🇲🇾 So you want to be on top? The frenemies

Part 2 in a short series on Malaysia's election

November 16, 2022

Hello friends!

Today we’re looking at Anwar Ibrahim and Mahathir Mohamad — two giants whose on-again/off-again alliance and rivalry have defined Malaysian politics for decades.

A cracker headline from ST yesterday

There’s been a lot of heckling and finger-pointing about the relationship between the two and what they may negotiate when it becomes apparent next week that no coalition has the numbers to govern outright. Right now, that is a bit in the weeds for me. Immense respect and thanks to the country’s political commentators and reporters because holy hell it gets convoluted quickly. 

See you tomorrow when we’ll take a look at Muhyiddin Yassin and a few of the more interesting smaller parties and independent contestants.

Erin Cook

Anwar Ibrahim wants it all

Here comes Anwar Ibrahim. He hopes. Now 75, the opposition figure is hoping this is finally his year to win big. 

I have heard from many Malaysian friends and colleagues in recent weeks (most of a certain political persuasion, of course) that it’s time for him to move on. Malaysia has a young median age and I’ve heard repeatedly that a generational change is needed. This isn’t just the case for Anwar — as we’ll get into below with Mahathir Mohamad — but the appearance that he believes he is “owed” the leadership after his genuine suffering for so long is not resonating with many I’ve spoken to. 

“I'm optimistic,” he told Reuters on the sidelines of a campaign event in Perak earlier in the month. “We are here to emphasize governance and anti-corruption and rid this country of racism and religious bigotry.” A very good view. 

But some forms of bigotry are fine by him. His camp has demanded 5 million ringgit in damages from Perak PAS commissioner Razman Zakaria for saying Anwar was promoting an “LGBT agenda.” Absolutely a sore spot for Anwar, but, as Deborah Augustin warned, Malaysia’s LGBT community is already a punching bag and that has only worsened during the election period. 

What are his odds? He leads Pakatan Harapan, which is home to his PKR, DAP,  AMANAH and Sabah party UPKO. The DAP association has been pointed to by other leaders as a reason why Anwar will never hold power.

Why does Anwar want this so badly? He’s given up his home Port Dickson seat to run in Tambun, calling the state of Perak a battleground. Incumbent Ahmad Faizal Azumu won the seat handily in 2018 under the BERSATU party, now part of the Barisan Nasional coalition. “Although I know there are several big names in Perak, I am prepared to show that it is not impossible. Because we (PH) are confident with the people’s realisation and their fate,” Anwar said last month when announcing his candidacy. 

A widely-quoted Merdeka Centre survey conducted at the start of the month has Anwar’s PH at 26%, a sliver ahead of BN’s 24%. Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian also floated that the vital Malay-bloc vote could swing towards PH on voting day which would pip it well ahead of the incumbents. 

As you likely note, none of this is a clean sweep — at this stage, NO coalition is expected to hold an outright majority. 

Mahathir Mohamad is not going quietly

And then there’s the doctor. Mahathir Mohamad is so old that his Wikipedia page says he was born in British Malaya. I feel like I’ve written that several times on these pages but it’s always worth repeating, given how young the Malaysian electorate skews. Most international and regional coverage tends to lead with this and, though I try not to be a cliche, I still feel the urge to do it because it is remarkable! He’s got seven years on my granddad and all that bloke wants to do is sit at the club all day and watch football reruns. 

It is something he is aware of, telling Reuters last week that: "I don’t see myself being active in politics until I’m 100 years old. The most important thing is to transfer my experience to the younger leaders of the party."

A true elder statesman of Southeast Asia, Mahathir is hoping for success in what he has often referred to as his final electoral tilt. He will lead the Gerakan Tanah Air coalition — which was only formed this year and has not formally been registered — which includes his own Pejuang as well as National Indian Muslim Alliance Party (Iman), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Parti Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (Berjasa). 

None of these are heavy hitters and is a mix of brand-new parties and older ones that have fallen out of favour in recent elections. Still, his stump speeches appear aimed at damaging Barisan Nasional, and UMNO specifically, more than arguing for GTA to hold government.

Tellingly, the coalition contains no ethnic-Chinese-aligned party. Don’t worry about it, he’s said multiple times. First, purge Malaysia of the “greed” and “corruption” that has, no doubt, defined UMNO in recent years. And then GTA can be for everyone. “If we defeat these bad people, we will form a good government that will adhere to the rule of law and treat everyone, regardless of ethnicity, in accordance with the Federal Constitution,” he said. 

In all things, Bridget Welsh we trust. She told AFP that “Mahathir’s time has passed … He was given a second chance and bungled it. His chances this time to run as prime minister are extremely slim.”

Further reading:

In an effort to improve Harapan’s chances, Anwar has given up his stronghold in Port Dickson, south of Kuala Lumpur, to contest a seat beneath the limestone peaks of suburban Ipoh in north-western Perak state, a key election battleground.

It’s a risky move that could end his career but, given the fractured state of Malaysian politics, with backing for UNMO also not what it once was, a significant gain there may be vital.

“This is a genuinely unpredictable situation,” said Dr Amrita Malhi from Flinders and The Australian National universities. “There are more candidates than ever before, more independents, more voters, new dynamics inside and between the various competing parties and coalitions, and less coherence in terms of policy choices.”

So far, his campaigning formula of championing a multiracial Malaysia and promising to minimise corruption appears well-received by the communities in semi-urban Tambun, including in the eastern Perak constituency’s Malay-majority neighbourhoods.

“We have been under a government that is corrupt for so long. We pay taxes, and they misuse it. We support Anwar because he is clean,” Mr Roszalee Aliff, 57, said after attending a rally in Taman Perpaduan.

For some, Datuk Seri Anwar’s gravitas has already had its effect.

“It is like a nobleman is coming, the first time someone important is coming to Tambun,” Madam Tan Siew Chin, 75, said at her fruit and vegetable stall in Tambun Market.

Denounced for being an autocrat during his first 22-year rule until 2003, Mahathir was welcomed as a savior after leading the opposition to oust a long-ruling corruption-stained party in 2018. He became the world’s oldest leader at 92, and was to hand over power to his rival-turned-ally Anwar Ibrahim.

The euphoria was brief as their government fell in 22 months due to infighting. The United Malays National Organization — which had ruled since Malaysia’s independence from Britain in 1957 until its defeat — bounced back to power but the country has since been rocked by continuous political infighting. In all, Malaysia has had three prime ministers since 2018.

Mahathir, a master tactician, is no stranger to setbacks. He swiftly formed the Pejuang Malay party that now heads a motley bloc known as Gerakan Tanah Air, or Homeland Movement. But it seems an almost impossible mission as it’s fielding 116 mostly inexperienced non-political faces including activists, actors and lawyers, and lacks the machinery to reach out to voters.

"Perak is gaining so much attention because Anwar is contesting there, and he's the poster boy of [the Hope Pact] to become the next prime minister," a person in the ruling United Malays National Organization told Nikkei Asia, referring to Anwar Ibrahim, president of the People's Justice Party and head of the Hope Pact, a coalition of opposition parties.

Anwar, the coalition's prime ministerial candidate, moved from his safe seat in Port Dickson, a beachfront town south of the capital, Kuala Lumpur. He will be in a four-way contest in Perak's Tambun constituency for the first time, along with UMNO's candidate, Aminuddin Md Hanafiah, incumbent member of parliament Ahmad Faizal Azumu from Bersatu Party, part of the ruling coalition, and Abdul Rahim Tahir from Pejuang, a new political party founded by former Prime Minister Mohamad Mahathir.

Another star from the state of Perak is Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, president of UMNO, which leads the ruling National Front coalition. He is hoping to retain his seat in a constituency called Bagan Datuk in the same state.

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