🇹🇭 Senate case set to stress coalition

Hello friends!

There is so much fascinating reporting out there about Vietnam’s commemoration of the fall of Saigon that I’ll tie it all together and share more widely on Friday. 

But for now, there’s plenty in the rest of the Mekong states to keep us occupied!

See you tomorrow,

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Anthrax outbreak in northeast

Thailand has recorded at least four anthrax cases after an outbreak in Mukdahan province, in the northeast of the country. One person has died while the other three have been hospitalised. Hundreds of others are under strict monitoring amid fears the outbreak could expand, the Bangkok Post reports. 

Public health and agriculture officials believe the outbreak is tied back to an event in which cattle were slaughtered and the meat shared around the community last month. But no one is exactly sure just yet. 

Thought that Senate election mess was behind us? Never! The Department of Special Investigation is on the backfoot, denying it had ‘intimidated or coerced unsuccessful senatorial candidates in Amnat Charoen to confess to peer voting collusion’ in last year’s elections. That’s a direct quote from the Nation because I don’t want to misstep here. 

The denials come after Amnat Charoen Governor Narong Thepsen made a complaint to the Permanent Secretary of the Interior Ministry that DSI officials, who did not identify themselves, allegedly intimidated two candidates in his province. He also alleges CCTV in the home of one candidate had been tampered with. 

Separately, Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong confirmed DSI officers had been in the province investigating claims of collusion. DSI maintains it went to the province at the request of the witnesses who said they didn’t have the funding to make it to the capital, the Bangkok Post reports. 

This plays straight into the coalition-splitting we’re seeing between the dominant Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai Party. More to come! 

Vietnam is snapping at the heels of Thailand’s economy. The neighbouring manufacturing giant is set to take Thailand’s spot as the second-largest economy in the region, according to a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The Nation reports this is expected in a decade or so, off the back of Vietnam’s ambitious economic planning and the booming manufacturing sector (let’s see how those tariffs go first, I say). 

That won’t help the economic anxiety. Elsewhere, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, an influential business lobby group, has revised down its expected growth rate for the year from 2.4% to 2.9% down to just 2.0% and 2.2% this year, Reuters reports. The group cites the anticipated lost export revenue with these dang tariffs. It’s way more pessimistic than the Finance Ministry, which is still anticipating 3% growth. 

Here’s an interesting one from survey body National Institute of Development Administration. In late April, it conducted a survey among residents of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat — the so-called ‘restive’ Deep South provinces — about their views on the security situation. It comes after an uptick in violence this year, but before the May 2 attacks, the Nation reports.

It found 33.45% of respondents believe the situation in the region is as bad as ever, while 20.36% believe it’s as good as ever. Interestingly, 14.64% think it has deteriorated a little, while 10% think it has deteriorated a whole lot. 

Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told the country on Tuesday that the government is planning its response. He stressed that while police and other security agencies have been involved in the provinces, it’s proactive and protective. “In reality, proactive operations involve tightening security at checkpoints, responding swiftly to potential threats, and deploying personnel to areas of concern to safeguard both Buddhist and Muslim communities,” he said. 

This sounds like we might be on the edge of a busy few weeks and months to come here. 

🇱🇦 Don’t risk the Thai beef, says officials

Laos has seen the anthrax news across the border and said shut it down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ordered a temporary halt to meat imports from Thailand on Monday, as well as heightened monitoring across the country, the Nation reports. Authorities have stressed there has been no reported human-to-human transmission yet and a vaccine program is underway. 

Very odd one this week from Bokeo province, near the Thai border, Radio Free Asia reports. Gunmen attacked Lao military personnel, killing at least five in a very opaque incident including seizures of Lao military bases. Reports have noted Lao authorities last month seized more than 20 million methamphetamine pills in the province in what RFA calls one of the largest hauls in Laos’ history. 

An unidentified Thai official told the outlet the perpetrators could be connected to the Wa, an ethnic group in Myanmar deeply involved in the drug trade. Have you read Narcotopia yet?

Elsewhere, Nick Freeman takes to Fulcrum to dig into what March’s central committee directive to reform state agencies as “lean, streamlined, efficient, and robust” actually means. It’s bloated on a level that does stun for a moment: “The primary driver for these reforms is the need for greater governmental efficiency. In 2024, there were just under 170,000 civil servants, equivalent to almost 2.2 per cent of the population, with an aggregate salary bill equivalent to 6.3 per cent of Laos’ GDP. This is more than double the 2.7 per cent of GDP spent on health in Laos (the lowest proportion in Southeast Asia) and the 1.2 per cent of GDP spent on education,” Freeman writes. 

🇰🇭 Cambodia flexes in the region

Cambodia has been out and about in the neighbourhood these last few weeks. It’s interesting to see! 

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra came to town at the end of April for a very productive visit, the Nation reports. Along with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, the pair signed a whole lot of MoUs and talked graciously about the bilateral relationship and how to deepen it. Thailand highlighted Cambodian assistance in shutting down the region’s scam centres, which seems premature to me but could be a light touch pressure. 

Hey, hey, hey. Can’t be too worried about the China-backed Ream Naval Base now that Japan has swung by! Two Japanese minesweepers became the first foreign vessels to dock at the base, the South China Morning Post reported last month. It’s very transparent, but the message from Phnom Penh is: this is ours and we’ll say who can come. Okay, then! 

Senate President Hun Sen is in Jakarta this week visiting officials, including Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. Jakarta had been deeply involved in bringing peace to Cambodia and much of Prabowo’s comments reflect that, but he also stressed the partnership in bringing stability to the region now: “I am confident that His Excellency’s views will enrich our collective efforts to maintain peace, stability and prosperity in the Southeast Asian region,” he said, as reported by the Jakarta Post.

Hun Sen also swung by the Asean Secretariat and met with other Indonesian lawmakers, all of which is not helping the impression that he’s still running the show. But whatever!!  

And finally, an update on the Mother Nature group. Last year, five activists from the Mother Nature Cambodia environmental group were found guilty of charges relating to plotting against the government and lese majeste. Last week, the courts denied bail with four set to stay in prison for six years and a fifth activist for eight years, via Mongabay.