🇵🇭 The Philippines locks it down

More than half the country under Luzon lockdown

Hello friends,

This is all moving quickly and the current toll I’ve got here will likely change. But these are the bones of what I think is the most important parts of the Philippines’ response. 

I’ve also included a reading list of a few links but just FYI one is from me so don’t go thinking I’m scamming clicks by not being honest about that. 

I won’t be doing a Dari Mulut ke Mulut Indonesia special, instead sign up for Coconuts’ Indonesia Intelligencer where I’ll be taking a look tomorrow. There’s both a free and a premium membership so give it a crack!

While this week’s coronavirus coverage is free, if you’d like to continue supporting this project and funding my expansion in streaming platform memberships when I go into Australia’s lockdown do so here for $6 a month or $60 for the year:

Finally, I’m very keen to do a ‘what this is like for readers’ special for the weekend. Hit that reply and let me know where you are, what you’re doing, what the conversations from friends and family are like. I’m especially interested in hearing from Asean nationals at home or abroad. Looking at you, HKU students! What does it look like for students living away from their social safety nets? 

See you tomorrow and keep safe!Erin Cook

What that numbers say for now

As of Monday, the Philippines officially has 142 cases. The update includes the promising news of the first recovery within the country. A 46-year-old man under treatment at the Makati Medical Center has been released after twice testing negative for the virus.

What I do want to get into here is the high death toll. With demographic similarities across the region, I shudder to think we could see a similar thing in Indonesia as the crisis worsens here. So I think it’s important we understand what exactly is happening in the Philippines and why. 

A dozen people have died of the virus in the Philippines, which gives the country a mortality rate of 8.57 percent. Globally, we’re looking at around 3 to 4 percent and poor old Italy is around 7.3 percent. We already know that the virus will exacerbate inequality and poorer people are more likely to not just catch it, but also to die from coronavirus. This is not a Philippines (or Asia) specific piece, but this New York Times look into what role exactly socioeconomic class plays is vital. 

Shut it down

Last night the Philippine government announced the entire island of Luzon, home to more than half of the entire population, will be in lockdown until at least April 12. This is very tightly restricted and my understanding is even those who do not have ‘work from home’ arrangements with their employer in place will be forced to stay home. As Scottish Twitter has put it, guess the loungeroom is getting tarmac tomorrow. 

The Inquirer calls it a ‘sudden escalation’ and it does feel like this wasn’t really all that expected. Still, while it came amid just a couple of new cases being announced frantic movement following the Metro Manila shutdown has produced incredible photos showing how ripe the situation is for further spread. 

“Upon further study of worldwide trends and measures and the need for extreme caution during times such as these, I have come to the conclusion that stricter measures are necessary,” President Duterte said, as reported by the Inquirer. 

There is no conceivable way this won’t be a nightmare. Around 40 percent of the whole population work in the informal sector, meaning there is little access to savings or benefits from an employer. Some very, very hard choices will be made by households in the coming weeks. Still, a lockdown will be tightly enforced. Which brings us to two words that carry an extra weight here: martial law. 

History on the surface

President Duterte has been forced to defend his lockdown policies since the first Metro Manila announcement. 

“Let me be this clear, this is not martial law. Under the Constitution martial law is declared when there is invasion, rebellion or public safety requires it,” Duterte said in his live public address following the Luzon announcement, as reported by the Inquirer. “This not martial law, don’t be afraid. No one will be allowed to display guns except law enforcers and soldiers. Martial law is meant against the enemies of the state but in this case, we are fighting COVID-19.”

It’s not martial law, security analyst Jose Antonio Custodio agrees, but it’s not great either. “It's far from martial law. It's more like a massive humanitarian crisis response that leaves much to be desired due to poor planning and knee-jerk reactions,” he told Ana P Santos for Al Jazeera.

Still, the spectre looms large. I think this particular angle is something to watch closely as the weeks go on and frustration sets in. 

Market spooked

That reaction includes the shutting down of markets, making it the first country in the crisis to do so. The $188 billion Philippine stock exchange will likely reopen Thursday after shutting down today. The Philippines has had a shocker already this year, but with global markets roasting a post-reopen bump may not be on the cards. “What the market would do when trading resumes depends on the state of global markets. We will see a sharp selloff if the global weakness continues and a sharp rebound should there be a recovery worldwide,” Manny Cruz, strategist at Papa Securities, told Bloomberg.

Putting down the guns

President Duterte has called for a ceasefire between the New People's Army, the communist insurgency, and the military for the time being. Recent talks have collapsed but the President says for any chance of future talks, they better cut it out for now. The exiled Communist Party founder Jose Maria “Joma” Sison says it will be considered. “The offer will be seriously studied by the NDFP (National Democratic Front of the Philippines) and the Communist Party of the Philippines,” he said in a statement from the Netherlands, as reported by the Inquirer. 

Far from home

I haven’t read much on this just yet but I want to flag it now. We can’t talk about a thing in the Philippines without talking about the Overseas Filipino Worker cohort and it’s particularly important here. OFWs make the engine of industries across the planet, but especially in healthcare and other caring roles where Filipino women particularly represent in strong numbers. I think everyone needs to be hyper-aware of the fact that for many, many households under the Luzon lockdown their loved ones are abroad caring for others. I’m always staggered by the sacrifice, even motivated by necessity, and even more so now. What people! 

Reading list

Duterte’s decision came from, but did not abide entirely by, recommendations made earlier Thursday by an interagency task force. His decision to deploy police and military to enforce quarantine measures, which he insisted was “not martial law,” was criticized harshly by Filipinos worried that the increased presence of the authorities could lead to rights abuses in a country that has seen up to 27,000 people killed in the drug war and dozens of civilians killed in military operations ostensibly targeting communist insurgents. “Martial law” quickly began trending on Twitter after Duterte’s Thursday evening address.

The address focused heavily on community quarantine measures, which opposition senators said on Friday are still not clearly defined, and travel restrictions based on the recommendations of the World Health Organization, which participated in the task force as an observer. These efforts will hopefully slow the spread of the coronavirus to other islands of the Philippine archipelago and alleviate strains on the country’s health resources, said Emerito Faraon, an assistant professor of health policy and administration at the University of the Philippines Manila. “I think our government should have done it earlier, but because we follow protocols, we had to wait for tipping points,” he told Foreign Policy.

I’ve been crying since the night I learned about the cancellation of flights to Manila. I am frustrated that I have no control of the situation. No matter how badly I want to go home, I cannot risk being a possible carrier of the virus.

I'd made a promise to myself that starting this year, I would be as helpful a person as I could be to 3 people: my lola, my closest friend's dad, and my former tutee's grandfather. And this is the best thing that I can do for them at this moment.

The fact that the virus hasn't stopped spreading, and could especially kill the elderly or people who have weak immune systems, is an issue that needs to be taken seriously. What's worse is how it can affect our mental health, including those who won't even get infected by the virus. The virus can threaten our wellbeing, and test how we treat other people. It’s a normal reaction to panic, but it is not necessary to be selfish in this situation. 

Less kind words have been reserved for left wing critics. In an almost invert of domestic discourse everywhere, the hard right in the Philippines has consistently accused the left of “Sinophobia” in its demands to close borders. Conservative columnist for the Manila Times, Rigoberto D. Tiglao, laid out the argument in a column last week, dismissing critics as “rabidly anti-Duterte and anti-Marcos and racist.

And Tiglao has a point. Reports from across the world of heightened prejudice against the Chinese diaspora are a foolish and dispiriting response to the virus outbreak. Yet even so, the credibility of those lawmakers, journalists and conservative activists who otherwise offer fulsome support of Duterte’s other domestic policies – including the President’s well-known pattern of invective – seems stretched when it comes to racism.  

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