🇹🇭 Parliament sits Monday, when will the chaos begin?

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We’ve got two big ones here from Thailand and Cambodia today, so enough of that housekeeping. Let’s crack in!

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 It’s go time

Thailand is holding its breath. As ordered by a royal decree, the new parliament will meet for the first time Monday. It’ll give us our first look at what progress has been made in post-May-election politicking. There are two major issues that will captivate much of the coming coverage: firstly, Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat prime ministerial bid and the investigations and secondly, the endurance in the Move Forward-Phue Thai coalition as the reality hits. 

There’s been little development on the Pita front this week, but I was interested in this piece from Pravit Rojanaphruk on what could happen if Pita is rejected. Protests and clashes between supporters and the security apparatus shouldn’t be discounted and indeed should “be expected,” Pravit writes. He notes that the generational shift between 2014 and now gives us many unknowns. “The young and politicized voters, including those still too young to vote, are the key variable here and if there is a coup attempt in the months ahead, it will also be their biggest political test.”

Paul Chambers has tackled this year’s army leadership reshuffle for East Asia Forum. “The reshuffle takes effect annually on 1 October and Prayuth could send a list to the palace at the beginning of August before he steps down,” Chambers writes, flagging that caretaker Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha will likely shore up “his personal protégé” Deputy Army Commander General Jaroenchai Hintao.

Even if Prayuth’s plans are pipped by Pita or Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin as prime minister, Chalmers writes, “leadership of Thailand’s army-dominant military will not be obedient to progressive civilian leaders” and will move to block any sorts of reforms either leader would hope to introduce. 

Chalmers is the bluntest in his analysis, but it reflects a sentiment that was merely winked at during the lead-up to election coverage: “If a progressive prime minister takes office, Thailand will likely look forward to growing pandemonium.” 

This sort of blatant maneuvering should engender deeper motives for Pheu Thai and Move Forward to keep the coalition together — but politics is politics! Writing for the Diplomat, analyst Tita Lee notes that the two parties diverge on issues more fundamental to the parties than just the Speaker seat. 

Move Forward’s “flagship bills” — that is, to reform the draconian lese-majeste laws, drop conscription and target other laws that they say curb democratic norms and equality — are unacceptable to Pheu Thai. As an older party, Pheu Thai has operated largely within the messy framework in recent years and is less keen to rock the boat. 

But, Tita writes, the beef isn’t just between the two parties, it’s within Pheu Thai too. A suggestion made by deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai to cut the party’s losses on Speaker and instead aim for the two deputy speaker spots was rejected vehemently by Pheu Thai cadres. Party stalwart politician Adisorn Piangket said Pheu Thai “is not a branch of the MFP,” she writes. 

This is a piece that must be read in full. Tita has done a brilliant job of succinctly laying out the issues within the relationship, but I was particularly struck by this line: “Deep down, PTP executives probably foresee the inevitable demise of the MFP-led coalition.” 

That is a lot of countdown clocks ahead. Here’s hoping Move Forward has a restful weekend — they’re going to need it. 

🇰🇭 Hun Sen logs off

Former Facebook superfan, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, has rage-quit the platform. 

“I have decided to stop using Facebook, on which I have more than 14 million followers. I have requested my assistant to delete my Facebook account immediately. And I will also inform the company to delete my name from Facebook,” he wrote in a statement to his Telegram account late last night, as per Nikkei Asia.

It follows a recommendation from the independent oversight committee at Meta, Facebook’s parent company. The group this week found a video Hun Sen posted back in January in which he denied allegations the Cambodian People’s Party had bought votes in last year’s commune elections — and supporters should beat up anyone who says they did. 

Reuters reports that Facebook had flagged the video at the time as violating community rules. But, given he’s a country's Prime Minister, it was left up under a “newsworthiness” exemption. 

“Hun Sen uses social media to amplify threats against his opponents, spreading them more widely and causing more harm than he would be able to do without access to Meta’s platforms,” the committee wrote in its report, as per Al Jazeera. “Hun Sen’s use of the platforms to incite violence against his political opposition, taken in the context of his history, his government’s human rights abuses, and the upcoming election combine to require immediate action.” 

The committee decision gives Meta 60 days to decide whether to suspend Hun Sen’s Instagram and Facebook accounts, but he isn’t waiting around to find out. 

This isn’t just an old man getting annoyed at the computer. Phnom Penh-based journalist Ananth Baliga notes the knock-on effect could be substantial. With Facebook as the primary means by which various ministries share information with Khmer communities, connections could be severed. Additionally, as Baliga writes, years of statements and other documents have simply disappeared:

Nikkei Asia in the above piece reports Hun Sen’s Telegram channel has 855,000 subscribers. Government spokesperson Phay Siphan told the outlet that government data shows Telegram is now more popular in the country than Facebook and, interestingly, is better at Khmer translations. He also denied the video was ‘incitement.’ 

I’m curious to see what happens here. It’s less than a month until the bogus election and Facebook is a necessary campaign tool world over. Also, speaking from personal experience, making a big fuss about leaving a platform that you’re addicted to typically ends with eventually returning with your tail between your legs. 

It has reminded me, however, of when he posted a whole bunch of terrible and odd photos from a hospital bed in Singapore back in 2017. RIP to Hun Sen’s Facebook. 

A quick addendum! This from AFP has just popped up as I was readying to send: “Don't be arrogant, you guys are staying overseas, you are using Facebook for communications, we could block Facebook,” Hun Sen said this morning in Pursat province, seemingly addressing Khmer living abroad. He urged attendees to download Line, TikTok, Telegram, Viber and, uh, Facebook-owned WhatsApp.