🇵🇭 Senate results set the tone for the long three years ahead

Hello friends!

I don’t know when the Filipino midterms officially started. They ended yesterday with the vote, but I think they actually began May 2022, immediately after the presidential election.

This race shows us who is up and who is down for the next three years, but also a bit of a taste for contenders in the next presidential election. But before I get far too ahead of myself, let’s check in on how it stands 24 hours after polls closed (more or less).

Erin Cook

The Magic 12 loses its spark, for some

Across the country, 18,000 offices were up for grabs, but it’s the dozen senate seats that we’ll fixate on. 

Bong Go, who has had a very bizarre few years trying to vie for all sorts of seats (president mostly), has come out on top by miles. He is a key Rodrigo Duterte ally — remember the pizza? — and that he was overwhelmingly voted up has been taken as a sure sign of the Dutertes’ enduring political power. Bong Go does a very good job of riding Duterte coattails, but faltered in 2022 so I’ll be very interested to see what he does for the next three years in the lead up to the next presidential race. Can he stand on his own? Or would he have to pay fealty via a Sara Duterte nomination? 

It’s a similar question for Ronald ‘Bato’ dela Rosa, who is also part of the inner sanctum as a former national police and Davao City police chief. Though he’s definitely expecting a free ride, no refusals allowed, flight to the Hague eventually, so we’ll see. Rodante Marcoleta will move from the House into the Senate, and has previously indicated he’ll stay loyal to the Dutertes, Time reports. 

Sara Duterte wants more. With votes still being counted Monday night, she was disappointed more allies won’t be taking up seats. Still, she will persist goddamnit: “While the outcome was not what we had hoped for, our commitment to the people remains unwavering. We will continue to hold the government accountable, advocate for the issues that matter, and work tirelessly to serve as a strong and constructive opposition,” she said in a statement, as per the Inquirer. 

Of course, for Duterte the younger here, this isn’t just a case of getting a legislative agenda (remember those!) going. These senators will decide her fate. After a vote to have her booted from the VP office sailed through the House in February, it was kicked up to the Senate for final say. That was pushed off until the midterms and the dust isn’t settling quite as clearly as she’d hoped. Nothing I’ve read yet is willing to go out on a limb and say if the numbers are there just yet to confirm if she’ll be impeached. Might be a cracking time to trade some horses, for some.  

And then there’s Team Marcos. Loyalists of the president are on track to snag half of the 12 spots, Reuters reports. That will make it easier for President Marcos to get his policies through, I guess, and also lines it up for a fiery showdown on impeachment. 

Interestingly, as I write this, Imee Marcos is sitting in 12th spot. She’s got a handy margin on unlucky 13, but that would have her squeak in at last spot. She’s been non-committal, playing off her brother and her friend Sara, over the years, and I think it’s interesting to see that her personal support is quite low. What I wouldn’t give for a New Yorker-style profile on her and her positions. Elsewhere, Manny Pacquiao is nowhere near the top and will surely be out.  

Bam Aquino (of the Aquinos) is back after losing his senate spot in the 2019 race. He’ll be joined by Kiko Pangilinan, running mate to Leni Robredo in the presidential race in 2022, in what is widely seen as an informal ‘third option’ for Filipinos not interested in throwing their lot in with either the Marcos or the Duterte clans. 

“This is a protest vote against the Marcos administration. It’s very apocalyptic for Alyansa,” Aries Arugay, a political scientist currently at ISEAS, told the Straits Times, referring to the Marcos alliance. Marcos has appeared a bit cocky lately (my take, not Aries’) and the result reveals that he may have been overly confident: “His endorsement is not powerful even if he is the incumbent President. In fact, his endorsement is only co-equal to Sara Duterte’s. They cancel each other out,” Aries added. 

Which is great news for Aquino. He’s a known quantity, from a respected family and a strong option: “He’s neither from the Marcos nor Duterte camps, he’s a returning senator, and he hails from the Aquino political clan, where two of our former presidents belong.” 

Nothing can stop a Duterte in Davao, and other mayoral races

The headline mayor race is, of course, down in Davao City. A Duterte winning is a no-brainer, but the logistics for this Duterte is intriguing. From his new digs in the Hague, former president turned crimes against humanity suspect Rodrigo Duterte has handily won re-election of the city his family has controlled for time immemorial. With 60% returned, Duterte led on 405,000 votes to his challenger’s 49,000, the Guardian reported overnight. 

No one seems to know how this works. How does he do his oath, let alone govern! I’m sure there is no shortage of yes-men hoping to play proxy and become the anointed successor. 

His former vice president will have no such troubles. Leni Robredo walked into the Naga City mayoralty handily with 80,963 votes at 80% returned, ABS-CBN reports. Her closest rival, Toots De Quiros, recorded just over 6,000 in the same period. You may remember there had been a monster push to have her run in the senate, which she demurred saying more to do in Naga. But with Kiko and Aquino’s wins, you do have to wonder if she’s regretting that move now? 

Manila’s former mayor Isko Moreno has downed incumbent Honey Lacuna easily, Rappler reports. Moreno picked up 547,001 votes to Lacuna’s 193,186 with 71% counted late last night. He served as mayor for the very tricky tenure of 2019 to 2022 across the capital’s pandemic years during which time then-vice mayor Lacuna, a doctor, became a close and trusted ally. Moreno jumped ship in 2022 for a failed presidency bid, popping Lacuna into the top spot. Musical chairs, Manila style. 

No upsets next door in Quezon City, where Joy Belmonte secured her third term on a staggering 795,625 votes with just over 75% counted, PhilStar reported overnight. Her closest challenger, independent candidate Diosdado Velasco, booked 16,302 votes in the same count. 

Down the way in Cebu City, local councillor Nestor Archival secured the win, according to Rappler. 

Vico Sotto, whose (nepo baby) win in 2019 at just 30 excited the press, has been returned handily as Pasig City mayor for the third time. “We are business as usual. But if we can, our offices should do better in working on our programs and projects. We should improve our services in the local government every day, not just every year,” he told city workers this morning, as per NewsWatch. 

Violence, busted machines and vote-buying: the three election dependables

Philippine National Police chief Gen. Rommel Francisco Marbil told media Monday that the election had been largely peaceful and brief sparks of violence had been quickly snuffed, the Inquirer reports. “We will get rid of those who will disrupt the elections and we want arrests. I want more arrests. No one should disrupt the elections,” he said, as reported by the Inquirer. Jeeze, okay. 

In Bangued, the provincial capital of Abra, two voters were injured after shooting broke out. It occurred 300 metres or so from a local polling booth and officials told Inquirer voting continued no dramas. In Negros Occidental, two were killed after being shoot from a moving van at the Barangay Mambulac poll booth. Seven others were injured. There are mixed reports of who was killed — one outlet I read said they were supporters of the incumbent mayor Joedith Gallego, monitoring vote-buying, while another cites police reports saying they were local officials investigating vote-buying allegations. 

Voters reported issues with voting machines to the Commission on Elections (Comelec), a complaint which is now as much a feature of Filipino elections as a Duterte winning Davao. The agency says 311 machines had to be replaced yesterday across the country, most malfunctioning due to bonkers heat, and reports of overcounting were minimal, PhilStar reports.

And if issues with the machines are a feature, allegations of vote-buying must be fundamental. At the end of last week, the PNP announced it had filed cases against 18 individuals across the country, alleged to be involved in vote-buying, GMA reports. I think it’s hand to quote fully from GMA to illustrate what this looks like in practice:

Among the acts presumed as vote-buying and vote-selling were possession, transportation, and/or carrying cash exceeding P500,000 [$8,980 USD] along with campaign paraphernalia two days before and on election day, giving or distributing assistance or “ayuda,” and long lines or queues of registered voters for distribution of money, grocery items intended to sway a person to vote for or against any candidate.

Loved this intriguing one from Rappler, reporting that GCash, the country’s dominant digital wallet, throttled transfers to new accounts in the lead up to the election. “These steps are being taken to ensure a fair and safe election. By stopping financial influence on people’s votes, we can ensure that the people’s real voices will prevail in the election results,” GCash said in a statement. It follows Comelec targeting vote-buying specifically in the months before the vote.