🇹🇭Moving forward without Move Forward

Hello friends!

One of my biggest regrets about this unexpected sick leave is I haven’t managed to stay as much on top of Thailand as I would like for these pages.

Today is fairly long, but really only the bones of where we’re at as of today. Next week, I’ve got a deeper look at how the coalitions in parliament have shaped up and how the country is responding. Or, just as likely, it could go absolutely tits up in the next few days.

And finally, not to be a huge softie, but thank you for your support! This is one of the biggest developments this newsletter has covered in seven years (!!!!) and is very complicated. I really appreciate everyone who reads along as we try to untangle it together.

See you Monday,

Erin Cook

Pheu Thai moves forwards

Move Forward is out and Pheu Thai is on top. As of this week, at least. The elder party will nominate Srettha Thavisin for prime minister (when? We’ll get to that) and Move Forward will find itself on the backbenches despite being the largest outright party. Parliamentary politics! 

In a surprise to no one, Article 112, the lese majeste law, was cited as a key reason. Despite teaming up with conservative parties Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana, Democrat, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation, PT has delicately tried to convince voters it will oversee a return to democratic norms. 

Hmm, that stinks, says Move Forward: “Article 112 is just an excuse, because the old establishment does not want Move Forward to be the government. It shows that the highest power does not belong to the people,” Secretary-General Chaithawat Tulathon said Wednesday, as per Nikkei.

Thai PBS writes that ‘a few months ago, the Pheu Thai-Move Forward bond looked unbreakable,’ which I disagree with somewhat. Trouble was always on the horizon but it did snap much sooner and more dramatically than I expected. It’s all just rumours still, but the outlet notes very optimistic conspiracy theories that this might all just be a game and Move Forward will rejoin the fold after the senate backs Srettha. 

I am not confident of that idea. The red-yellow status quo has worked out relatively well for Pheu Thai in the last two decades and the rise of Move Forward is both an ally and a threat. 

Thai Enquirer’s comment writers are not happy. In a piece by Volthai, surely a pseudonym with the references packed in, the ‘Faustian pact’ made by the party is slammed as ‘marred by poor calculations and a sense of impatience.’ The party ignored other avenues, including simply waiting it out for the senate term to expire, in favour of ‘one that would see their leader come back home quicker, one that would allow them to be the main players in government.’ 

‘And now, as the story unfurls its bitter and unanticipated chapters, the Pheu Thai’s haste and hubris might force onto the Thai people the prospect of Anutin Charnvirakul or Prawit Wongsuwan as their prime minister,’ Volthai writes. 

It’s not so much the content of this commentary that I find particularly compelling - a lot of what is written here is found elsewhere and online. It’s the palpable anger. PT is dismissed as having set back the pro-democracy movement and selling out true believers. While there’s still much to be seen, this is an important shift.

Small scale protests have hit Bangkok and other cities in recent weeks, but not yet the enormous upheaval many expect. What strikes the most here, as a foreign nerd, is the gap between Move Forward supporters and the party machine. Move Forward, and Future Forward before it, have repeatedly said they see the movement as very much in its nascent days. I suspect that Pita facing a prime minister vote was more surprising to many cadres than him being removed from his seat by the courts. This is a long term project.

But for voters, there’s been enough waiting. Millions voted for Move Forward to lead and the high politics that will see old faces return in government seems a step too far. Of course, that’s based on vibes and vibes alone but since 2014 we’ve seen a new generation come of age, a new King rise and a devastating pandemic. This is a new Thailand! 

So what next?

A slated vote for PM seemed unlikely to go earlier this week and was formally ditched as parliament met this morning. The Constitutional Court ordered the delay last night, saying deliberations about Pita’s status continue, AP reports. Constitutional court stuff is way beyond me, but Patpicha Tanakasempipat and Pathom Sangwongwanich at Bloomberg dig into it here.

The delay keeps Srettha out, for now, and also gives more time to shore up the senate. Conversely, it also gives more time for these fragile-seeming coalitions to splinter. And for angry Thais to make their stance well known. It all seems a bit Sisyphusean at times. 

I feel somewhat more comfortable chatting about Thaksin Shinawatra, though. The former prime minister has spent 15 years in self-exile after fleeing a litany of charges in 2008. Daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, herself now a Pheu Thai heavy-ish hitter, announced he intends to return next week. But, a lot has changed since Paetongtarn posted the travel plans online at the end of last month.

The Nation yesterday reported Thaksin will likely reschedule his flight until everything is ‘more stable.’ The ex-PM was expected to be arrested at the airport in Bangkok and imprisoned, but is believed by some to have a royal pardon deal in the works. 

This about-face is very curious to me. Thaksin’s era is very much before my time so I am not confident to put my views in print just yet. I really hope someone much smarter than me is spending the weekend thinking about it and writing it up!