Hello friends,

Before we jump into what is a very sad update this week, I’d like to note another sad story.

Yesterday, a Malaysian court ordered a stay on the deportation of 1,086 Myanmar nationals. Just hours later, the people were handed over to Myanmar authorities. None were refugees or asylum-seekers, the immigration agency says, but UNHCR isn’t convinced. 

Truly revolting and I’ll be very interested in seeing the fall-out here. Who decided to go ahead? And why?

There’s fantastic analysis coming out this week, please take a look at the list at the end!

See you this weekend for a non-COVID non-coup read.

Erin Cook

Protest deaths

Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing was only 19-years-old when she was shot in the head at a protest in the capital Nay Pyi Taw early into the protest movement. She died Friday, sparking an outpouring of grief and mourning in the city and an escalation in tensions. 

The weekend saw the most violent days yet with at least two young people killed in Mandalay on Saturday. One of the killed was 16-years-old.  A doctor told Al Jazeera the day looked like a ‘war zone.’

“The crowd listened and made way for the police and water cannon truck. While the crowd was making way for those cars, the water cannon truck stopped and blocked the way. Then another water cannon truck came from 35th Street and, without warning, it started to attack the protesters,” she told AJ. She also suspects wounds she treated were caused by live ammunition. 

If you haven’t yet, subscribe to Frontier Myanmar and follow along with the live blog. The blog updates with newly published analysis, which is priceless, as well as the latest in statements and breaking news from the Civil Disobedience Movement. 

What’s Asean to do?

I started drafting this and then it changed again! This is moving unusually quick for Asean so we’ll certainly revisit next week. 

But for now! While many of our member states (those who are trying to avoid their own bloc response, I imagine) have been happy to call the coup ‘internal matters’, Indonesia and Malaysia are very keen to get involved and, reportedly, get started on a special Asean meet. 

Indonesia has been particularly interested in taking the lead here. In an exclusive, Reuters quotes two unnamed senior foreign affairs ministry officials saying a ‘diplomatically-led solution had to focus on preventing bloodshed and helping the military to honour its commitment to hold a new election and hand power to the winner.’

Wait, says the protest movement back in Myanmar. We had elections back in November, why do we need to do that again? Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi was reportedly planning to visit Myanmar this week — but that plan had been shelved as I began writing this.

Even just the conversation is a remarkable moment in Asean’s history. For years, it’s looked as though the bloc’s purpose was turning towards fostering economic cooperation and growth within the region. Is this a new stage? 

We’ll be back for you, Asean. 

Singapore stops to think

Singapore in particular has had an interesting discussion about the role of foreign businesses in supporting the coup. Singapore based TRD has been identified as the manufacturer of anti-drone guns used by police and the military to down drones during civil disobedience movement demonstrations and other protests.

VICE got in touch with TRD who said, yes, they are our anti-drone guns but the business relationship with law enforcement in Myanmar was frozen following the coup. 

“Given the current situation, we have no plans to supply our anti-drone guns to Myanmar for now, until a lawful society is re-established. We will not be selling to the military and will be reviewing future sales accordingly,” TRD CEO Sam Ong told VICE via email.  

The VICE piece must be read in full. Beyond the TRD debacle, Singapore and Myanmar have a long history. And did Lee Kuan Yew leave a quote for everything? He’s the original ‘there’s a Trump tweet for that.’ 

Singapore has become a target for some in the movement who hope Singapore’s leadership can help influence the outcome, but many are pessimistic the Singaporean government will wade in too deeply. Small-scale demonstrations at the Singaporean embassy and calls to boycott iconic Singaporean brands have made the city-state prominent in the movement.

This strikes me as extraordinarily savvy. Singaporean netizens reacted en masse, potentially pushing the discourse along further than an often-guarded government would like to be. 

Beyond business relations, the diaspora community in Singapore is large with an estimated 200,000 nationals living, working and studying in the city. It’s hard to watch what’s happening back home, a handful of nationals tell Straits Times. Donating money and working hard online to get the word out amid internet blocks in Myanmar is helping some feel they’re doing their part.

Elsewhere, the Monetary Authority of Singapore yesterday said no ‘significant funds’ from either individuals or companies from Myanmar were found in the city’s commercial banks. "MAS expects financial institutions to remain vigilant to any transactions that could pose risks to the institution, including dealings with companies and individuals subject to financial sanctions by foreign jurisdictions," an MAS statement said, as reported by Channel News Asia. 

Is this something?

There’s something interesting here with the reckoning some are having with the Rohingya crisis. However, I have no idea how widespread it is or how influential it may be. 

Watch this

Reading list:

Keep the Streets: Coup, Crisis, and Capital in Myanmar (Spectre)

There is a lot to say about the composition question. In brief, resistance now appears less tied to a singular kind of subject than, say, 2007 (the sangha) or 1988 (students, in theory, though that uprising was actually far less student-driven than the official story suggests). This time, public sector workers stepped up early on, and garment workers were crucial in building up some of the first mass protests. Ethnic minority groups have been particularly visible both in Yangon and in minority areas themselves (outside of Myanmar’s major lowland cities). LGBTQ groups have also been really active in the protests. Self-consciously farmer-led protests have emerged, too. And while monks have been active, they have not had a leading role per se.

A lot of discussion has centered on the role of Myanmar’s millennials and Gen Z as being especially active, not least with quite a lot of witty, meme-oriented protest signs and slogans. Arguably, this resistance is the first in Myanmar that owes to a generation now raised with and on the internet – Facebook above all, in Myanmar – as broad access to the internet only really came about in the post-2011 period. Amid so much interest in the sort of networked, online-oriented repertoires of protest, however, I do worry that the crucial role of workers – from medical workers to the public sector more broadly, as well as garment workers, certainly – risks getting overshadowed.

Why the coup will fail, and what the Tatmadaw can do about it (Frontier Myanmar)

What the military didn’t count on was the public response to the coup. Millions of people across the country have joined protests, including students, doctors, civil servants and even some of the police tasked with cracking down on demonstrations. Lawyers and analysts have exposed the lack of legal basis for the detention and removal of President U Win Myint, undermining the military’s argument that the seizure of power was constitutional. 

Comical charges against State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint for waving at supporters and importing walkie talkies have further angered the public. Rather than work with the military, many of those who have been most critical of the NLD – including activists, other political parties, business elites and intellectuals – have come out clearly against the coup, and in support of the country-wide Civil Disobedience Movement.

Myanmar's coup creates a minefield for business (Nikkei Asia) 

Still, with Myanmar's military back in charge, "doing business in the country will mean walking in a reputational minefield," says Romain Caillaud, principal of Tokyo-based advisory firm, SIPA Partners and a longtime Myanmar expert. "Investors will find themselves between a rock and a hard place. The military government will demand a business-as-usual approach, and that companies pressure employees and suppliers to accept the new political order."

This Is Not the Time for Foreign Governments to Stay ‘Neutral’ in Myanmar (The Diplomat) 

The millions of people protesting in over 300 towns and cities represent an extremely diverse array of demographics. They range from die-hard NLD supporters, focused on recognition of the 2020 election results, to members of the country’s more than 100 “ethnic nationalities,” who are calling for end to military violence in their areas and the establishment of a federal system of government. They include tech-savvy Gen Z activists waving banners reading “you messed with the wrong generation,” who are determined to not experience the kind of military rule they grew up hearing about. Meanwhile, minority protestors have flaunted their identities proudly, representing groups of “Hindus,” “Muslims,” “Spirit Mediums,” “Chinese descendants,” and, most strikingly, “Rohingya.”

China Is the Myanmar Coup’s ‘Biggest Loser’ (The Atlantic)

Yet this narrative, although enticingly straightforward in a country where little is, is a dramatic oversimplification that ignores numerous factors: the coup’s destabilizing effects, including on major Chinese-backed projects; the Burmese military’s long-held wariness of China, including the junta leader’s personal distrust; and perhaps most important, the surprisingly friendly relationship that the National League for Democracy, Suu Kyi’s party, had cultivated with Beijing. A sharp rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in the days since the military’s takeover has made quick work of years of confidence building between Suu Kyi, a once-vaunted prodemocracy icon, and her authoritarian neighbor. The undercurrents of Sinophobia held at bay as she touted China as an ally have come flooding back with her detention by the military.

Technology and solidarity won’t save Myanmar’s protesters (Rest of World)

Still, despite the outpouring of dissent and the expressions of solidarity across social media around the world, this tech-enabled civil disobedience movement is at an enormous disadvantage against a state that holds the power to disrupt and manipulate the infrastructure of protest. Their experience echoes that of political opposition groups, from Hong Kong to India, that have found that encrypted messaging systems, offline networks, and global attention only afford limited protection.

“Governments have significant advantages in the tools they can use,” said Raman Jit Singh Chima, Asia-Pacific policy director at Access Now, a global digital rights campaign group. “You have to remember that no tech is hack-proof, no mechanism is completely secure. Everything has insecurity built in. Any mobilization or campaigning or expression of your democratic rights should go with the assumption that technology … can be insecure.”