🇵🇭 Election season is upon us

Hello friends!

The Philippines has had a busy fortnight, so today is dedicated to everything Filipino. The enormous Department of Migrant Workers is moving quickly to assist Filipinos in Lebanon amid fighting there while back at home nominations have opened for next year’s midterm elections. 

And then there’s Alice Guo, of course! Every time we talk about her I have to surprise the obvious urge. A woman named Alice, and we don’t know who she is? I’ve just learnt this isn’t an Australian special and none of the videos do quite the same justice as a public-health-hazard-pub singing it, but you know what I’m getting at. 

Across the way, this week’s episode of Reformasi co-hosted by myself and Kevin O’Rourk is extra good. We chatted with friend of the letter James Guild, an economist researching infrastructure under President Joko Widodo. Fascinating chat, give it a listen: 

I’ll be back tomorrow for a Myanmar update,
Erin Cook

DMW moves quickly in Lebanon

The Department of Migrant Workers have helped 94 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and their families evacuate outside of Beirut, the department told media yesterday. It, of course, comes amid heightening tensions in Lebanon. Sixty-three OFWs were evacuated from Dahieh, the southern town where Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Inquirer reports. 

The department is struggling to access commercial flights out of the country, but has vowed to continue repatriation efforts.  “The DMW is also studying the possibility of other routes. Apart from air route, we will be assessing the sea and the land route should the case or the situation there worsen,” DMW Undersecretary Bernard Olalia said yesterday. 

Arab News reports around 11,000 Filipinos live and work in Lebanon, which surely must be putting the government on edge. The struggle to get this relatively small cohort of OFWs out of harm is one thing, but a larger-scale conflict would be a disaster. “They are worried about the bombings and the explosions coming closer to their homes, in their communities. So, they are worried for their safety, they are worried for their life and not being able to go back home safely to their families,” Migrante International, an organisation representing OFW interests across the world, president Joanna Concepcion said. “They feel there is nowhere safe anymore. They feel that Israel can target anywhere, anytime.” 

Less money, more problems in the Duterte/Marcos split

The Office of the Vice President, home to Sara Duterte, has had its budget slashed by the lower house, Reuters reports. In a vote led by House Speaker Martin Romualdez (who Reuters notes is the cousin of President Bongbong Marcos) 285-3 voted in favour last week for the incoming budget. Duterte’s office was allocated 1.3 billion pesos of the 6.352 trillion pesos ($113.5 billion) funding next year. 

Crucially, Duterte only showed up to deliberations once. I’d imagine she’s sick of the accountability process that has needled her office’s spending over the years, including a very controversial discretionary fund and that weird thing with the children’s book. “She was invited three times, but she did not show up. As representatives of the people, we expect all public officials to fulfil their duties, especially when it comes to the national budget,” Romualdez said. 

Bayan, an alliance of progressive groups, has impeachment on the mind. Bayan chairperson Teddy Casiño told media last week that the party will file for impeachment when Congress resumes next month, the Inquirer reports here in a handy explainer of what that process looks like in the Philippine system. 

It’ll hardly come as a surprise for Duterte herself. In mid-September she was already framing the criticism as simply groundwork for an impeachment: “Oh yeah, very obvious. It is very obvious that they are practicing for what they would do during an impeachment proceeding,” she told media during the initial budget hearings. 

And then there’s Apollo Quiboloy. The arrest of the preacher/human trafficking suspect has further cleaved the president and vice president. Marcos has walked the line of law enforcement, noting that Quiboloy will be afforded the rights he’s guaranteed but that he won’t be given any special treatment. He’s also widely commended the police work that ended the weeks-long siege on the southern Philippines compound of Quiboloy’s Kingdom of Jesus Christ compound. 

That’s not the case for Duterte. Her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, is a longtime ally of Quiboloy and he’s often, when the list of charges for which he’s been indicted in the US is exhausted, noted as a ‘spiritual advisor’ to the big man of Davao. 

For Duterte Jr, this means leaning in. The police operation on the compound was an “abuse of power and an assault on freedom of religion,” Duterte said. She has also apologised to Quiboloy’s followers for running with Marcos in the 2022 election, Nikkei Asia reports.  

Midterms may reveal all (or not) 

Off to the races! Candidacy certification filing is on this week as the country gears up for next May’s elections. The lower house is fully up for grabs as is half the senate with 12 seats for all vying. A whole lot of local government positions are also up, including governors and mayors. ABS-CBN has the whole list here. Campaigning won’t officially begin until January but unofficially: it’s on. 

Rappler has one of their excellent live blogs following along with the announcements all week here. There have been a few stories that have stood out to me. Manila Mayor Honey Lacuna and Vice Mayor Yul Servo refiled together this morning to defend their office. There are too many family connections to mention — including a new Pacquiao, son Michael, who is running for a General Santos City council spot — and dynasty is still very much the game. 

One major dynastic name won’t be on the Marcos administration’s senate ticket and that’s sister Imee. She announced Monday that she would withdraw her name, saying she wanted to ‘protect her younger brother President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. from being placed at risk and to shield her friends from getting hurt,’ as the Inquirer reported it. That is to say: she’s not choosing a side.

Sara Duterte and Imee Marcos have always had a friendship removed from their respective father and brother. On questioning if the breakdown with the president was personal in nature, Duterte noted that she’d never really been friendly with Bongbong and was a longtime pal of Imee. It’s this relationship that has Imee’s words about Bongbong particularly intriguing. “Uniteam was a dream that I shared in 2022. And I hold fast to that dream of unity for all Filipinos,” she said Monday, referring to the tandem ticket. She’ll go it alone, she says, but I’m watching! 

Spy vs (alleged) spy in Alice Guo case

Alice Guo is not a Chinese spy, she told the House last week after an Al Jazeera documentary aired on Sept. 26. The former mayor of Tarlac has faced allegations of being a Chinese national and part of the security apparatus since the explosive case came to light earlier this year, but the allegations contained in the documentary are particularly hot. The whole thing is very interesting, but the Alice Guo section begins about 17 minutes in:

101 East does a good job of making it clear that while She Zhijiang is a character that can’t quite be pinned down, the team checked the workings to make sure the allegations he makes about Alice Guo — that she is, indeed, a Chinese spy — are plausible. 

Using Guo’s (I think alleged?) Chinese name Guo Hua Ping, She Zhijiang addresses her: “Guo Hua Ping, China cannot be trusted. The two of us once dedicated our lives to China’s Ministry of State Security. Look at what happened to me. If you don’t want to be eliminated, you should tell the world the truth.” 

Alice Guo rejected all of the allegations made in the documentary and was very frustrated at them being aired, Rappler reported. 

Spy, no spy, whatever, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said on Monday. “What is clear is that she is not a Filipino. Secondly, she falsified documents to pretend that she is a Filipino, and thirdly, she was an active co-conspirator to a massive illegal criminal enterprise,” he told the Inquirer. Which, I say, is fair enough. The (alleged) involvement in POGOs is scum behaviour enough! 

He did have this interesting aside, however. Even if it’s proven Alice Guo is a spy, there’s not much that can done about it. “We should punish espionage in times of peace because the espionage law in the Philippines is only effective in times of war,” he said. Better get on that one.