🇵🇭 Marcos mends ties with the US

Hello friends!

I’ve been thinking a lot about Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr these last few weeks.

A year ago, I was in Manila feeling queasy. Talking with friends in pink shirts and experts who didn’t wear their affiliation quite on their sleeve but warning a Marcos presidency was such an unknown they were preparing for the worst.

Tomorrow is a year since more than 31 million Filipinos voted for Bongbong Marcos Jr to be president. It’s been a weird year since. Marcos Jr has benefited from the outrageousness of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and his impressively foul mouth.

The global confusion that the majority of the Philippines would welcome the scion of a man ousted in one of the most compelling pro-democracy movements of the 20th century has faded. Marcos Jr hasn’t called the Pope, the American president or anyone else a son of a whore. There aren’t death squads cruising through Tondo and gunning down poor people. Marcos Jr hasn’t had to post ‘proof of life’ photos of himself to social media because he’s been avoiding work for so long. 

Duterte reset the bar for interest in a Filipino leader — somewhere between the floor and the seventh circle of hell. The year since the election has been coloured with extraordinary cost-of-living pressures paired with the economic recovery as the pandemic winds down. Marcos has appeared happy to leave his cabinet to deal with those challenges while he takes on something more existential: repairing relations with the US that had frayed under Duterte and seizing the role as an American bulwark against China in Asia-Pacific. 

This is what I’ve been thinking about. Marcos has gone above and beyond, really. Eggheads in Washington probably can’t believe their luck. Below is a broad look at Marcos’ embrace and, though we’re not at the technical one-year point, the way he has deftly built a reputation as the outward-looking president at a time when most countries are turning inward. (Actually, as I write that, is this maybe just a return to the mid-century foreign policy like my own country has embraced through AUKUS? Who can say!)

This is by no means comprehensive and I am a very lazy South China Sea watcher so certainly offer no new insights there. But the broader strokes are compelling.

See you tomorrow for our look at the Mekong region!Erin Cook

Marcos wants YOU, Uncle Sam

It’s a sharp 180 from Candidate-Marcos, as New York Times corro Sui-Lee Wee notes. On the trail, he warned would-be voters that “if you let the US come in, you make China your enemy.” She writes that Marcos has “emerged as one of the Philippines’ most transformative foreign policy presidents” and with less than a year under his belt but a very thick passport, I agree. 

Sui-Lee Wee’s analysis marked Marcos Jr’s visit to the White House to meet with US President Joe Biden last week. There’s a “deep friendship” between the two countries, Biden said. “The United States also remains ironclad in our commitment to the defence of the Philippines, including in the South China Sea, and we will continue to support the Philippines military modernisation,” he said as reported by the Associated Press.

That’s music to Marcos’ ears. “During this visit, we will reaffirm our commitment to fostering our long-standing alliance as an instrument of peace and as catalyst of development in the Asia Pacific region, and for that matter for the rest of the world,” he told media, as per Reuters, shortly before heading to Washington.  

In practice, this means bigger bases and more Americans in the Philippines. A visit to Manila by Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and a US delegation saw the two countries announce a faster timeline for full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which deepens defence ties. That means $82 million in funding to develop five sites already under the EDCA and the expansion of four others in “strategic areas of the country,” a statement announced, as per AP. 

The balancing act between China and the US is one in which Southeast Asian countries are, largely, experts but for the Philippines, this is a particularly challenging time. 

Muddying the waters in the South China Sea

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo met with his China counterpart, Qin Gang, April 22. The meet followed two months of increasing tiffs in the Philippines’ waters of the South China Sea. Still, “We are willing to work together with Philippines to implement the consensus of both leaders, keep China-Philippine ties in the right direction, safeguard the overall situation of our bilateral relationship, work together to continue our tradition of friendship, deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, and properly resolve our differences in the spirit of credibility, consultation, and dialogue,” Qin told reporters, as per the AP.  

There’s the press statements and then there’s the reality. Just a day after Qin met with President Marcos, BBC reporters on board two Philippine Coast Guard ships watched as a Chinese Coast Guard blocked a Filipino patrol vessel and narrowly avoided a collision. The incident blocked a Filipino patrol and supply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, or Ayungin as it's called locally, a key area part of the UNCLOS case in 2016. 

Sabre-rattling in the South China Sea was a point of discussion between Marcos and Biden. Post-visit, the Pentagon released US-Philippine defence cooperation guidelines which include a commitment towards sharing real-time intelligence in the waters. “The two leaders underscored their shared desire to deepen bilateral planning and operational cooperation including an increased tempo of combined maritime activities, such as joint patrols, to support the Philippines' lawful exercise of its rights in the South China Sea,” a Pentagon readout said, as reported by Nikkei Asia. 

Just up the road, Taiwan

The bases would be “useful” for the Philippines if conflict were to erupt across the Taiwan Strait, Marcos said from Washington. While Marcos did not comment directly on Taiwan, he did note that any conflict would be a serious concern for Manila as “then the safety of our Filipino nationals in Taiwan becomes of primordial importance,” he said, as per Reuters. 

Filipinos in Taiwan found themselves thrust into the middle of this last month after Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian appeared to threaten their safety if Manila would not “unequivocally oppose” Taiwanese independence.

“The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the US access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 (overseas Filipino workers, or OFWs),” Huang said, as per the Inquirer. The comments enraged Filipinos and seemingly stumped Marcos who said he thought something must have been lost in translation. 

In a characteristically unsubtle op-ed, Global Times warned Manila of “wishful thinking” in its attempt to balance Chinese and American relationships: “But will the Philippines be able to stop the US when it breaks its word and uses these military bases to interfere in the Taiwan question? The answer is apparently “No”, given the unequal relationship and capability between the US and the Philippines as well as the US' domineering behaviour, according to Chen,” the op-ed wrote, paraphrasing Chen Xiangmiao, director of the world navy research centre at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. 

No smooth sailing at home

While Marcos has been feted in Washington, back in Manila his embrace of the US is raising more questions. Senator Imee Marcos — and older sister of the President — isn’t, at least publicly, convinced tying Filipino defence back up with the US is a smart move. She questioned Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo during a Senate Committee hearing, asking if the Philippines would be wise to store US weaponry in-country during a potential conflict. Manalo pointed back to the guidelines set in the EDCA. 

Not to lean too much on Sui-Lee Wee this morning, but I am constantly reminded of her piece with Camille Elemia in which they spoke with Manuel Mamba, the governor of Cagayan, shortly after Austin’s visit in Feb. The mayor had not been notified prior to the announcement of plans to establish a new base in the province at the north of the country and a short flight from Taiwan. “China is not our enemy. The people of Cagayan will get caught in the middle … why should we fight their battles?” he said, adding that he was concerned the area could be a target in a nuclear war. 

Now what?

This is still at the big talk, lots of photos stage. But as I was drafting this another group of Chinese vessels have been spotted heading towards an Asean-India naval exercise so who knows where the next few weeks will take us. 

Reading list

• Marcos is gaining fans, but the president's sister is not one (Asia Nikkei)

• As US and Philippine defense ties grow, China warns over Taiwan tensions (CNN)

• Why China Should Learn To Live With U.S.-Philippine EDCA (Fulcrum)