🇲🇲 Myanmar's COVID-19 disaster

'The Confederated States of Yangon'

Yangon’s usually vibrant streets have gone quiet amid strict lockdown measures (c/o very talented photographer Yoshitaka Ando)

Hello friends!

Voting is underway in the Malaysian state of Sabah, where both COVID-19 and the politicking of the peninsular have created a unique backdrop. We’ll revisit Malaysia Monday.

This weekend we need to check in on Myanmar where infections are spiralling out of control and have left Yangon, the country’s largest city, on lockdown.

See you Monday!Erin Cook

The graphs that come up at the top of the Google search results when looking up any country + COVID are fascinating. Indonesia’s steady climb, the Philippines’ jagged curve, Singapore’s sharp up and then a steady decline. Myanmar’s is a worry, particularly compared to neighbours who have either dropped dramatically or never really got there to begin with. 

Myanmar reported a new record in cases on Thursday with 1,052 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19. The death toll has risen to 150. It comes as Yangon endures additional measures, including enforced stay at home orders and strict restrictions on movement around the city. The measures have transformed the city where unclear messaging from authorities have turned communities inwards. 

Borders 

The explosion in cases has Thailand nervous after bringing its new cases down to the single digits. Patrols along the Western border between the two have stepped up with Thai authorities determined to prevent a spilling over of cases. According to this report from The Thaiger, border checkpoints this week saw a surge of Myanmar nationals attempting to cross into Thailand as part of regular trade and/or to avoid restrictions at home. The sudden tightening of the border has prompted Thailand’s Department of Disease Control to vow “tough legal action will be implemented against those found to be involved in human smuggling gangs.”

This reminds me of a previous report from our Laos correspondent on historically porous borders in the Mekong states. 

Rakhine violence

Lockdown measures are hard to obey in Rakhine State where violence has continued despite climbing numbers of cases. We’ve talked a bit in the past few months about the impact of internet throttling (for me, read the Foreign Policy piece below) but real violence is now undermining efforts in the current outbreak. Around 3,000 villages were forced to break stay at home orders, the Irrawaddy reports, as fighting broke out between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw this week.

“Yesterday, the Navy shelled almost the whole day and dropped troops on the riverbank near Gutaung village. So villagers were concerned that soldiers may enter their village and they fled,” U Aung Naing of Shwe Laung Tin village told the news site. 

Election worries

The country is meant to go back to the polls on November 8 (a date almost certainly to be drowned out by another vote just a couple days prior!) but doubts are growing. While Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy has vowed to march on to near-certain victory, the Financial Times reports increasing concerns that voters are unlikely to turn out in droves. 

“The government says it’s determined to go ahead, but it’s the virus that’s in control of the situation. Without a big drop in cases, it’s hard to see where you could hold an election where people would feel safe to go out and vote,” Myanmar-based Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group told the FT. 

In the same piece Dereck Aw, who covers Myanmar for Control Risks, notes we are likely to see NLD strengthened by the lockdown measures. Similar to complaints we saw during Singapore’s election the protocols make usual campaigning strategies more difficult or cancelled entirely for smaller and emerging parties. Still: “However, if infection rates continue to rise, especially in the commercial capital and NLD bailiwick Yangon, a public health crisis might force the NLD to postpone the election to early 2021,” 

Coronavirus cases are now rising alongside civilian casualties and displacement, and Rakhine state’s health infrastructure could easily become overwhelmed. The state government has limited access for humanitarian organizations to some conflict-affected populations since early 2019. And for more than a year, the national government has blocked high-speed internet in eight townships in Rakhine and Chin states—restricting access to information for more than 1 million people.

In response to the Rakhine outbreak, the Myanmar government has imposed strict prevention and control measures and sent doctors to Sittwe. But in the context of the ongoing conflict, the response may fall short of what is needed to avert a public health disaster.

On the night of September 3, Thar Hla* was restless, and it was not just because he was sharing a concrete floor with approximately 70 people. “After hearing loud firing, I felt like the quarantine centre wasn’t safe,” the 32-year-old told Al Jazeera by phone from his hometown in Kyauktaw in Myanmar’s western Rakhine State. “That night, no one could sleep.”

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