🇹🇭 Let's go Thailand!

Or: get across the first vote in years

March 22, 2019

Hello friends,

Here are your must reads ahead of Sunday’s vote here in Thailand!

Before we crack in I just want to say a few things. With the exception of some Khao Sod English in the next par, this is all foreign media (with Thai reporting). I think the curbing of media freedoms has been super well-reported, ironically, so we won’t worry about rehashing that just know that I know. Secondly, there’s a lot of compare/contrast here with the Indonesian elections. It’s very much on my mind, of course, and when it comes to Thai politics I feel like a real blow-in so the contextualising helps (me)!

This one doesn’t quite fit what I’m trying to do here, but it’s been an invaluable resource. Khao Sod English has brought together every party, who the major players are and what they stand for. This on how the actual polls will go is also interesting, mostly because I just learnt alcohol sales will be stopped from 6 pm the night before. Where I’m from that would get you turfed from government.

This is a one-off for all subscribers to Dari Mulut ke Mulut, but if you’d like to get on the regular round-up of the region and the Sunday special from the hustings here in Bangkok, sign up! $6 a month or $60 for the year here:

Stay safe out there Thailand!Erin Cook

I am LIVING for these BBC explainer-type pieces. What’s Brexit? They’ve got you. What’s at stake in Thailand? Boy, do they got you. I really like that these pieces are superb hand references for someone like myself — that is, more than a headline reader but certainly not an expert — and for people like my sisters, who will inevitable come Sunday ask me ‘wait, why are you in Bangkok?’ and I can just drop that URL.

This is THE read to get across exactly what is happening and who the players are. The next reads are all in-depth looks at specific people, regions or issues so this forms a great base for expansion. It makes a really important point which the more specific reads have glossed over somewhat. Polling shows this election is likely to have a very high turn-out, so while the game has been stacked for one side it is hotly contested.

Less officially though, the junta had two objectives; to secure the first royal succession in 70 years, which, after the death of in 2016, it did; and to cripple the political movement loyal to ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which had won every election since 2001 … The election taking place this Sunday in Thailand has to be understood within the context of this last objective.

Let’s mix up our media! Is it just me or has NPR’s Asia coverage gotten really great in recent months? This radio piece, as the name suggests, focuses on what critics of the junta have to say. It speaks with Umesh Pendey whose removal from the Bangkok Post last year prompted speculation, and a fierce rebuttal, of a media crackdown on those seen to be too anti-junta.

It also speaks with Thitinan Pongsudhirak who has got to be Asean’s hardest working academic this week. He very clearly lays out how and why the junta introduced constitutional reforms to ensure that even if the Thaksin-aligned parties were to win the majority, as they have for nearly two decades, it would not be able to secure government.

(Umesh) Pandey is the former editor of the Bangkok Post, forced out last year, he says, for being too critical of the military. His party was dissolved by the constitutional court earlier this month after nominating a former princess as its candidate for prime minister. And he's worried another new party, Future Forward, could be next, a party led by a charismatic 40-year-old who is no friend of the military and popular with young voters in particular.

“It seems they have the election in their pocket,” a voter told the LA Times of Palang Pracharat, the new junta-aligned party. I’m struck by the muteness in Bangkok just a few days out, compared to Jakarta where we still have weeks. Sure, there’s banners but nothing like cousin Indonesia. Certainly nothing to denote the importance of the vote itself. Which probably should not have surprised me, as this piece makes the solid point that with reform on reform and rights strip upon rights strip is there even a way for a non-junta leadership?

But not everyone in Thailand thinks that’s a bad thing. A PP volunteer spoke to the paper saying she had been motivated to volunteer for the first time ever. “The country is peaceful. When we had protests in the middle of Bangkok in 2010, I had to close my shop for one month. Now my business is booming.” Still, Future Forward’s Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit gets his love.

“This election will be utterly unfair — and free only up to a point — in view of the junta’s likely manipulation and coercion to get outcomes it wants,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

The AP’s lede on this isn’t hedging. This is exactly what it wants you to know: ‘Prayuth Chan-ocha became prime minister in a very Thai way: He led a military coup.’ I think this is a very, very good piece outlining why he has rebranded himself as a ‘typical baby-kissing politician’ but that should not be believed. At all. Even close.

I think it’s good to take a closer look at the man who has dominated Thai politics since 2014. Reading this has made me realise I don’t actually know all that much about him. Not like we know the biographies of Jokowi, or Duterte or Aung San Suu Kyi, for instance. Prayuth’s climb to power — through the military, of course, where he was highly educated — has been quieter than that of his counterparts by design. Unlike the 2006 coup, which returned to democracy about a year later, under Prayuth’s leadership it’s been unprecedented struggle to get to Sunday. Elections have been announced and then delayed every year since the coup.

Prayuth, who was unanimously elected prime minister by his appointed legislature, has a famously quick temper and can bristle at anyone who questions him. Couple that with a sometimes off-color sense of humor and it can lead to verbal attacks, gaffes or just plain bizarre moments.

When it comes to military dictatorships, Thailand is the last army standing. I didn’t know this until I read this one from the Atlantic. As it points out, it wasn’t alone during the coup itself but since then brothers in arms like Fiji have gone democratic (needs a big asterisk there, but we don’t do the Pacific here so we’ll skim over it). This is an interesting piece looking at how the military’s role in politics has become so ingrained — a point many watchers have made in recent weeks as it became apparent we’d be unlikely to see any demonstrations.

The place of the monarchy is integral to this. That the monarch has typically given his a-ok to coups of the past ensures its success. It also looks at how the rewriting of the constitution has strangled civilian-led parties and, like most of these pieces, outlines how and why we’re unlikely to see real change this weekend. I also really like this story because it mentions my pet peeve: why has Thailand’s rep not really suffered globally?

Data suggest that the likelihood of a coup correlates with the number of past coups; since 1932, Thailand has experienced an average of one every seven years. And for Thai generals, coup-making is a low-risk activity; no coup leader has ever been prosecuted. (Amnesty provisions for coup-makers are firmly written into each constitution.)

Decades from now Bill Clinton will be far more famous for saying “It’s the economy, stupid” (sorry, Carville) than for any stains on a dress. We’re seeing it in Indonesia and we’re seeing it in my home Australia and we’ll see it everywhere. We are not really seeing it here in Thailand though which makes for an odd outlier since it is what so many vox pops show is a vote winner (or loser). As most of our reads here have shown us the machinations of the election and the two camps which are duking it out receive far more coverage for the existential fight than their policy. Thailand has one of the worst income inequalities — not just in the region, but in the world.

According to Credit Suisse, last year Thailand’s 1 percent owned a staggering 67 percent of the country’s wealth. Anywhere else this would be THE election issue, but Thailand is fighting a different fight. I really love this read from OZY which links the horrific figure to the outcry last year over the alleged corruption of watch-loving Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and the infamous 2017 hit and run from Red Bull heir Vorayuth Yoovidhya.

But at the same time, the country experienced a huge amount of economic growth. Thailand’s gross domestic product went from $88.4 billion in 1990 to more than $455 billion in 2017, largely due to its export-focused economy. Those gains weren’t evenly spread, though. The main driver of inequality in Thailand, according to Pasuk Phongpaichit of Chulalongkorn University, is that income flows mostly to urban dwellers, leaving those in the informal sector and farming behind.

Northern Thailand guest houses must love when elections happen for the same reason I do — journalists flock there! The Isaan region is ‘Pheu Thai's spiritual home’, Kate Mayberry writes for Al Jazeera. This is where Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister, Yingluck, hail from and has remained a stronghold for aligned parties. It might not be so easy this time around though. After the most recent coup many of the big names fled abroad while “some villages, seen as overly sympathetic to the cause, were required to undergo ‘attitude adjustment’."

Polling in Isaan shows 45 percent leaning towards PT but Future Forward are making gains, a point reiterated by friend-of-the-letter Aaron Connelly’s dispatch suggesting younger voters going for certifiable babe Thanatorn’s party. This piece links in nicely with the previous OZY read. Northern Thailand is among the most impoverished and voters there are noting economic policy is a major incentive in supporting the usual suspects there.

"I like their economic policies," said Bangon Khamsuk, 43, adding she was happy to finally be voting again. "When they were in power they made the economy better." She said she was hoping the pro-democracy parties would win, despite a new constitution that stacks the odds in favour of the military. "I hope we will see a miracle."

Let’s talk policy! VICE took a look at the major parties and where they stand on the policy areas most important to young Thai voters. Freedom of speech is the first win of the rank. For young voters it’s a major concern and here the parties split fairly evenly along junta and non-junta supporting lines. It’s particularly important to Pheu Thai Party, who have said in the past that freedom of expression is the most vital value. Education reform — which is sorely needed given the data provided here by VICE — is something all parties are on board with. Minimum wage increases are widely supported also, but I do have to wonder if some of these more closer junta-aligned parties (particularly those with whom junta members are in) should maybe have done a bit more if they’re so about it now.

I like the way the gender and LGBTQ equality section is written. I think it’s really easy to see Thailand as this equal paradise because of smart branding and the horrible job so many neighbours do. But that’s not really the right story. Civil unions will probably go through, but there are gaps to be filled and not all parties are super on board. The environment is also a very hot topic given how recently much of the country has been blanketed in smog.

Although there are 32 parties officially listed on the ballot, we looked at the eight largest and most popular parties making headlines to help guide young Thai voters in making their decision.

And finally. Thaksin Shinawatra isn’t here, but he looms large. Famously, he (and sister Yingluck) are in exile and are barred from participating at all in the election. His Pheu Thai Party has been in trouble repeatedly for being seen to be too close, like when cadres get busted for being in the same foreign country as Thaksin at the same time. This Bloomberg piece takes on two of the most fascinating aspects of the elections — what happens next will be more hectic than what happens this weekend and the endurance of Thaksin. Given this is Bloomberg, the second is the bigger focus. A wide welfare program introduced by the junta is aimed at neutralising the ‘Thaksin for the poor’ reputation and one Northern voter interviewed is certainly considering switching sides of the cash handouts.

The prospect of a messy result risks more of the same discord that’s led to bloody protests in Bangkok followed by bouts of army rule over the past 15 years. The political battles have hampered economic policymaking and eroded Thailand’s position as a top manufacturing destination in Southeast Asia.

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