The region reacts to a second Trump presidency

Hello friends!

Earlier in the week I had planned to do a pre-US election special about how the region is thinking and engaging with it all. But when it came time to do it, I thought ‘am I really that bothered?’ No! A pre is boring, a post is juicy. 

Erin Cook

🇮🇩 Prabowo (maybe) to meet Trump

Indonesia is one of the few countries in the US’ population weight class that it isn’t beefing with one way or another. So it’s worth a deeper look here at what it all means. But I shan’t bother just yet, because brand new President Prabowo Subianto will maybe, possibly, probably meet with Trump in the coming weeks as part of his world tour stop in DC. 

“Indonesia and the United States are strategic partners who share a robust and multifaceted relationship. Our strategic partnership holds immense potential for mutual benefit, and I look forward to collaborating closely with you and your administration to further enhance this partnership and for global peace and stability,” Prabowo said in a statement published to social media, as reported by the AFP here. 

I never really pieced this together until the AFP explicitly laid it out, but it was the Trump administration that lifted a long-enduring travel ban on the president over human rights abuses allegations stemming back to 1998. It was lifted in 2020 after he was named defence minister in predecessor Jokowi’s cabinet, and I suspect whoever was in would have had to do that. Still, as friend of the letter Kevin O’Rourke reminded me during recording our Reformasi podcast this week, Indonesian politicos do have a habit of showing up at odd moments in the Trump story. 

🇹🇭 Is a baby pygmy hippo to blame

Roast Moo Deng. That’s the message clogging up the internet after the beloved tiny hippo baby ‘predicted’ a Trump win earlier this week after eating fruits spelling out his name. This animal has a stronger media strategy than most of the country’s politicians. 

Back in human-world, big business is smiling. Thailand benefitted well from the US-China trade wars and Bangkok is hoping to see a bit more business come its way. “Trump’s win will be beneficial for Thailand, because Republicans are pro-business and the US-China trade war will continue and result in more investments from both countries into Thailand. Everybody wants to invest in Thailand and use us as a manufacturing hub for exports to other countries,” Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan told Bloomberg News. 

🇸🇬 Lawrence Wong seems more excited than most

Singapore played a weird role in Trump’s first go. It hosted the second summit between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un all the way back in 2018. Come on back, says Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. After all, this year is the 20th anniversary of the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement — the only such agreement the US has in the region, Channel News Asia is sure to mention.

“Our bilateral trade has almost tripled since its inception, and together with Singapore’s investments into the US, this has supported over 270,000 high-quality jobs in America … During his first term, we made significant strides in strengthening our relationship, especially in areas like defence, the economy, and trade. I look forward to taking our partnership to even greater heights,” Wong said in a statement. Jeeze, steady on. 

🇲🇾 Not even a hint of a chest-beat from Anwar

Congratulations, says Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. In his statement posted to social media he flagged Palestine and Ukraine and urged the incoming president to do something about it all, Bernama reports. Honestly, I expected more from Anwar. He’s been talking a big BRICS game lately, getting a bit 60s with it all. Hello, is this thing on?? 

🇵🇭 A call for calm in the Philippines

Like Indonesia, the Philippines is deserving of more than a quick look in on the papers. The collaborations between the Bongbong Marcos administration and US President Biden’s administration have been very fruitful in the South China Sea and elsewhere, depending on your perspective. Don’t start freaking out, Filipino ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez  says: “It is in their interest that the Indo-Pacific region remains free, peaceful and stable, especially given the economic part of it, with trillions of dollars passing through the South China Sea.”

Marcos’ immediate statement was boilerplate: “President Trump has won, and the American people triumphed, and I congratulate them for their victory in an exercise which showed the world the strength of American values. We look forward to working with President Trump on a wide range of issues that will yield mutual benefits to two nations with deep ties, shared beliefs, common vision, and a long history of working together,” he said, as reported by the Inquirer.

I would like to put a special request in to someone to write about the parallels between the Kakampink campaign and that of the Harris-Walz campaign because I see it, I see the vision, but I cannot execute. 

🇻🇳 Non-market dreams dashed, probably

I think tricky days ahead for Hanoi. Vietnam had been vying for the US to ditch it from the non-market economy list, which would see it ditch anti-dumping tariffs. Nah, said the Biden government in August. A Trump government, assuming it loves a trade war like the last time around, would surely be not inclined to rock the boat and if anything I’d be taking a peek at my fat trade surplus with the US and wondering what’s next. 

“Ahead of the US elections Vietnamese officials said they would prefer to maintain the status quo in trade policy, which they would have expected under another Democratic president, rather than Trump's unpredictability, two senior officials said,” Reuters reports.

Over at Fulcrum, Nguyen Khac Giang saw it coming. This piece from July lays out what we could expect. But the bottom line for Vietnam and the whole region is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯