🇲🇲 Two days of talks fail to bring peace to Myanmar

Hello friends!

After that promise of returning to a regular schedule last week, I had an honest-to-God, actual medical emergency. I’ve never had that before, what a sad indictment of the ageing process. 

I am, like so, so many in and around the region, completely fed-up with the inaction on Myanmar. Thailand’s two-day talk festival has done nothing to alleviate this and while I think next year will be one of supreme importance and deep movement for Myanmar, that will be only thanks to the people of Myanmar itself. 

Shan’t be committing to any set schedule for the weeks ahead. This is a very sloppy time of year in Australia and the days melt easily. Instead, I plan to be in inboxes three times in the next fortnight or so. The next one will be after Christmas so Merry Christmas to all who celebrate, and happy public holidays to all who don’t but get to snag a day off regardless. 

Thanks!
Erin Cook

All talk, no action in Bangkok

A big week for Thailand last week after it arranged two days of talks about Myanmar in the capital on Thursday and Friday.

It’s “a high-stakes initiative to break the diplomatic deadlock over Myanmar's spiralling crisis,” Gwen Robinson wrote for Nikkei ahead of the two days. She pointed out a few crucial things. Firstly, that by having Thailand itself host the Thursday event it broke the enduring convention of centring Asean as the vehicle of choice for such talks. Friday was hosted by Laos (whose foreign ministry mandarins must surely be lamenting being sucked into a last-minute show ahead of Malaysia’s chair in the new year). 

As always, Robinson did not come empty-handed. Diplomats across the region aren’t too pleased with Thailand’s showboating but acknowledge there aren’t many options left. “Let's face it. The tail is wagging the dog here, and I think there's a sense of collective ennui and exasperation over the whole Myanmar issue,” one regional diplomat told her. 

Day 1 might tell us more about how Thailand is tracking, she notes. In an effort not to offend other Asean member states, Thailand invited only the junta’s foreign minister Than Swe and no other representative. That may keep Asean at bay (maybe??) but civil society groups in Myanmar and abroad as well as Western diplomats are wondering just how much can be achieved without the involvement of the National Unity Government and/or the various wildly powerful armed ethnic groups. 

So no NUG, but here’s Thaksin Shinawatra. The former prime minister, and father to current PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is feeling himself in the region again after Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim appointed him an informal adviser for Malaysia’s year heading Asean. WHY would a Malaysian prime minister need a foreign adviser who is bonkers controversial? Thaksin is balanced out by Singapore’s former foreign minister George Yeo and Indonesia’s former FM Retno Marsudi.

(An interesting thing about the Channel News Asia link above is that it includes a photo from 2012 featuring Thaksin, Anwar and Timor-Leste’s Jose Ramos-Horta. This has not been a decade of regeneration for the region.)

“Thaksin is influential in Thailand, is accepted by the US, and has a close relationship with China. This positions him as a bridge for Asean (to foster stronger ties),” Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said, as per Bernama and via the Straits Times. He’s also known to be close with junta boss Min Aung Hlaing, who is alleged to have given the Thai ex-PM land in Yangon. Well, with friends like these, Anwar! 

Anyway, back in Bangkok on Thursday Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa called his day a hit. Playing host to Myanmar and its neighbours, Laos, China, India and Bangladesh, he pointed out that it was the first time that everyone had come together to discuss where to next for Myanmar. The chat was “held in a friendly and cordial atmosphere, with a frank and constructive exchange of views, in areas related to border security and combatting transnational crime, particularly illicit drugs and online scams,” the Thai foreign ministry said, as per the Associated Press.

Much has been made of Maris’ focus on the promised elections in comments after the fact. Than Swe’s government’s alleged ‘roadmap’ towards ??? not sure, will be bolstered by these goddamned elections. If I remember correctly, the junta promised them within six months of the Feb. 2021 coup and they are now slated for some stage next year. 

Things are moving, Maris told media. At this stage plans “include conducting population census, registration of political parties, of which there are currently 53,” Bloomberg reported. Very important to note that most non-junta-aligned parties have long signalled their intentions to boycott elections and the census has been a source of terrible anxiety for months. “They also expressed their intention to invite election observers from abroad, such as from neighbouring countries,” he added. Election observers from China and Laos! Sure, why not. 

On Friday, Asean sat down for a “frank” but ultimately fruitless round of talks. Thai Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura called the meeting “cordial and very frank,” as per this VOA piece, but there’s hardly any juice here at all. Only Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore sent foreign ministers, with other member states sending off high-level ministerial staff. 

I think it’s worth reflecting for a moment here on Indonesia’s new foreign minister, Sugiono, who did not attend. His predecessor Retno Marsudi (and her predecessor Marty Natalegawa, in another era of Asean and Myanmar) has been very vocal in supporting peace for Myanmar and the bloc as the avenue in which to do it. While his reason for not attending is not very clear, the response has been swift from observers keen to see Indonesia do more. Foreign affairs commentator Dewi Fortuna Anwar called it disappointing, pointing at Indonesia’s ‘de facto leader’ status. 

That just feels like a bunch of nothing, then. I get so torn up about all of this. What does Asean do? Can’t do nothing or you’re letting Myanmar down, also can’t keep having these talkfests that go nowhere and only undermine your own reputation. 

I checked in on Myanmar Now to see how that outlet is covering the talks. I think it’s probably telling that the only post they have is via the AFP — a handy overview, but nothing new for those who subscribe — and it’s surrounded by day-to-day reporting of heavy junta losses and the ongoing forced conscription efforts. 

Asean as a bloc, and certainly meetings between neighbouring nation-states, are valuable here. But this is a good reminder that what gets discussed in the boardrooms of Bangkok is a world away from the villages and borderlands of Myanmar.