🇹🇭 Prayuth down but not out

Hello friends!

Today I take a look at Malaysia and Thailand where monumental political shifts have occurred. Have added some great other stories from around the region for your weekend reading pleasure. 

I did promise a look at the repealing of 377a in Singapore and the subsequent ‘debate’, but it needs a lot more work so I’ll be back shortly with that. 

See you next week for a broader regional update!Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Prayuth Chan-o-cha is benched

I am shocked. I am stunned. I said last week that the planned demonstrations against Prayuth Chan-o-cha over his term limit — which many say began in the nascent days of the 2014 military government — expiring on Wednesday would be spectacular, but I did not expect this!

The Constitutional Court has accepted a case lodged by the opposition to work out once and for all when the eight-year timer begins on Prayuth’s leadership. And for the duration, he will be suspended. “The court has determined by a 5-4 vote to suspend Gen. Prayuth from the duties of Prime Minister from Aug. 24 onward until the court reaches a [final] verdict,” a statement from the court released Wednesday said, as per Nikkei Asia.

He remains in the cabinet as defence minister but has spent the second half of this week indulging in working from home, according to the Bangkok Post. There are mounting calls for him to give up that post as well but he enjoys the full backing of Army chief Gen Narongphan Jitkaewthae: “He should be praised for following the democratic process and the rule of law ... When the judicial branch tells the executive branch what should be done, the executive branch shows its willingness to comply.” Still, to be a fly on the wall of that home office. Prayuth is always totally losing it over regular inconveniences or perceived slights, imagine this week! 

Senior deputy prime minister and close ally Prawit Wongsuwan has been placed in a caretaker role. He’s an interesting fella. Whenever I think of him, my mind goes first to the 2018 watch scandal in which an anti-corruption watchdog cleared him of any wrongdoing for owning two dozen extraordinarily expensive luxury watches. It also kicked off a luxury watch-watch of leaders in neighbouring countries. Besides being very aware of the time, Prawit is a very well-known quantity and, in addition to having only limited powers, he is unlikely to deviate from the norm. 

Call him the Thai Dick Cheney, Ken Mathis Lohatepanont writes in the Thai Enquirer. He’s very unpopular and while he wields a load of power as leader of the dominant Palang Pracharath party, he’s unlikely to be a serious contender for long-term leadership. And at 77 years-old, he’s the oldest prime minister, acting or otherwise, in Thai history, and that’s a hard sell. 

So, what happens next? One thing that is clear from all the analysis is the APEC Summit deadline in November has, if anything, only become more crucial to the government. Political analyst Punchada Sirivunnabood told Straits Times she wouldn’t be surprised to see if Prayuth is cleared and the can kicked down the road a few more months. “This conference is really important for Thailand, and they don't want anything bad to happen to it,” she said. 

The consensus is the court is likely to play along. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the political expert at Chulalongkorn University whom I seem to be quoting weekly lately!, told the AP that the public and the courts have diametrically opposed desires: “Looking at how the court has always ruled in his favour, it would not be a surprise if the Constitutional Court comes up with a technicality. We must remember it was appointed during the military regime.”

And that will big time kick off the punters, virtually every expert says. The economy is faring very poorly and Prayuth is hardly seen as a capable economic manager. The cost of living is skyrocketing and instant noodles have been approved for a price increase for the first time in 14 years. A sign of the times. Opposition parties have vowed to focus on economic policies in the lead-up to the election — which, I keep almost forgetting, has to be held by March.

I found this quote from Punchada Sirivunnabood in the ST story mentioned above particularly intriguing. Sacrificing Prayuth for the good of the government could be on the cards, she thinks, because:  “It could be a way to ease public dissatisfaction, given the number of people taking to the streets. Even red shirts and yellow shirts are coming together.” 

🇲🇾 Najib supporters eye Royal hail Mary

Off to the slammer with former prime minister Najib Razak. Bored and increasingly agitated by Najib’s courtroom antics, the court Tuesday drew a line in the sand and sent him to prison for 12 years. He also has a few other related cases left to be tried. 

I loved this op-ed originally published in the Chinese-language paper Sin Chew Daily which is just dripping in schadenfreude. “And thanks to Bossku's wildly popular image among the masses, Umno has seen a ray of hope to return to Putrajaya in a huge way. But sorry, Sir, you are not the "boss" in the court. The judges are!” writes Chong Lip Teck, who is having the time of their life. 

The final battleground is at the palace. Najib supporters presented a memorandum on Wednesday, signed by 300 supporters, calling for King Abdullah to grant a pardon to the former PM. The memo also requests an investigation into presiding judge Mohd Nazlan Mohd Ghazali. 

There is some precedent here. Anwar Ibrahim was famously granted a pardon but, uh, that was very different. Mahathir Mohamad reckons there’s a 50-50 chance here that it will be granted. I don’t know one way or the other, but I do think it would be very silly. Under King Abdullah, the monarchy has had an outsized political role and Mahathir has, of course, his own long-running beef with the royal families so I’m genuinely unsure if his view is reasonable or another attempted denigration. 

Anyway. Don’t do it! Say 35,000 signers of a petition launched by anti-corruption and electoral reform group Bersih. “As a nation, we must not tolerate corruption or the corrupt, whoever that person may be. Let Najib serve his 12 years in jail and pay the RM210 million fine to serve as an example to leaders who think they can abuse their position,” the petition says. 

The win is enormous. Huge! And enjoy it, because the war on corruption is only just beginning. 

Rosmah is up next. But I really want to know: where the frick is Jho Low?

Further reading:

• An appreciation (Mekong Review)

• The AI startup erasing call center worker accents: is it fighting bias – or perpetuating it? (The Guardian)

• She is loved in China, so can ex-Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos play peacemaker? (Straits Times) 

• Revealed: Indonesian workers on UK farm ‘at risk of debt bondage’ (The Guardian) 

• As junta squeezes courts, Myanmar’s lawyers are forced to face their worst fears (Myanmar Now)

• Desperate junta recruitment drive leaves delta villagers fearful – and in debt (Frontier Myanmar)