🇲🇲 Myawaddy throws off the junta, Thai diplomacy, airspace, come to the fore

Hello friends!

There is a LOT to catch up on in Myanmar, so today I’ve focused on two of the key stories: the Thai-Myanmar town of Myawaddy, where resistance forces have netted a major win against the junta, and the conscription drive which many believe will begin in earnest in a week or so. Devastating stuff but some beautiful reporting, so please click through these links!

See you premium readers tomorrow for a look at the rest of the Mekong,
Erin Cook

Myawaddy hits back as Thailand — and the junta — scramble

The southeast Myanmar township in Kayin State shares a border with Thailand’s Mae Sot, Tak Province, and is the centre of Myanmar coverage this week as clashes between the military and resistance forces erupt. The proximity to Thailand — and intriguing plane manifest — have revealed more to the outside world than, perhaps, the military would like.

There has been a lot of brilliant reporting over the last few days, but we’ll start with this Gwen Robinson piece for Nikkei that lays out the bones very nicely. ‘More than 600 military personnel including about 140 family members’ have surrendered in recent weeks to local resistance groups, including the powerful Karen National Union and the People’s Defence Force, she reports. KNU and the PDF have since posted snaps to social media of cadres accessing ‘light weapons and ammunition in the abandoned bases.’ One PDF commander told the Guardian he expected only 40 to 60 military troops in the area were yet to surrender. 

“We are concerned about border trade with Thailand and hope we can stabilize the situation quickly and get it moving again. ... This is part of our plan to reclaim territory controlled by the SAC and force them to return the country to the people,” a KNU spokesperson, referring to junta’s State Administrative Council, told Nikkei.  

It’s a ‘serious setback’ for the military regime, Jonathan Head writes at BBC. It’s already facing fierce resistance and has been pushed out of other border areas — Shan State along the China border and Rakhine State along the Bangladesh border (more on that below. Now the Thai border is a mess. The KNU has long been one of Myanmar’s most potent Ethnic Armed Organisation forces, but, as Head notes, Karen State became an attractive destination for dissidents fleeing the cities following the coup given its proximity to Thailand. 

Still, none of this has stopped the military from inflicting devastation on the people of Myawaddy. ‘Thousands of non-combatants have already lost their homes to the conflict in Karen, and many more are now reported to be moving towards the Thai border in anticipation of continued air strikes in the days ahead,’ Head reported over the weekend. 

Then it gets really weird. Thai officials granted permission for flights from the area to jump across the border on Sunday. Three flights carrying “special cargo” — unexplained but assumed to be cash assets of the junta — and military personnel moved between Myawaddy and Mae Sot from Sunday until yesterday. Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara said yesterday that the flights carried only documents, no illegal cash or weapons. The documents are “politically sensitive” and he doesn’t know what, exactly, they were.

“Upon considering the urgency of the situation and the possibility of an evacuation of Myanmar personnel and their families to safe areas, a decision was made at the government level to approve the request from Myanmar on humanitarian grounds,” Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, as per Straits Times. 

That irks, I’ll admit. Still, Parnpree said Thailand is readying to significantly increase its refugee intake: “We have prepared for a while and we can accommodate about 100,000 people in Thailand's safe area temporarily.” He says the border has not seen a huge exodus coming across, there has been some movement, as per AFP.

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin reckons now is a good time to open up talks with the junta, he told Reuters on Sunday. “The current regime is starting to lose some strength … but even if they are losing, they have the power, they have the weapons,” he said. “Maybe it's time to reach out and make a deal.” Thailand stands to gain the most with a stable and prosperous Myanmar, he said. 

Conscription and cannon fodder in Myanmar’s dystopic turn

It threatens to (further) destroy the country. This Nikkei Asia report notes the exodus of would-be draftees is driving up demand for foreign currency, which is further depreciating the kyat and, in turn, stressing wild inflation further. Still, Nikkei Asia reports, the conscription drive hasn’t gone full-hilt just yet — but expect it soon. After Thingyan New Year celebrations, it’s expected to kick into overdrive and villages and townships across the country report officials getting ready. 

The widely reported death of Ko Ko Latt, also known as Amanullah, at a Yangon military camp is a tragic example of the miserable reality the junta is forcing upon young people. Amanullah was a 27-year-old father of two from Taikkyi Township in the Yangon Region and was drafted on March 28. Within days, he had died in very murky circumstances. The military says he was sick before he arrived at the camp, but Muslim activists say he was killed, the Irrawaddy reports. “Up until Sunday morning he was calling villagers, asking for food without pork. Every meal the military gave him contained pork,” a family acquaintance said. 

Amanullah’s religion certainly gives pause and has sparked fears that minorities may be targeted specifically for conscription. This is clear already in Rakhine State, where the junta is waging a bloody fight against the Arakan Army. The very same military that carried out successive waves of violence and genocide against the Rohingya people is now forcing them into the military to fight for it. 

‘At present, approximately 630,000 Rohingyas remain in Rakhine State, according to the United Nations, many in the camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs), and can be pressed to serve as “cannon fodder” for the undermanned Tatmadaw, whether by negotiation or intimidation,’ writes Md. Himel Rahman for the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter. 

‘For instance, a Teknaf-based news portal reported that the Tatmadaw representatives met with Rohingya leaders in the Maungdaw District in February and offered to arm the Rohingyas against the Rakhines. The Tatmadaw has reportedly offered the Rohingyas freedom of movement in exchange for the formation of local militias to fight against the Arakan Army. In addition, the Tatmadaw has supposedly promised citizenship to the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh in exchange for their military service,’ he continued. 

This stunning BBC report talking with Rohingyas in Rakhine found that at least 100 had been drafted by the military in recent weeks. “If you refuse they have threatened to harm your family,” one draftee, a 31-year-old man with three children, recalled an internal displacement camp leader telling him.

‘Mohammed was trained for two weeks, then sent home. But after just two days he was called back, and put on a boat with 250 other soldiers and transported five hours up-river to Rathedaung, where a fierce battle with the Arakan Army was under way for control of three hilltop military bases.’ You’ve got to read the whole thing, it’s really confronting. 

It’s a particularly nasty and revolting microcosm of what is happening across the country. The junta really is struggling and it’s hardly in a good position to roll out an enormous draft process. ‘This makes systematic implementation of the law infeasible. Military officials will need to rely on entrapment, arbitrary abductions and other repressive methods to enforce mandatory conscription,’ writes Calvin San for the East Asia Forum.

It’s a deep fear for residents from Sagaing and Magway, noted resistance strongholds in the Dry Zone area of central Myanmar. Residents who once moved to Yangon and other larger cities for education and work opportunities or to escape the post-coup violence now worry they’ll be targeted for conscription if their home villages are noted during military checkpoints, this excellent Frontier Myanmar piece reports. 

“I heard about forced abductions following the conscription law, and it felt too risky to stay,” a 28-year-old from Sagaing’s Khin-U Township told Frontier Myanmar. He gave up a decent job at a water purification factory in February. “I have no intention of joining their military. Now I’m just working on my parents’ farm, so we lost my additional income. I didn’t want to leave my job, because it was really difficult to find, but I had no choice.”Myan