growing. So where to next? 

Can Europe Save Forests Without Killing Jobs in Malaysia? (NYT)

I will say, this got pushed on social media in the worst possible way and the headline sucks. No matter how one feels about the European Union's ban on palm oil, any sort of ‘Europe saves global south country x’ is going to go down like a centrist party in one of their elections. Badly.  It’s a bummer because the piece itself is a fascinating insight (with great snaps!) about how the regulatory changes are affecting palm farmers in Malaysia.  

Is Indonesia Running in Circle? (Omong-Omong)

Every time I read an Omong-Omong editorial I think, hooley dooley you can’t get much more heavy-hitting than this. And then! The editorial team turns their brains and wit to the constitutional court challenges playing out in Indonesia and it’s a great complement to the piece above. “Nobody should mock or ridicule these losing candidates for resorting to the path guaranteed by the Constitution,” the board writes. “Nobody should have the right to brand them denialist just because they have reasons and facts to believe that the election has been rigged and they have been robbed.”

👀🇻🇳 Understanding Vietnam, thanks to Al Jazeera

Still a little confused about what just happened in Vietnam? Me too. Here’s Al Jazeera with a longer video digging into what happened, why and what it means for the broader political situation in Vietnam.