🇹🇭 Pita feels good, but nothing certain ahead of prime minister vote

Hello friends!

A quick update from me today as we count down to the vote for prime minister. There’s been a small flurry of reporting over the weekend but I am very much looking forward to the analysis and deeper reporter I expect we’ll get Friday.

I haven’t touched on the various cases that may derail any bid from Pita Limjaroenrat as there’s not much in the way of updates just yet. But I am keeping an eye out.

Ooh, boy! Let’s go! 

Erin Cook

Thailand’s brand new parliament will vote Thursday for its new prime minister. What happens next is anyone’s guess, though I will say I feel a bit queasy. Here’s what I’ve been reading to stay on top as we head towards what could be one of the most fateful days (or, more likely, months) for Thailand politics in a long time. 

A candidate needs to secure 376 votes of the 750 parliamentarians, including 250 senators. Move Forward won a staggering 140 seats in the election and do have some friends in the house, but will need support from other quarters.

Pita Limjaroenrat and his Move Forward Party will “not step back” ahead of the vote, he told orange-clad supporters at an event in Bangkok on Sunday. “I don’t know how long we will have to wait before the golden chance of July 13 will come again,” he said, reminding the military-aligned senators who hold crucial votes that “we’re all the people’s politicians.” “My thanks to those that say they’re on the people’s side and siding with the people’s majority,” he said, as reported by AFP. 

That’s just the first hurdle. Trouble in paradise between the Pheu Thai and Move Forward coalition emerged immediately after the vote itself, and that’s unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. 

“The feelings of people in the Pheu Thai Party, that it used to be a heavyweight that had won many elections and was able to be an agenda setter,” Attachak Sattayanurak, a professor of history at Chiang Mai University, told Al Jazeera. That belief is behind the hard fight for the speakership, but it’s an existential problem for both parties and will surely continue to erupt. 

Other parties in the loose-ish coalition are also after some guidance on how, exactly, Thursday is going to play out. If Pita is not elected prime minister on the first vote — which is highly likely at this stage — what happens? Bangkok Post reports that the new speaker (more below) has said he will allow voting to continue until someone is named, and that’s raised rumours that voting may continue until the senate term expires next May. Next May! 

Pheu Thai Secretary-General Prasert Chantararuangthong told Bangkok Post he doesn’t expect to hear much from Move Forward on the matter, since they appear to feel like they have it in the bag. 

For those who want to get deep into the speaker drama weeds, you must read Ken Mathis Lohatepanont at Thai Enquirer. He flags that Prachachart Party’s Wan Muhammad Noor Matha’s election to the seat as a compromise candidate will have big issues ahead for Move Forward. He is unlikely to support many of Move Forward’s progressive bills, like marriage equality and whatever ends up getting done about lese-majeste. 

Elsewhere, senators that have previously given their support publicly or privately to Pita have since walked it back. They cite both the lese majeste reform concerns and worries over foreign policy — a thinly-veiled reference to the perception among some that the Move Forward Party are in the pocket of the US. 

It’s all very confusing and messy. So let me leave you today with this fantastic report from Nikkei Asia over the weekend. It looks at how microbreweries and legislation around start-up beer producers convinced many voters that Move Forward is the one to back. A refreshing treat, read it in full here!

I’ll be back Friday on whatever does or does not happen come Thursday.