The only thing worse than Asean is no Asean

Hello friends!

I’ve been trying to take it easy for the last few weeks (and the paid subscriptions will stay on leave until June) but there’s never a good time to do that in the region! 

Just about everything that can be said about Asean and Myanmar has been said since the meeting in Jakarta at the end of April. The five-point statement demanded the release of political prisoners and an end to violence, which hasn’t happened yet. 

So here’s a short and sweet one here from me with a few thoughts and some reads that have helped me think about where to next for the crisis. 

See you soon,Erin Cook

Writing about Myanmar and Asean is cursed. No matter what your take is, it will be wrong. And not in that Twitter disagreeing way but in there’s no easy answer or even moderately difficult answer at all. 

I’ve read so many fantastic, thought-provoking pieces looking at the ‘consensus-based’ heart of Asean decision making, as well as the motivations and ambitions of the junta. I’ve read very convincing pieces arguing Asean destroyed any hopes of being the best venue by not inviting the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw or National Unity Government alongside the Tatmadaw. 

For me, personally, what I keep coming back to is a very short conversation I had with a Burmese man living in the US as part of a Zoom talk a couple of days before the meeting in Jakarta. 

He said he wasn’t feeling very optimistic about Asean’s ability to ‘solve’ the crisis, but Asean is the best — if only — venue to begin that conversation. 

I agree with him. That’s been my view since the endless 2017 of ‘is Asean still relevant?’ and specifically when it comes to the Myanmar coup. It’s a view a lot of my friends and colleagues privately share too, but hearing it come from this man, watching his country descend into chaos from the other side of the world, meant something more. 

That relevancy conversation is louder now. Much has been made of the Tatmadaw paying lip service before pledging to implement Asean’s demands — after securing ‘stability’ in the country. To which I say: it’s naive to have believed they would and I doubt there’s a foreign ministry south of Hanoi that’s surprised.  

Myanmar’s military was never going to abide by the bloc’s rebuke and nudging. It has found ways to justify the coup and the violent deaths of hundreds of young people. A stern talking to in Jakarta wasn’t going to flip a switch. 

The not-quite-a-summit is perhaps a disappointing event but an important first step in formalising further responses. Asean’s remit is specifically stability in the region and that appears to be becoming pressing as whole villages flee to the Thai-Myanmar border due to Tatmadaw violence — particularly in Karen State under aerial bombing attack. 

The Civil Disobedience Movement of Myanmar has the only answer to enduring peace in their country: the full dismantling of the Tatmadaw powers and the establishment of a military representative of the ethnic diversity of the country. It’ll make Asean finding consensus look like a kue walk. 

The statement contains a "five-point consensus" on Myanmar, including calls for an immediate halt to violence and for "constructive dialogue" to seek a peaceful solution — an unusual move by a bloc that traditionally avoids interfering in members' internal affairs.

Dr. Sasa, spokesman for Myanmar's National Unity Government, welcomed this "encouraging news" in a statement on social media, after having criticized ASEAN for inviting junta leader Min Aung Hlaing but not a representative from his anti-coup body.

Sasa reserved particular praise for Indonesian President Joko Widodo's call for the release of political prisoners. Jokowi, who was among those pushing for the summit in the first place, also urged an end to the violence and a return to democracy. The chairman's statement and Jokowi's comments seem to signal a subtle change taking place within ASEAN.

Next, ASEAN will also have to work within the realities on the ground, taking note of the hardship of the people, the degree of their persistence, and the fact that few people are likely to accept an immediate return to normalcy. Some among the protesters have experienced significant traumas that have hardened their position against the military, complicating efforts to reinstate the old status quo.

One can simply listen to field accounts of doctors, nurses, and other medical workers, who have left their posts for the sake of the protest, claiming “no return to work” without an end to junta rule, to understand the degree of resolve within the rank of the protesters. Finding a balanced and workable way of addressing the views of protesters will be another big task.

I didn’t have high expectations for Asean’s intervention. We have sent back the NUG’s statement on the summit to Asean. Asean must design accountability mechanisms to handle when the Asean Charter and decisions reached at meetings are not followed.

As a regional organization, Asean aims to establish a people-centered society for regional stability and sustainability. In principle, those aims are not much different from the aspirations of Myanmar’s people. The problem for Asean is that it can’t handle dictators who do not care about the wishes of the people.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations could suspend Myanmar, as some analysts like Elina Noor have suggested, because of the coup—the African Union has suspended countries like Mali after coups—but ASEAN is highly unlikely to take such a step, and is unwilling to abandon its principle of noninterference. If ASEAN does not suspend Myanmar, many leading democracies may decline to join meetings with ASEAN, like the East Asia Summit, where Myanmar junta representatives attend. The organization will seem powerless to affect events in its region, a further sign of ASEAN’s diminishment—even though, as others have noted, many countries outside Southeast Asia have looked to ASEAN to mediate in the crisis and help come up with solutions.

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