🇲🇲 New UN report puts Thai banking under the lens

Hello friends!

A few weeks ago I split the Myanmar newsletter into two with a focus on Myanmar from the inside and then Myanmar from the outside. I really liked how that worked out so I’m going to stick with that — and good timing too since we have a lot of China to get through.

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See you for part two next week,
Erin Cook

🇹🇭 UN’s Tom Andrews takes aim at banking

Singapore is out and Thailand is in as the State Administration Council’s preferred destination for banking, a report from UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, found last month. The report found international sanctions have slowed down the junta’s ability to move money around and buy arms — a claim the junta has long downplayed, Reuters reports. 

Singaporean business ties to the junta were an immediate focus for the people’s resistance movement in the early days of the coup which aimed to pile pressure on private companies to step back. Last year, following a similar report from the UN, the government launched an investigation that eventually saw a crackdown and a major reduction in military exports to Myanmar, Nikkei Asia reports. 

This most recent report hopes it will exert the same pressure on Bangkok. “If the government of Thailand were to respond to this information as the government of Singapore did one year ago, the SAC's ability to attack the people of Myanmar would be significantly impaired,” the report noted. 

Interestingly, banks and governments elsewhere were largely responsive to enquiries but Thailand was a notable unreturned call. Nikkei Asia reports both the enormous Siam Commercial Bank and the Thai government itself were not interested in participating. 

Looking more broadly at Thai-Myanmar relations for Fulcrum, Paul Chambers and Kridsana Chotisut write that the economic futures of both countries are ‘intricately linked.’ The pair breaks down business links across the border that account for both massive trade and some very dodgy wheeling and dealing, including involvement in some of the notorious scam centres. 

These links are historical and tied up in the military, making things difficult for the Thai civilian government. ‘One of the most difficult challenges facing Thailand’s Myanmar policy is that recent Thai military officers (and traditional politicians) have had affable relations with Myanmar state officials making it hard to deal with anti-state actors. The Thai army especially prefers to collaborate with the Myanmar army: senior officers from the two countries meet regularly in the promotion of defence diplomacy.’ 

This is, of course, long an issue in relations but given the shift in power and, crucially, the return of a meddling Thaksin Shinawatra, things are strained. ‘According to a source close to the Thai military, senior military officials were infuriated because the government had them out of the loop about Thaksin’s peace forays,’ Chambers and Chotisut write. 

It’s not just big-money collaboration. The Thai Ministry of Labour last week flagged the imminent closure of all centres issuing Certificates of Identification across the country. These certificates have allowed people from Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos to move around legally and safely in Thailand after receiving a job offer. The ministry cited a request from Myanmar as behind the move, Myanmar Now reports. 

Whether it’s a short-term move or a permanent shift in policy remains to be seen. Moe Kyaw, the associate secretary of the Thailand-based Yaung Chi Oo Workers Association, told Myanmar Now that if the ‘pink card’ job permit is reformed to allow workers to move more freely then it could be a good move, but we’ll see! 

🇨🇳 A couple of visits to Beijing raise eyebrows, arms concerns

Who needs Bangkok when you’ve got Beijing? The Irrawaddy reports this week that arms purchases are set to arrive in Myanmar from China within a month, citing sources in the capital and along the border. “The [regime’s] shopping list is long and huge arms caches are on the way to Myanmar,” the sources told the outlet. 

The report comes as the junta’s number two in command, Soe Win, visits China following a June trip by former president Thein Sein. Leong Wai Kit at Channel News Asia has an intriguing explainer here that looks at the various rumours and which is most likely. There are a lot of interesting bits in here, but the line that a source said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ‘had asked Thein Sein to persuade Min Aung Hlaing to hand over power and form an interim government to pave the way for elections’ sure got me. 

Similarly, curious to hear that Operation 1027 had derailed plans earlier in the year: “Beijing intended to engage deputy army chief Soe Win and would have invited him to China in the first quarter of the year. But back then, (military chief) Min Aung Hlaing had trust issues with Soe Win — that disrupted the engagement effort and China’s invitation. Meanwhile, via the diplomatic track (of) engagement, Thein Sein was able to make the trip to Beijing on Jun 28,” a source told CNA. 

The Irrawaddy’s position is that the visit for Soe Win is timed with a resurgence in fighting in Shan State, which borders China, and is squarely about arms procurement. Sure, he’s ostensibly there for the Green Development Forum at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, but I did like Leong Wai Kit’s line about China’s use of multilaterals to engage the Myanmar junta without too much fuss. 

Very intriguing report here from Nikkei Asia about a digital crackdown on dissent using Chinese tech. Research and digital rights group Justice For Myanmar alleged Chinese company Geedge Networks and state-owned China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation are behind the junta’s online surveillance operations. The group warns that the junta is building “a digital dictatorship” that monitors and censors widely in an effort to shut down dissent. 

VPNs have long been in the crosshairs of the regime and this piece follows an interesting thread on how vital the tools are for businesses still trying to operate in the country. Great read from Thompson Chau, as usual!  

🇺🇸 A caucus and a potential pivot

Washington DC isn’t one to be left out, it seems. The Diplomat cites a source with knowledge of the events who says Daniel Kritenbrink, the US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (that’s a long business card), met with Myanmar Navy commander Kyaw Lin Zaw while in Hanoi on June 21 and 22. That visit was meant to be a post-Putin ‘hey, Vietnam, remember us’ but this does seem to be far juicier. The US State Department would not confirm or deny the visit but noted the US would continue “to deploy all diplomatic tools” to pressure the junta, the Irrawaddy reports. 

Meanwhile, Congress launched the Burma Caucus at the end of last month. The Caucus aims to “bolster congressional support for the Burmese people in their fight for democracy and human rights against the brutal military junta,” founders Betty McCollum and Bill Huizenga said in a statement. This is all a bit deep-DC for my tastes, but the Stimson Centre has a great overview here.