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- đčđ Parliament sits Monday, when will the chaos begin?
đčđ Parliament sits Monday, when will the chaos begin?
đ°đ Hun Sen tries a digital detox
Hello friends!
This week has seen a whole lot of new subscribers sign up â thank you so much! Itâs always fun when a whole lot of new people join at the same time. Like someone has passed on the word or linked my work somewhere and encouraged sign-ups.
Typically, I send off three newsletters a week. Two are for premium subscribers and look at developments across the region, and a third is for all readers going deeper on a couple of key stories, like todayâs read focusing on Thailand and Cambodia.
But now is an extra good time to sign up for premium because as of next week, those two newsletters will become three! Malaysia and Singapore will be broken out of the maritime newsletter to its own standalone, for now at least. This is prompted by Malaysia, which is just about the busiest country in the region already but will soon be holding half a dozen state elections.
If youâd like to join us for that please do so here:
I also offer free annual subscriptions for Asean and Timorese nationals under 30, so if thatâs you, just hit reply and let me know a little about yourself.
Weâve got two big ones here from Thailand and Cambodia today, so enough of that housekeeping. Letâs crack in!
Erin Cook
đčđ Itâs go time
Thailand is holding its breath. As ordered by a royal decree, the new parliament will meet for the first time Monday. Itâll give us our first look at what progress has been made in post-May-election politicking. There are two major issues that will captivate much of the coming coverage: firstly, Move Forwardâs Pita Limjaroenrat prime ministerial bid and the investigations and secondly, the endurance in the Move Forward-Phue Thai coalition as the reality hits.
Thereâs been little development on the Pita front this week, but I was interested in this piece from Pravit Rojanaphruk on what could happen if Pita is rejected. Protests and clashes between supporters and the security apparatus shouldnât be discounted and indeed should âbe expected,â Pravit writes. He notes that the generational shift between 2014 and now gives us many unknowns. âThe young and politicized voters, including those still too young to vote, are the key variable here and if there is a coup attempt in the months ahead, it will also be their biggest political test.â
Paul Chambers has tackled this yearâs army leadership reshuffle for East Asia Forum. âThe reshuffle takes effect annually on 1 October and Prayuth could send a list to the palace at the beginning of August before he steps down,â Chambers writes, flagging that caretaker Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha will likely shore up âhis personal protĂ©gĂ©â Deputy Army Commander General Jaroenchai Hintao.
Even if Prayuthâs plans are pipped by Pita or Pheu Thaiâs Srettha Thavisin as prime minister, Chalmers writes, âleadership of Thailandâs army-dominant military will not be obedient to progressive civilian leadersâ and will move to block any sorts of reforms either leader would hope to introduce.
Chalmers is the bluntest in his analysis, but it reflects a sentiment that was merely winked at during the lead-up to election coverage: âIf a progressive prime minister takes office, Thailand will likely look forward to growing pandemonium.â
This sort of blatant maneuvering should engender deeper motives for Pheu Thai and Move Forward to keep the coalition together â but politics is politics! Writing for the Diplomat, analyst Tita Lee notes that the two parties diverge on issues more fundamental to the parties than just the Speaker seat.
Move Forwardâs âflagship billsâ â that is, to reform the draconian lese-majeste laws, drop conscription and target other laws that they say curb democratic norms and equality â are unacceptable to Pheu Thai. As an older party, Pheu Thai has operated largely within the messy framework in recent years and is less keen to rock the boat.
But, Tita writes, the beef isnât just between the two parties, itâs within Pheu Thai too. A suggestion made by deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai to cut the partyâs losses on Speaker and instead aim for the two deputy speaker spots was rejected vehemently by Pheu Thai cadres. Party stalwart politician Adisorn Piangket said Pheu Thai âis not a branch of the MFP,â she writes.
This is a piece that must be read in full. Tita has done a brilliant job of succinctly laying out the issues within the relationship, but I was particularly struck by this line: âDeep down, PTP executives probably foresee the inevitable demise of the MFP-led coalition.â
That is a lot of countdown clocks ahead. Hereâs hoping Move Forward has a restful weekend â theyâre going to need it.
đ°đ Hun Sen logs off
Former Facebook superfan, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, has rage-quit the platform.
âI have decided to stop using Facebook, on which I have more than 14 million followers. I have requested my assistant to delete my Facebook account immediately. And I will also inform the company to delete my name from Facebook,â he wrote in a statement to his Telegram account late last night, as per Nikkei Asia.
It follows a recommendation from the independent oversight committee at Meta, Facebookâs parent company. The group this week found a video Hun Sen posted back in January in which he denied allegations the Cambodian Peopleâs Party had bought votes in last yearâs commune elections â and supporters should beat up anyone who says they did.
Reuters reports that Facebook had flagged the video at the time as violating community rules. But, given heâs a country's Prime Minister, it was left up under a ânewsworthinessâ exemption.
âHun Sen uses social media to amplify threats against his opponents, spreading them more widely and causing more harm than he would be able to do without access to Metaâs platforms,â the committee wrote in its report, as per Al Jazeera. âHun Senâs use of the platforms to incite violence against his political opposition, taken in the context of his history, his governmentâs human rights abuses, and the upcoming election combine to require immediate action.â
The committee decision gives Meta 60 days to decide whether to suspend Hun Senâs Instagram and Facebook accounts, but he isnât waiting around to find out.
This isnât just an old man getting annoyed at the computer. Phnom Penh-based journalist Ananth Baliga notes the knock-on effect could be substantial. With Facebook as the primary means by which various ministries share information with Khmer communities, connections could be severed. Additionally, as Baliga writes, years of statements and other documents have simply disappeared:
Nikkei Asia in the above piece reports Hun Senâs Telegram channel has 855,000 subscribers. Government spokesperson Phay Siphan told the outlet that government data shows Telegram is now more popular in the country than Facebook and, interestingly, is better at Khmer translations. He also denied the video was âincitement.â
Iâm curious to see what happens here. Itâs less than a month until the bogus election and Facebook is a necessary campaign tool world over. Also, speaking from personal experience, making a big fuss about leaving a platform that youâre addicted to typically ends with eventually returning with your tail between your legs.
It has reminded me, however, of when he posted a whole bunch of terrible and odd photos from a hospital bed in Singapore back in 2017. RIP to Hun Senâs Facebook.
A quick addendum! This from AFP has just popped up as I was readying to send: âDon't be arrogant, you guys are staying overseas, you are using Facebook for communications, we could block Facebook,â Hun Sen said this morning in Pursat province, seemingly addressing Khmer living abroad. He urged attendees to download Line, TikTok, Telegram, Viber and, uh, Facebook-owned WhatsApp.
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