🇲🇾Six states in Malaysia head to the polls

Hello friends!

Okay, so the Malaysia state elections. National politics in Malaysia tends to make my brain melt, so six states all at once is testing me. 

But! It is very interesting. Here’s what’s caught my attention in recent days. Depending on how things go I’ll be back with an update on Monday unless something super juicy happens and then expect me Friday.

And again: apologies for the haphazardness of this recently. I really do think I’m almost fully better now and I am planning a return to regular programming Monday.

Thanks so much,

Erin Cook  

It’s all a referendum on Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan national government. Which I vacillate between thinking is an outrageous disregard for state and local issues, but also a natural outcome of having six enormous elections on one day after some dramatic few months. 

The Pakatan Harapan coalition “has always been precarious,” writes Zachary Abuza for Benar earlier this month. Anwar doesn’t comfortably hold government and took power last year after a long period of bartering and coalition building (remember that!). “It was always going to be a fragile alliance, made up of parties who mistrust each other,” Abuza notes.

He’s right and this is our chance to see what Malaysians think about the whole deal. 

“The dust has barely settled from General Election 15,” says Francis Hutchinson of ISEAS in a piece this week for East Asia Forum. Still, the battle lines are clear - and that is part of the problem. 

Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan has not been absolved of the (possibly eventually fatal) sin of partnering with Barisan Nasional, home to UMNO, to get across the line in last year’s post-election horse trading. Perikatan Nasional is feeling much more confident. That coalition is home to Bersatu and PAS, the conservative Islamic party enjoying a surge in support from Muslim and ethnic Malay voters after the culture wars reignited in recent months. 

Hutchinson notes that the PH-UMNO agreement in Putrajaya is unlikely to translate into great electoral gains for either on the weekend. “Since UMNO and PH have long demonised each other, it is unclear how transferable support is between them. The unlikely combination of UMNO and PH could push former supporters of either coalition to vote for PN or stay home on polling day.” 

Virtually every state has had their own version of a ‘this election is about Anwar’ piece (or pieces, rather), but this one from the South China Morning Post focusing on Selangor is the most compelling. Each state has something a little special going on, but Selangor “has been the crown jewel of PH’s political achievements, having wrested control of the state from UMNO in 2008 when they were still adversaries.”

It’s also enormously important. The state, nestled alongside Kuala Lumpur, made up 25.5% of last year’s GDP, according to government data cited by SCMP.

“Selangor is the battleground for many reasons, especially the fact that it is truly a ‘mixed’ state … with Malays making up over 60 per cent [of the vote base],” Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, head of the political science department at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, told the SCMP. “So it is true that how the Malays vote in Selangor could truly cause a swing.” 

It’s in this state where watchers have their eyes peeled for the ‘Green Wave’ - proof of an ascendant PAS. Analyst Bridget Welsh said “there clearly has been a swing in Malay support towards PN (home to PAS) in GE15 and I would suggest that had continued since,” she notes. “The question is the scope of that [swing].”

It’s not just the Green Wave to worry. Think good old-fashioned gerrymandering, writes Lee Hwok-Aun for Fulcrum. He lays out the race succinctly: “With the prestigious prize of the country’s richest and most industrialised state at stake, the Selangor state elections are effectively head-to-head between PN and PH-UMNO. UMNO is desperate to stem its decline, PH is resolved to defend its turf, and PN is galvanised to take power by winning Malay-majority seats.” Well then. 

While race isn’t the only factor in Malaysia’s electoral politics, it’s a pretty big one. And with that thinking back before the 2018 election, the then-governing UMNO used its sway over the Election Commission to carve out Malay-dominated neighbourhoods leaving some constituencies with Malay voters making up more than 60%. 

“It was a scheme that sidestepped democracy,” says Lee Hwok-Aun, “and possibly contravened the constitutional principle that constituency boundaries should preserve ‘local ties.’” This means the odds are very much against PH and if voting patterns from GE15 hold this weekend, they’re gonna have a bad time - though it is not unwinnable! I can’t find any piece where an analyst is happy to put their hand up, it’s going to be a squeaker. 

Anyway, great read there for the psephologists among us. Maps!

Negeri Sembilan is looking a little more straightforward, according to Kevin Zhang also for Fulcrum. It’s been fairly safe for PH over the years and PN? Who’s that!

“Without even one assemblyperson in the recently dissolved Negeri Sembilan state assembly, PN lacks a credible narrative to serve as an effective state government given its very limited knowledge of the state’s development plans. In addition, PN lacks a well-oiled grassroots machinery in Negeri Sembilan since these networks and mechanisms are typically cultivated by state assemblypersons,” Kevin Zhang wrote this week. 

His breakdown of the seats in the state show a near impossible path for PN, but possible headaches for likely victor PH who, assuming UMNO manages to pick up most of the 17 seats its running in, may have to make some unseemly concessions. 

Anwar, for his part, isn’t too worried. Or at least doesn’t want to appear worried. Speaking from the hustings in George Town over the weekend, the Prime Minister said he has faith in Malaysians. “This state elections will spring a surprise as the people will save Malaysia from those out to cause division. They will also reject leaders who stole their money when they were in power but proclaim ‘Hidup Melayu’ when they are no more in power,” he said, as per NST. I love spicy Anwar. 

Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad isn’t quite in the same mood for unity. “If we don’t go out and vote, it is like voting for parties who are not worthy of winning and capable of governing,” he said addressing Malay voters at a PN rally in Kelantan last month. It’s important to note that these comments came just before he spent days on Twitter banging on about racial divides and said some genuinely puzzling (and revolting!) things about ethnic minorities. 

“We do not want to snatch away anyone’s rights. The other races can live in the country and can do business and become rich but not to the point that they say the country belongs to them,” he added, as per Channel News Asia.

What the elder statesman has to say might not matter too much. What matters will be PAS candidates on TikTok. Which feels like a bonkers thing to say but this from Malaysiakini and this from all the way back in July from SCMP are simply must reads.