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- 🇲🇲 The empire strikes back in Rakhine State
🇲🇲 The empire strikes back in Rakhine State
Aerial bombings as Arakan Army claims much of the state
Hello friends!
We’re on the countdown now to the fourth anniversary of the coup in Myanmar, so over at Reformasi we had a beautifully timed and widely sweeping conversation with analyst David Mathieson. He’s also written a fascinating piece looking at the military’s air capabilities, which we touch on briefly during the conversation, for Myanmar Now.
It’s a piece that fits in really well with what I’ve done here today looking at Rakhine State and how the Arakan Army gains are reshaping the conflict very quickly. These gains are despite the military’s mammoth advantage of aerial bombing, as outlined by Mathieson.
Read this, read that, listen here. We’ve got a big few months ahead!
Let’s crack in,
Erin Cook
Taking stock in Rakhine State
At least 40 were killed after a military air strike hit Kyauk Ni Maw village of Yanbye township in Rakhine State on Wednesday, the National Unity Government and the United Nations said. Around 500 homes were also destroyed, Reuters reports. The wire notes it was not able to independently confirm — calls to military officials went unanswered — but added that ‘the junta rejects accusations of committing atrocities against civilians, saying it is combating "terrorists".’
The Associated Press reports the homes were destroyed by fires started by the bombing. It also got Khaing Thu Kha, a spokesperson for the Arakan Army, on the line, disputing junta claims that it only engages with ‘terrorists’: “All the dead were civilians. Among the dead and injured are women and children,” they said. Why Kyauk Ni Maw, in Arakan Army-controlled territory, was targeted remains unknown.
It’s the latest terrifying moment for the deeply troubled state, where the AA’s ‘significant territorial gains … are reshaping power dynamics,’ as Voice of America puts it. Khaing Thu Kha is having a busy week and chatted to VOA about the direction of the conflict. “As of December 29, 2024, our AA has completely occupied all the military bases of the fascist military council in Gwa Township. We are pursuing and attacking retreating forces,” he told the outlet.
The AA seizures came as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, a similarly controversial ethnic armed organisation from Kokang, seized strategic strongholds from the military in Shan State leading to what former Myanmar army Major Naung Yoe called an unprecedented moment for the country: “These regional commands oversee vast operational areas and are critical to military control.”
One thing I struggle with following along in Myanmar is how each state is unhappy in its own way. VOA has done a beautiful job here of laying out Rakhine’s unique unhappiness. The state is probably marginally better known to the outside world because of the Rohingya community and the genocide against it, but there are other factors involved too, VOA writes noting its strategic importance with many China-backed projects underway. The Arakan Army has long wanted to seize control of the state and has had no qualms with attacking what remains of the Rohingya community to do so. This is leading to a very complicated situation of Rohingya people in the military, initially as victims of the military’s wider policy of forced conscription. This is a super complicated angle and we will revisit because I do not want to get anything wrong here!
Myanmar Now reports here on one such instance of the AA targeting the State’s strategic interests. Earlier this week, it reported the group had seized control of the China-Myanmar pipeline station in Ann Township. The pipeline, Myanmar Now reports, runs 800 kilometres from Rakhine State to China’s Yunnan Province, cutting through Magway Region, Mandalay Region, and Shan State. As of now, the junta in Rakhine controls only the Kyaukphyu township station where the pipeline begins. Perhaps worth noting that Kyaukphyu and the bombed township of Kyauk Ni Maw are less than 70 kilometres apart.
‘The pipeline is backed by investments from China’s state-owned CNPC, South Korea’s POSCO, Indian firms, and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), a state-owned entity currently under Western sanctions,’ Myanmar Now reports. Researcher Kyaw Khaing told the outlet that oil and gas exports to China have continued unabated since the coup and before that local communities never received any sort of compensation or royalties.
“The question is how AA will handle the interests of the public versus China’s interests,” Kyaw Khaing told Myanmar Now. “There’s no way to avoid dealing with China. So we’ll have to wait and see how delicately they can manage this for the public’s benefit.”
Add to this uneasy state of affairs the rumoured sharp increase in Chinese security forces allegedly set to be deployed across the country to protect Chinese strategic, business and energy interests. Writing for the Conversation, University of South Australia’s Adam Simpson notes that the plan would test relations with just about everyone else in the neighbourhood, including India who have their own interests along the border regions.
Across the border, former Dutch ambassador turned independent analyst Laetitia van den Assum takes to Frontier Myanmar for a look at what the tumultuous change in government in Bangladesh has meant for the Rohingya. Early on, Interim Government boss Muhammad Yunus called on the international government to do more to support the 1 million Rohingya living in Bangladesh. It’s an interesting piece that looks at the opportunity presented by the fall of Sheikh Hasina, as well as that with the shift in power in Rakhine itself. It’s time to engage the Arakan Army, she writes.
Reading List:
The once formidable Myanmar military is cracking from within - riddled with spies secretly working for the pro-democracy rebels, the BBC has found.
The military only has full control of less than a quarter of Myanmar's territory, a BBC World Service investigation reveals.
The junta still controls the major cities and remains "extremely dangerous" according to the UN special rapporteur on Myanmar. But it has lost significant territory over the past 12 months - see map below.
The soldier spies are known as "Watermelons" - green on the outside, rebel red within. Outwardly loyal to the military but secretly working for the pro-democracy rebels whose symbolic colour is red.
Sanctions are just one part of the puzzle to stopping Myanmar’s military — Hunter Marston, East Asia Forum
Despite increased nationwide resistance and targeted Western sanctions, Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) junta has rejected calls for dialogue with the exiled National Unity Government and doubled down on its campaign to bomb its way out of the current morass. Military airstrikes have killed 540 civilians between January and October 2024, with 350 attacks alone in August — the highest monthly number since the February 2021 coup.
Western sanctions, previously imposed on Myanmar from 1988 to 2016 with lacklustre results, have failed to deter the military’s ongoing atrocities. Targeted sanctions have made it marginally more difficult for the military to acquire aviation fuel for its aerial bombardment of resistance forces around the country. But the sanctions have failed to alter the regime’s calculus or willingness to commit mass atrocities to remain in power.
Martin spoke with UCA News about the civil war in Myanmar, which erupted in early 2021 when the military ousted an elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. He discussed reports that China is preparing a “joint security company” with the military to protect its 771km oil and gas pipeline that runs from Myanmar’s west coast across Rakhine state and into China.
He also discusses what, if anything, can be expected in Myanmar from Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States and where that leaves the 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its much-maligned efforts to end the conflict.
Can Myanmar turn the corner in 2025? — Amitav Acharya, Nikkei Asia
When Myanmar's military under Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing seized power on Feb. 1, 2021, abruptly ending the country's decade-long democratic experiment, no one expected a quick resolution to the ensuing conflict and humanitarian disaster. But the fallout -- including death, destruction and economic damage -- has exceeded even the worst fears. Will 2025 be any different?
The regime has been fighting various armed resistance groups. These have included ethnic armed organizations, consisting of minority groups that have been fighting for autonomy since the country's independence in 1948; the People's Defense Forces (PDF) that were set up in opposition to the military takeover in 2021 under the banner of the rebel National Unity Government; and local defense forces (LDF) that were also established in 2021 by activists.
Burmese Tofu Diplomacy: Myanmar’s Democratic Forces and Their Engagement with China and India — Tin Shine Aung, the Diplomat
Without the political support of neighboring powers, Myanmar’s democratic forces face significant obstacles. Recent developments in China’s foreign policy towards Myanmar highlight this dynamic. China has actively sought to de-escalate conflicts between Myanmar’s military and ethnic armed groups, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. These groups have been urged to halt their offensives and disengage from the National Unity Government (NUG), which is nominally coordinating the nationwide resistance to military rule, signaling China’s vested interest in preserving its relationship with Myanmar’s military as a stabilizing force in the region.
Meanwhile, a United Nations report revealed that India has provided arms and materials to Myanmar’s junta, further complicating the position of Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement. These international dynamics illustrate the strategic bind in which Myanmar finds itself, caught between the competing interests of China and India.
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