🇸🇬 Amid global uncertainty and local rally excitement, Singapore votes

Hello friends!

I love a Singapore election. That city has an incredible case of convincing everyone it is fine and normal but a slightly closer look reveals it is absolutely bonkers at times. Not too much on the bonkers front here today, just a broad look at what to expect tomorrow as the city votes. 

Over at Reformasi, we’ve got a great chat with Kirsten Han — who is name dropped half a dozen times in this newsletter — and I cannot wait to share it. We don’t record video, but I kind of wish we did because at times Kevin O’Rourke and myself were visibly perplexed by how the system works. Have a read of this to get the bones, and tomorrow go deep with Kirsten! 

Happy voting to all Singaporean (and Australian!) friends tomorrow. If you’re out and about tomorrow and want to share your thoughts and views on polling day, I’d love to hear it — hit that reply.

Erin Cook

It’s the PAP’s to lose (which means win, but by less than in the 90s) 

The People’s Action Party, Singapore’s dominant forever party, will win tomorrow. There is absolutely no question about that. The system it designed and tweaked over decades makes sure of that. 

But it does seem unsettled. With Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in the hot seat for just under a year, he’s had plenty of time (and a bumper budget) to win over the city. He’s got one message: the PAP is the steady hand Singapore needs to get through the next few years. The US doing god knows what, dragging the region’s economy down has the country nervous but it’s certainly not the PAP’s first ever tricky moment. Uninspiring, sure, but it’s certainly working for supporters. 

‘Don’t risk it,’ is Wong’s take. Don’t take a punt on the opposition, who had a cracking election in 2011 and is not going anywhere ever again (except, possibly, into more PAP seats). 

For many, it’s coming across as quite paternalistic. Over at We The Citizens, Kirsten Han has a look at the shape of that message and finds it lacking. ‘Wong also keeps banging on about the need for a “strong” team and how more opposition legislators will lead to a “weakened” PAP government. What he hasn’t said is how much he needs for the PAP to be "strong". What does that mean? Give us the numbers,’ she writes. 

What to watch isn’t PAP going down. It’s where they fold and by how much. Juicy! 

Finally, I’m in love with these photos from Glin Gwee over at Rice Media. The PAP aesthetic really lends itself well to great snaps and Glin Gwee’s a real talent — excellent combo. She “approached the rally with a kind of dreamcore sensibility, looking for those slightly surreal fragments that are normally unnoticed.” Nailed it. 

Getting the Workers’ Party to work 

The Workers’ Party has contested elections for decades with various results, but has firmed up as a force in the last couple of elections. Pritam Singh, of the Aljunied GRC, is leading the charge after a tumultuous few years of legal troubles. 

As the most prominent of opposition parties, the WP clashes frequently with the PAP. Wong and Singh have gone back and forth on who is more into ‘negative politics.’ This is one of those things that at first seems uniquely Singaporean — the tone is elevated and must not devolve into squabbling or personal jibes, something we see plenty of elsewhere in the region and the world. But after a moment it really seems to be more about keeping opposition in a box. Pointing out PAP policy issues and disagreeing with it suddenly becomes ‘negative politics’ and whichever party is then accused of pulling Singapore into the cesspit. I see you! 

I think it might be emboldening Pritam Singh. He seems fired up. “A parliament with a more rational, respectable, and responsive WP will not hamper Singapore. We counter the groupthink of the PAP and suggest alternative ideas to better the lives of all Singaporeans,” Singh told a rally last week, as reported by Nikkei. 

Lawrence Wong and the long Lee shadow 

For the first time in two decades, Lee Hsien Loong won’t be leading the PAP to the polls. But he’s never far away. As a senior minister in Wong’s cabinet, he’s close and his star power, such as it is, is being put to use by the party. It’s not unexpected, for sure, but it does give credence to those who may already have hesitations about Wong’s viability. 

“I know he can deliver as a prime minister, but he is still new … The past leaders were strong, and they had long-term thinking. They looked far ahead. I feel he is lacking a bit,” retiree Milton Tan, a voter in Wong’s Marsiling–Yew Tee GRC area, told Nikkei Asia. 

Researchers have picked up on the anxiety. “Wong is trying to consolidate his position, but ... Lee ... continues to wield political heft. Generally, Lee provides a sense of continuity and stability,” Ja Ian Chong, an assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told the outlet. 

Lee’s presence is aimed at reassuring voters. We mean, don’t risk the untested opposition, not the untested Prime Minister! Lee never stepped fully back from the limelight after handing the reins over to the so-called 4Gen of the party. I know no one has cast a ballot yet, but I’m curious to see how this will look next election. Lee is in his early 70s now, but those are fit genes. Will his lingering presence eventually come to curse Wong?  

We’re not there yet. He’s more an attack dog, helping Wong keep his hands clean. “Lee seems to be providing cover — sniping a bit at the opposition, for instance — more than trying to upstage Wong. Should the transition prove rocky, even to the extent of Wong not securing a convincing mandate, Lee, too, looks bad,” Malaysian politics researcher Meredith Weiss told Nikkei. 

No home for foreign posts

A foreign interference incident threatened to take control of the whole race for a moment there, but has diffused quickly. Still, the response shows all sides of politics are anxious to keep foreign interference and racial/religious tensions out of the race. 

Social media posts appeared last week made by two Malaysian politicians (of the ultra conservative PAS) and an Australian man, who, crucially, was once a Singaporean citizen and an Internal Security Act detainee before giving up citizenship in 2020. The trio had made posts that accused the Singaporean government of not representing the interests of ethnically Malay and Muslim citizens and recommended voting for the opposition instead. 

(This gets tricky to wield and local coverage is walking a tight rope, Kirsten Han appears on Reformasi this week and gives us a brilliant rundown.) 

Singapore ordered Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, to block posts from foreigners for the time being. 

Across the board, the parties have rejected attempts to divide Singaporeans. “Foreigners have no place in trying to hijack worthy causes of Singaporeans who believe in Singapore, Singaporeans who are trying to work for a better Singapore,” SDP chairman Paul Tambyah told Channel News Asia. 

Too true, Workers’ Party says. “Singapore is our business — nobody else’s,” Pritam Singh told a rally over the weekend, as reported by Bloomberg.

“Mixing politics with religion is unacceptable in Singapore,” PM Wong said elsewhere, as per the Straits Times. “My call to all political parties is as I said: Let’s do our best not to push the boundaries,” he added, which kinda feels like a low-blow since none of the other parties had welcomed the commentary from the three posters. 

On the ground with Kirsten Han

I’ve long been a fan of Kirsten Han’s work (read her book, I’m telling you!) so I’ve been following her daily updates over at We The Citizens closely. Kirsten’s been checking out the various rallies around the city and all are a great read. Her day 5 trip to a SDP rally in Sembawang really shows why. 

Hot off the back of an incident in which Gigene Wong threw out a racial epithet aimed at co-runner Ariffin Sha, Kirsten’s view from the ground shows both an upstart party dealing with a bona fide controversy and how race and conversations about race influence would-be voters. Wong has apologised, and Ariffin did not let her get away with it but appears to be very gracious, but does that matter to non-ethnically Chinese voters?

‘The assembled crowd seemed generally supportive, but not everyone was convinced. As Wong stepped down from the podium, I saw an older Indian man leave, shaking his head and muttering, “What a racist party,”’ Kirsten writes. And then: ‘As Surayah Akbar, the first speaker of the night, moved to take her place before the podium, an uncle standing behind me calmly observed, “Not like PAP. [With them,] no apology.”’

Click through and give them all a read. They’re a fascinating look at the busy week through the view of someone who not only knows it so well — but is a great writer!

We’re very lucky to have Kirsten Han on the Reformasi podcast talking all about it this week. I will be sure to send a link when it goes live tomorrow.

Policies and promises: comparing GE 2025 party manifestos — Jom

Over at Jom Media, Abhishek Mehrotra and Sudhir Vadaketh take a look at the parties’ manifestos. Do they even matter, they ask. The PAP will stay on top, but the party ‘has long accused the opposition of lacking ideas, or proposing ones that ignore the realities of governing a tiny, resource-scarce nation whose prosperity is forever precarious. Manifestos help test that claim,’ they write. 

Cost-of-living is front and centre in the campaign and opposition parties are offering novel solutions. All three want to see immediate structural reforms, including a lowering of the recently introduced GST, exemptions for basic food and necessities and the introduction of a basic minimum wage. 

Housing also features prominently in all manifestos, but that stuff makes my eyes cross. So many acronyms. 

Interestingly, the Workers Party is the only party to look at foreign policy in its manifesto, Jom notes. It wants to see Singapore recognise Palestine as a state and crackdown on the connections between Singapore and the Myanmar junta. 

In Singapore’s Election, Success Is Less About Who Wins Than By How Much — Bloomberg 

Here’s one for the data nerds. Bloomberg breaks down voting patterns this century in a series of lovely graphics here. It shows why the PAP is freaking, why the opposition parties are feeling empowered and why Singapore might be on the edge of a new era. Just not yet.

“This will be a landmark general election for the PAP,” said Inderjit Singh, a former ruling party lawmaker. Falling below 60% would “be a signal that the PAP needs to do things differently.

Are Singapore’s election rallies a good gauge of voting results? — SCMP

A post did the rounds earlier in the week. It showed a smattering of people in a field, labelled ‘PAP rally.’ Below, a blanket of people crammed in and cheering. ‘WP rally.’ With no polling available rallies feel like they could fill the void and act as a guide. Don’t get too excited, warns SCMP. 

But analysts who spoke to This Week in Asia cautioned against reading too much into the large turnout at the WP rallies, noting that it was difficult to tell whether the crowd reflected genuine momentum in support of the opposition or simply people enjoying the novelty factor of being out at a political event.

Teo said: “We also need to remember that this is the first WP rally in 10 years, people are likely going over in larger numbers because they have not had a chance to attend a rally for so long. WP rallies are traditionally well-attended, but the real sign of voter momentum will always have to be the final election results.”