🇵🇭 Is this South China Sea clash an escalation?

Hello friends!

A very busy week in the Philippines with huge developments both at sea and on land.

Not too much news just yet on a follow up to the Reuters investigation unmasking a US Department of Defence misinformation campaign against vaccines during the pandemic, but I ought to flag that Senator Imee Marcos and House Representative France Castro both filed this week to further investigate the report, according to Reuters.

See you next week!
Erin Cook

Before we crack in, just want to send a huge ‘what a legend’ to Jack Lorenz Acebedo Rivera. The Ateneo de Manila University psychology student attended an online panel ‘Building Bridges Across Asia Pacific’ with the Pope — and used the opportunity to tell him off for his reportedly repeated use of homophobic language. 

“Stop using offensive language against the LGBTQIA+ community, this leads to immense pain,” he said, as reported by Reuters. It’s often hard enough to speak up, let alone when it’s against the Pope. Well done! 

Very rocky waters in the South China Sea

Okay, we’re getting to a pointy end of the Philippines and China clashing so we’ll just touch on it briefly today before I read everything I can and don’t embarrass myself. 

Philippines Armed Forces Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner Jr. accused China of ‘piracy’ on Wednesday after an incident in the Second Thomas Shoal on Monday. During that face-off, a routine Filipino resupply mission was disrupted by Chinese Coast Guard personnel. He alleges the personnel were carrying knives and spears and also stole equipment, Nikkei Asia reports. One Filipino sailor lost his finger in the incident, Washington Post reports.

Video of the incident has since been released by the AFP, as seen in this thread from Al Jazeera corro Barnaby Lo. 

“Despite this, our troops fought with their bare hands to push them away. They were preventing the Chinese Coast Guard from hitting them with their bolos and machete and other bladed weapons. I want to remove the impression that our soldiers let the CCG just steal and destroy our property,” Brawner said. 

We didn’t do anything! Says the Chinese Coast Guard in its response. The Filipino vessel “ignored China’s repeated solemn warnings … and dangerously approached a Chinese vessel in normal navigation in an unprofessional manner, resulting in a collision,” the CCG said in a statement, as per AP. “The Philippines is entirely responsible for this.” 

I have seen a marked increase in talk about what would trigger the Mutual Defence Treaty with the US. As sad as it is, a lost finger isn’t going to do it. So what would? That’s what I’ll be reading up about over the coming days!

Schools out for Sara

Back on dry land, she’s outta here! Vice President Sara Duterte does not want to be Education Secretary anymore and President Bongbong Marcos Jr says no problem. She is unlikely to leave the office given how high the profile is and it will allow her to act as an opposition figure to Marcos — similar to what former vice president Leni Robredo did to her papa. 

“Che can be perceived as 'going rogue' and/or abandoning public service itself. Either way, it is a bad gesture for a society that values loyalty to the government even if it is a form of critical support rather than blind obedience,” Anthony Lawrence Borja, an associate professor at De La Salle University in Manila, told Nikkei Asia in this interesting immediate analysis. 

A key thing to remember here, I think, is that Duterte never wanted the education portfolio. She was very openly and publicly vying for defence and appeared to grin and bear it when that was denied. Educators didn’t want it either. She opened war on teachers last year after accusing the Alliance of Concerned Teachers, one of the largest teachers groups in the country, of being a “lover of the useless ideologies” professed by communist groups, Rappler reported.  

Bonz Magsambol, a Rappler reporter covering education, has a comprehensive piece here covering her tenure, including the controversial period in which Duterte demanded in-person classes despite lingering pandemic risks in 2022. Most controversially, however, was the request for millions in confidential funds, a request denied but ultimately totally undermined her authority in the role. 

The Philippines has trailed in global testing scores, so beyond the Uniteam collapse, I hope this will mean some new life in the Department of Education. 

Few are surprised by the formal collapse of the Uniteam. Despite the occasional protestation from either Duterte or Marcos in recent months, it’s been clear the pair aren’t on the same page at all and the team was doomed. A handy timeline here of various flashpoints in that from GMA. 

Well, whatever happens she’s definitely not in the opposition, says former senator and current Liberal Party spokesperson Leila de Lima. The LP-led opposition “has a foundation of accountability, transparency and concern for the people — which cannot be seen in VP Sara’s track record,” she said, as per the Inquirer.

“The opposition puts the people first, not the expansion and maintenance of power; not defending wanted religious leaders or killing of thousands of Filipinos; especially not turning a blind eye on the oppression of our fishermen and foreigners stealing our territories,” she added. 

I’d be rubbing my hands together if I were the opposition. Next year’s midterms were already hotly contested, but with not even a nod at unity anymore between Duterte and Marcos in Malacanang, divide and conquer has gotten somewhat easier. But! That enormous Filipino politics caveat, factions are made and dissolved on a turn so by the time I send this the make-up could look entirely different again. 

Elsewhere down south. ‘FACT CHECK: Ex-president Duterte is alive,’ says a Rappler headline yesterday. It rebuked a viral video spreading across TikTok which purported to be from GMA announcing the death of Duterte. In true Duterte form, he posted proof of life via ally Bong Go on Facebook Live. 

What’s he plotting down there? Between this and the South China Sea, I’ve taken my eye off the former president. He’s still pushing for ‘reform,’ he told an audience in Angeles, Pampanga, via a recorded message, Philstar reports. He couldn’t be there in person because he’s a broke boy: “I am retired, my money I just keep. I am in retirement, that is my source of sustenance. Sorry I could not go. But would like to congratulate you for your gesture to show to the country and to the world that we have grievances,” he said, encouraging further protestations against the Marcos government.