🇹🇭 Thailand's monster day in court

Hello friends!

A later than usual one from me today waiting for all this news out of Thailand. A lot of brilliant analysis to come, no doubt, but for now here is what we need to know.

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See ya!
Erin Cook

🏳️‍🌈 🇹🇭 But first, the good news

First, the amazing news! Marriage equality is coming! The Senate passed the final reading today after, as Reuters reports, a very long, long road from advocates. Well done! Thailand is the first in Southeast Asia and the third in Asia to approve marriage equality.

Saksith Saiyasombut over at Channel News Asia posted a nice little list of what steps happen next:

In a reply to a user asking how long this will all take, Saksith cites Constitution articles that mean it should all be done and dusted in just a few months.

Saksith and the rest of Bangkok’s fantastic journalists have had an extraordinarily busy day with all these court cases, so let’s do a quick whip around.

Thaksin Shinawatra. The former prime minister has been formally indicted in the lese-majeste case dating back to comments he made to foreign media in an interview back in 2016. He has been bailed, which is a bit whiffy if you ask me, given there are plenty of activists on this charge who have been repeatedly denied bail. Netiporn "Bung" Sanesangkhom died in March from complications related to a hunger strike to protest the refusal of the courts to grant her — and others — bail.   

But what do you do, I guess (beyond overhauling the system)? Thaksin remains remarkably popular among huge swaths of Thailand and jail might be more trouble than it’s worth to the political and judicial elite. Thaksin’s most enthusiastic supporter base, the red shirts, had planned a demonstration out the front of the court this morning Bangkok Post reports (via this story that has a certain slant to it!).

Srettha Thaivisin. Let’s wait and see what all the opinions say, the Court said today in the move from a group of Senators to unseat the Pheu Thai Prime Minister. ‘Involved people and organisations’ must submit their opinions on the case, in which 40 Senators argue that the appointment of former Thaksin lawyer Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister was unconstitutional, before a second hearing on July 10, ℅ Bangkok Post.

Move Forward. An ultimately dull day of procedurals for the Move Forward party — who, I feel the need to note at all times, a third of Thai voters backed — in its dissolution case. The Election Commission petitioned the Constitutional Court to forcibly dissolve the party and bar key members from participating in political life for a decade over allegations of violating lese-majeste with its policies of reforming Section 112, the Constitutional article concerning such things. Everybody involved has seven days to get their opinions in and the party will face the court July 3. 

The Senate. This one is really boring, comparatively, but still important! In a unanimous ruling, the Constitutional Court today declared the current senate elections totally valid and all chill. The challenge was brought on by six people, five of whom are candidates. We’ll get to these elections in the coming weeks, with the final vote happening June 26 and definitely, 100% not open to the public.

A nightmare day for my journalist pals, but a big mess for Thailand. International headlines from the last week, myself included!, suggest that this many high-profile cases — all of which, on their own, could change the shape of Thailand — point to a mess and a potential destabilisation. Why they were all scheduled for today remains a mystery. 

If I were a cynical sort, I’d suggest that something interesting has happened here where all cases had their big debut on a day in which Thailand was set to pass a landmark bill, and outside of usual Senate schedules. A cynic might have noticed that at one stage the leading headline (and on the main page, not in the World section!) on one global newswire was Thaksin and then a refresh brought the wonderful news about marriage equality. Of course, I’m not suggesting anything and have no grounds to do so. Though for a country hyper-conscious of its international image for tourism reasons, it’s a grand coincidence. 

I’ve spent the last 48 hours turning back to this piece from friend of the letter Patpicha Tanakasempipat for Bloomberg. “The uncertainty is rattling investors,” she wrote yesterday. Thailand is a juicy prospect for foreign investors and the apparent potential for political stability (*Thailand’s own standard) was very attractive. That’s changing quickly. The cases — and what will happen after any rulings — have spooked, as has the ever-rising dissatisfaction with PM Srettha. 

This is Thailand at peak political intrigue. The Thaksin case is widely believed to be linked to whatever agreement was made between the governing Pheu Thai party that he founded and the royalist elite to edge out Move Forward and allow for his return from self-exile. He pushed it too far and the elite are worried about what that could mean, so it goes. But the thing is: no one knows. Not the investors, not the journalists and certainly not the millions of ordinary Thais who had their democratic say last year. 

So, what happens now? The apocalypse wouldn’t come today, Veera Prateepchaikul rightly predicted yesterday in an op-ed for the Bangkok Post. He posited ‘worst case scenarios’ in all four cases: Thaksin would be indicted, the Senate elections would be invalidated, Srettha would be immediately removed and Move Forward would be dissolved. The naysayers were right on the Thaksin count and wrong on the Senate race. But what happens in the other two is still up for grabs. Lock in for a long July.