🇮🇩 President Jokowi hits the road

Hello friends!

Today I’ve taken a look at President Jokowi’s visit to Ukraine and Russia and the G20 host duties. I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about this and yelling about it over pints with friends — it’s almost like being back in Jakarta! If you ignore that it’s 0 degrees and I’m constantly sick!

Which is to say: I don’t think there are any right or wrong (with a few exceptions) answers to how Indonesia navigates this tricky diplomatic year. I’d love to hear what you think, though. Comment below or hit that reply!Erin Cook

President Joko Widodo is off on a European jaunt. He’s swinging by the G7 Summit in Germany and then wants to sort out this Russia-Ukraine mess. Very ambitious, kan? The region (with one key Red Dot of exception) wasn’t too interested in getting involved back when it all kicked off but the president is keen to make up for lost time. 

For the last eight years of the Jokowi presidency foreign policy has been succinctly explained like this: Jokowi is not personally interested and has effectively empowered Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to guide Indonesian policy, which she has done deftly. Under Bu Retno, the focus has been primarily on the region, particularly with the Rohingya crisis exploding in 2017 and the Myanmar crisis now, or in the Muslim world, especially Palestine (we don’t talk about India, thanks). 

The initial reticence to speak out against the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a misstep on both the international and domestic fronts. Back home, Indonesians agitated the government to say more than platitudes about peace which did not name Russia as the aggressor. Internationally, the government was lobbied as the host of this year’s G20 summit to take a stand and rule out inviting Russian representatives — including President Vladimir Putin — to beautiful Bali. 

Rescinding an invite isn’t something to be taken lightly, but it’s also not that foreign to Indonesia. The participation of the Myanmar junta in Asean meetings is supported by chairing Cambodia, but not really anyone else. Participation gives the junta legitimacy and allows them to write off the violence as the cost of politics. Which sounds very familiar. 

BUT. President Jokowi loves the idea of being a peace broker, that this is the role Indonesia can play in the world as it comes into its own as a demographically enormous middle-power. That’s what he says his European visit this week will do — he’s going to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and then shuffle across the border to catch President Putin. He certainly has a domestic capacity to do this that few world leaders have. If my leader, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, went to visit Putin he’d be smashed. Indonesia is less inclined to care and some could even endorse the idea for some intriguing reasons.

BUT. There’s a gulf between what Jokowi wants and the reality of what’s happening here. Other world leaders have called on Indonesia to ditch the Russians this year, but Jokowi — and other foreign policy establishment leaders — won’t be acquiescing.

For Western powers who don’t want to engage Russia in Bali, like the US and Australia, it’s a real test. Western leaders typically only sit in rooms with other leaders with very similar political systems and ideologies. Indonesia isn’t phased — it always sits in rooms with leaders from distinctly different countries. We hate communism, by Vietnam and Laos are good pals in Asean. 

To force that dichotomy on Indonesia through heavy-handed lobbying for Russia’s exclusion is a mistake. It is not a natural fit for much of the world, this region included and is another wedge forcing a split which, I think, will lead to a reemergence of the Non-Aligned Movement (with a mercantilist twist, duh, it’s 2022) in all but name. With the last decade a game of US vs China in the region, it’s easy to see how the international response to the Ukraine crisis can be read as a proxy picking of sides, even if that’s not wholly accurate. 

I’m really looking forward to seeing what comes of Jokowi’s trip abroad. I think it’s very low-hanging fruit for him to condemn and voice concern and it was an enormous stumble early in the piece when Indonesia failed to do so adequately. I can’t imagine much will come of the Russia visit, especially. I don’t know much about Slavic dispositions but I’ll be very impressed if it meshes well with the Javanese style. And shocked. Mostly shocked. 

But maybe Jokowi can find a resolution to his G20 pickle which doesn’t make him look like he’s either capitulating to the US or murderous Russian dictators. We’ll see!