🇲🇲 NLD isn't going anywhere

Hello friends!

Myanmar went as expected, but what an absolute victory for photojournalism! I was glued to Frontier Myanmar’s liveblog which had some absolute stunners. 

Firstly, we’ve had our feed of the ‘it’s all gone wrong with former anointed one, Aung San Suu Kyi’ so we will not be revisiting. But find some other very interesting angles below. 

Well done to everyone who worked so hard covering the election. The combination of the pandemic and a tense press freedom situation must be a nightmare, but the country’s media community worked very hard to cover it all and, as a reader, I’m very, very grateful.

Premium readers: see you tomorrow! Everyone else: see you Saturday, I’m losing my mind over Habib Rizieq returning and ooh have I got some words about it. 

Erin Cook

No surprises in Myanmar, where the National League of Democracy has been returned to power. It was clear early on the party would secure more than the 322 seats needed to form government and the party has expanded on its famous 2015 victory. Of course, this year has a much different context to five years ago and it hardly feels as exciting. 

Concerns that the country’s COVID-19 struggles, which surged in August despite neighbouring countries chilling out, would dampen turn out appear to have been unfounded. Frontier Myanmar found long lines and engaged voters across the country. “I am afraid of COVID, but I have to turn out and vote for the sake of the country,” Daw Mya Han, in Tanintharyi Region in Myanmar’s deep south, told the publication.

Sithu Maung, 33-years-old, is one of two Muslim candidates fielded by the NLD which is two more than in 2015. Sithu Maung didn’t just win — he smashed it. He picked up over 80 percent of the vote in the central Yangon constituency, as reported by the AFP. "I'll work for people of all religions, particularly those who are discriminated against and oppressed or deprived of human rights," he told the newswire. He has not to date commented on the Rohingya crisis and noted his own struggles in obtaining proof of citizenship. Read the whole story in full, it’s very interesting. 

The 1.1 million Rohingya in refugee camps in Bangladesh were denied the opportunity to vote on Sunday, prompting criticism from the international community and cynicism from would-be voters. Nurul Amin, a 32-year-old community leader in the Kutupalang camp, spoke to Arab News: 

Military aligned opposition party Union Solidarity and Development Party is crying foul over the proceedings. “There were many contentious events during the whole voting process, whether in line with the law or not, and more facts are coming out,” USDP boss Than Htay said, as reported by Reuters. “We will continue to work according to the law to receive the result our supporters want.” (fantastic quote!) Independent observers say entry to counts were restricted at three sites but for nearly all sites visited the results were correctly tabulated, says Reuters. 

Further reading:

• Myanmar's smooth election disguises systemic failure (Nikkei Asia)

The real surprise in the election was the uneven showing of Myanmar's minority ethnic-based parties. Much attention was directed at Rakhine State, where nine townships were deprived of their representation, along with large swathes of other townships. This amounted to gerrymandering against the aspirations of the Arakan National Party, which won half of the state's seats in 2015 and was the NLD's main rival. Nevertheless, the ANP won seven state assembly seats, with the NLD picking up four, and the army's reserved seats falling from 12 to five.

Anger about the gerrymandering, which disenfranchised 1.2 million eligible voters, and the uncertain conduct of potential by-elections in the cancelled seats, will continue to fuel support for the Arakan Army insurgency, Myanmar's most deadly civil conflict, which has seen thousands of combatants killed over the past three years and more than 220,000 civilians displaced. The NLD's reward for thwarting the electoral aspirations of the ANP may turn out to be greater support for violent options against the Myanmar state.

• What to expect from Myanmar’s post-election foreign policy (The Strategist) 

The section on foreign policy in the NLD’s 2020 manifesto continues the commitments to an active and independent foreign policy and to relations with international bodies. Unlike in 2015, however, there’s no explicit mention of identifying ‘joint economic enterprises of mutual benefit’ for cooperation with other countries, or working together on regional issues.

Yet, any government taking on the challenge of leading Myanmar through its difficult transition should consider the economic and multilateral dimensions of foreign policy. Economic diplomacy will feature more in Myanmar’s 21st-century foreign policy than in the past, as the country’s trade and investment partners will link their financial interests to decisions related to expanding (or entrenching) their strategic space.