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  • 🇹🇭 'Thais will prove that the ballot is stronger than the bullet'

🇹🇭 'Thais will prove that the ballot is stronger than the bullet'

On the horizon, coalition woes

Hello friends!

Briefly side-tracked by the news of an alleged serial killer in Ratchaburi province. Police allege a woman poisoned 13 people since 2020, of which 11 died. That’s two (alleged) serial killers I’ve mentioned in these pages in the last month — up from zero between 2016 and 2022.

Anywho, neither here nor there. A quick look at some key points and a big list of great reporting that has been published in the last fortnight or so. We’re in almost the home stretch now for the vote on May 14 — although, of course, it’ll take a while before a new government firms up — so I’m looking forward to more coverage in the coming weeks. 

And for readers interested in the Indonesia elections next year sign up for Ayolah, a free fortnightly (for now) look at the looooong road to the end. 

Erin Cook

Is the word you heard

  • ‘Populist’ is the campaign buzzword, with all major parties pushing policies aimed largely at welfare measures like increased payments. Dr Stithorn Thananithichot, director of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told Thai PBS that it’s unlikely to sway voters who firmly back their favourites. “Imagine what hard-core Pheu Thai supporters would do if the 10,000 baht scheme came from the United Thai Nation Party?” he said, referring to a surely mythical Shinawatra-backing voter jumping ship to Prayuth Chan-o-cha.  

From streets to the halls of parliament — they hope

  • Love this one from Reuters. Chonthicha “Lookkate” Jangrew, a 30-year-old Move Forward candidate, cut her teeth in Bangkok’s pro-democracy protests of recent years. She’s one of many candidates with direct involvement in the movement, hoping to build influence within parliament to enact reforms, especially on the deeply unpopular and heavy-handed lese majeste laws. “If you want to make a change in Thailand, you cannot rely solely on street movements or only on parliament. Both paths need to move forward together,” she told Reuters. “I’m sure the frustration is there and it will be shown in the balloting. For sure. Thais will prove that the ballot is stronger than the bullet, back like how President Abraham Lincoln said, 200 years ago, will happen in Thailand this year,” Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat told the Associated Press separately

Coalition building is going to get messy

  • Will opposition parties be forced to hold their noses and team up with military-aligned parties to win government? Who knows, that’s a long road that only really begins on the 14th. “It's very clear that the current opposition is the right answer for the challenges being faced by Thailand, not the military-backed party that staged the coup,” Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat told Reuters in an apparent subtle slapping down of that emerging theory. “If the lower house is packed as much as possible with (those following) democratic norms and rules, we will be able to take away the conflict of the politics of the appointed upper house versus the politics of the elected lower house,” he added. 

Reading list:

There would be social as well as economic benefits to the policy, said Ratchada. “Sex toys are useful because they could lead to a decrease in prostitution as well as divorce due to a mismatch of sexual libido, and sex-related crimes.”

While products were brought into the country illegally, she added, there was no quality control, resulting in some short-circuiting.

The Democrat party supports establishing a sex toy industry in Thailand and would legalise the items for people aged 18 years and over.

Pheu Thai, which leads in most pre-poll surveys, will not form an alliance with the military-backed conservative parties headed by former coup-leaders, said Srettha Thavisin, a high-profile former real estate mogul running as one of the party’s three prime ministerial candidates. The party is backed by ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra, an enduring yet polarizing figure in Thai politics whose term was marked by allegations of corruption.

A power struggle is intensifying ahead of the May 14 general election, in which more than 52 million Thai voters will elect 500 members of the House of Representatives. While Pheu Thai is targeting to win 310 seats — from 136 in 2019 — it will need the support of at least 376 lawmakers to tilt the scale in an electoral system that favors the establishment.

While populist policies in the Thaksin years were frowned upon by his adversaries, all of the parties contesting this election are taking a populist approach, brandishing a range of handouts and giveaways. This election shows that the ideology of the Thaksin side has become entrenched.

Thai society has been changing in the 21st century. Those who were left behind have gotten a chance to have their say, and they have been speaking up each time a poll has taken place. Yet Thailand's powers-that-be will not let change and adjustment take place, preferring the restoration and preservation of the old order that prevailed in the second half of the last century. This is why pro-Thaksin parties have won all elections since 2001, with Pheu Thai on track to extend this record.

Conversely, if the military, aligned with the king, thwart the popular will—via the courts, an outright coup, or other measures—it would be a disaster. It would further the region’s political regression, including in Myanmar, and, if past is prologue, likely spark violence in Bangkok. It would alienate young Thais, possibly causing many to emigrate. What’s more, a coup would strike a severe blow to the U.S.-Thailand relationship at a time of great regional instability, and it would likely push Bangkok even closer to Beijing, a relationship that strengthened after the 2014 coup. The United States would be forced by law to impose some sanctions on treaty ally Thailand, possibly sealing a situation in which China is not only Thailand’s dominant economic partner but also its top strategic partner.

Jatuporn Prompan, a longtime ally of Mr. Thaksin’s, now estranged, said the candidacy of his daughter is a reflection of “how Mr. Thaksin thinks, that he doesn’t trust anyone but his family.”

“She will face tremendous pressure from the opposition, be scrutinized and criticized,” Mr. Jatuporn said. “Mr. Thaksin shouldn’t do this to his children.”

It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn, a deputy chief executive of a family-run hotel management company, will ultimately get the top job. Pheu Thai, the party founded by her father, has named two other candidates for prime minister in addition to her: a real estate mogul and a former attorney general.

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