Hello friends!

A quick freebie today for the Asean developments over the weekend. There is still a lot to come here, particularly as the Summit is so soon. Expect some hot takes in the coming days. My view so far is: wow, I’m a little impressed.

See you soon,Erin Cook

And none for the General, bye

Don’t share the Zoom link, Asean members told each other Friday after moving to exclude the Burmese military government representatives from the Summit later this month. The emergency meeting between foreign ministers was shaping up to be a heady one for weeks with representatives from Indonesia and Malaysia particularly keen to exclude, or at the very least reprimand, the military junta for refusing wide access to the Asean envoy. 

While it’s not clear just yet who will represent the summit — to be held virtually as Chair Brunei continues to battle the pandemic (more on that below)  — the National Unity Government have asked for a spot. There’s much more to come here, I’m sure. But for now, here’s the immediate response from some in the region. 

🇲🇲 Whose Asean is it?

For its part, the junta fell back on familiar tropes blaming ‘foreign interference’ for the decision. "The foreign interventions can also be seen here. Before, we learned that some envoys from some countries met with US foreign affairs and received pressure from EU,” Junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told BBC Burmese via Reuters. Sometimes it feels all a bit Spidermen pointing meme when it comes to foreign interference accusations in the region. 

🇲🇾 Saifuddin sledging pays off

Do you kinda get the vibe that Saifuddin Abdullah wouldn’t say no to heading to Naypyitaw and sorting it himself? The Foreign Minister for Malaysia has been a fierce advocate for excluding the Tatmadaw if it refuses to move towards the peace plan ahead of the summit.

"If there is no real progress, then Malaysia's stand would remain that we do not want the general to be attending the summit. No compromise on that,” he told Channel News Asia on Friday. No compromise, indeed.

We might have more of a look at Malaysian foreign policy soon. With the domestic political drama dominating for so many years now — and isn’t the Minister himself evidence of that! — it’s definitely time for a revisit as Malaysia looks towards a United Nations Human Rights Council term from next year. 

🇮🇩 Kasihan you

This editorial from the Jakarta Post illuminates the Indonesian view — or at the very least, an Indonesian view. The ‘humiliation’ of President Jokowi following the July special summit in which General Min Aung Hlaing pledged to the five-point plan while in Jakarta, before immediately dropping it once the plane took off. It calls for Indonesia to take a strong leadership role in the bloc, with a clear distinction drawn between the founding members of Asean and the newer seats at the table (which surely is not a great move in the long run). 

🇹🇭 Tight-lipped Thailand

Thailand is, I think, one of the more interesting of the big boys of Asean on this. As has been repeated endlessly, the country run over and over by a military junta seizing power won’t be particularly interested in rapping any wrists from those who seek the same. But the Myanmar crisis is hitting close to home in another way with a humanitarian crisis bubbling along the borders since February. 

I think we might still be waiting for some English-language reporting from Thailand following the weekend’s announcements but comments made earlier from the Foreign Ministery indicate the hedging language will continue with a focus on the pandemic crisis above the political. 

"We ... believe in the collective wisdom of all Asean member states, including Myanmar, to overcome all challenges together in the spirit of the Asean family … We urge all parties in Myanmar to ensure safe and effective delivery of humanitarian assistance, especially those related to public health, to those in need," Ministry spokesman Tanee Sangrat said Saturday, as reported by the Bangkok Post.

🇵🇭 The true test for Asean

It’s an existential moment, Filipino Foreign Secretary Teddy Locsin told the Lowy Institute. "We can continue keeping [Myanmar] at a distance but … if we relent, in any way, our credibility as a real regional organisation disappears. What's that? We're a bunch of guys who always agree with each other on the worthless things, things that don't count in the world."

I’m guessing he was also stunned by the snaps of young people around the region burning the Asean flag and touting the people powered-milk tea alliance as the better option for unity. 

🇸🇬 Tough decision weighed by Singapore

Singapore hasn’t gotten into the argy-bargy like some in the neighbourhood, but it has also welcomed the move. "This was a difficult but necessary decision to uphold Asean's credibility given the unsatisfactory and highly limited progress in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus,” Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said in a public statement to social media on Sunday, as reported by the Straits Times.

📖 Other reads

Michael Vatikiotis thinks it underlines the core issues with Asean — an inability to effect meaningful change after being hamstrung by its consensus requirement and structural issues like the “failure to strengthen its secretariat and the role of the ASEAN secretary-general.” 

🇮🇩 History haunts Brit involvement in darkest days

This stunning report popped up quietly on Sunday evening and then exploded across the internet. And rightly so. The Guardian has gotten its hands on documents that show the extent of the British government’s involvement in the downfall of Indonesian President Sukarno and the massacres of 1965-1966. The propaganda war was waged by ‘specialists propagandists from Foreign Office’s information research department’ sent to work from Singapore. For the Brits, it was Konfrontasi that was the target — not the larger war against global communist movements.

A quick pandemic update from the region

🇱🇦 Laos is continuing its struggle against containing the Delta variant. Lockdown measures have been extended to the end of October at least, with hundreds of new cases identified a day. Laos has been on the receiving end of vaccine donations from larger countries across the region from Australia to neighbouring Cambodia. 

“In the spirit of our traditional solidarity and friendship … Cambodia would like to present to the government of Laos an additional package of 200,000 doses of vaccines to contribute to your country's endeavour to fight against this deadly disease,” Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said in a statement. 

🇧🇳 Brunei’s figures are all over the chart in what is surely a headache for the health experts of the Sultanate. According to the Scoop, Saturday’s 105 news cases was a 75 percent drop on the day before — which happened to be the highest ever daily count. The Scoop, which has been doing phenomenal reporting on this, reckons a huge portion of active case counts is linked to migrant dormitories with emerging clusters tied to workplaces. Of course, this brings up frightful memories of the Singaporean situation so here’s hoping we’re far along enough in the pandemic to avoid much of that awfulness. 

🇹🇱 In Timor-Leste, the situation appears to be largely under control. An additional seven new cases announced on Sunday were nearly fully offset by official recoveries and keeping the active case threshold below 100 (at 99!). Tatoli news agency reports just over 43 percent of the country is fully vaccinated, but the programme is being rolled out quickly with first doses pushing towards 70 percent.