🇹🇱 Jose Ramos-Horta swings by Beijing, Hanoi

Hello my premium reader friends!

Before we crack into Timor-Leste and Indonesia today, just wanted to quickly clarify those ‘upgrade now’ buttons you are saying in free/unpaywalled posts. If you can see this, you’re definitely on the premium list already and apologies for the confusion. I’ll try to think up a way of making it clearer in the future.

See you tomorrow for a look at the Philippines where, once again, everything is happening all at once.

Erin Cook

🇹🇱 Hitting the road

Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta has been on the road lately, visiting Beijing and Hanoi. 

His trip to China is the first visit by a Timorese leader since China and Timor established diplomatic relations in 2002, Global Times reported. Beijing really rolled out the red carpet for him with meetings between Ramos-Horta and President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, the National People's Congress Standing Committee chairman. Global Times really beat the drum in this piece noting the ongoing ‘oh God, China is getting a foothold in the Pacific’ fears: ‘The China visit is no doubt a slap in the face against the West's hyping of the so-called China threat,’ Chen Hong, executive director of the Asia Pacific Studies Center at East China Normal University, told the GT. 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Ramos-Horta says dismissively in this exclusive with the South China Morning Post. “If China is to deliver to us in five years free of extreme poverty, free of child malnutrition, stunting, and resolve the challenges of fresh clean water sanitation, I will be eternally, eternally grateful because I don’t care about the big power rivalries – I care about the simple people,” he said when questioned about great power rivalry and Timor’s place in it. 

The whole conversation is very interesting and worth reading in full. He touches on the South China Sea and dodges the ‘respect international law’ line that most leaders trot out. 

From Beijing, Ramos-Horta popped over to Hanoi for a four-day official visit. There he met with President To Lam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man. He also visited the Ho Chi Minh mausoleum and paid tribute to the war dead. It was Ramos-Horta’s third visit to the country. 

Interestingly, Ramos-Horta is (or at least implies he is) looking to Vietnam as a model for development: ‘For his part, Ramos-Horta expressed admiration for the revolutionary cause and nation building, and development efforts by Vietnamese leaders and people, and described Vietnam as a model of development. He affirmed Timor-Leste's appreciation of and desire to further strengthen the friendly relations with Vietnam,’ Vietnam Plus reported.  

🇮🇩 Is this a new era in Russo-Indonesia relations?

Hello, Moscow! President-to-be (and current Defence Minister) Prabowo Subianto swung by the Russian capital to meet with President Vladimir Putin last week following his Olympic jaunt in Paris and quick trips to Turkey and Serbia. “We consider Russia as a great friend. I would like to continue to maintain and enhance this relationship. In our history we remember Russia has always helped us in many aspects when we were in difficulties,” he said in a statement, as reported by Reuters. 

He’s looking for a helping hand in developing Indonesia’s nuclear program and normalisation of grain trade after upsets stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. “In the field of nuclear energy, we have discussed with your institutions, with Rosatom, the possibility of cooperating in this field,” he said, referring to Russia’s atomic energy corporation. Nikkei Asia notes this is Prabowo’s fourth visit to Moscow in as many years. I’m very curious about Russian-Indonesian relations under the new administration. Prabowo copped a lot of heat for comments he made about the invasion of Ukraine at last year’s Shangri La Dialogue and he never really walked that back or even addressed concerns, so I’ll be watching closely. 

Call the trips an indication of a “free and active foreign policy” the Jakarta Post reports after chatting with a few analysts. 

“Politically speaking, it is a bit too early to predict his alignment. It seems, however, that he wants to visit as many countries with various alignments as possible. It’s interesting because the visits have been very pragmatic in nature,” Ahmad Rizky M. Umar, an international relations expert at the University of Queensland said. 

Take a look at history, Dafri Agussalim from Gadjah Mada University added. “Prabowo’s overseas trips could also rub some countries the wrong way, but it could be his strategy to increase Indonesia’s bargaining power. After all, we’ve yet to see any benefits from the US. It’s reminiscent of our previous strategies. When Indonesia wanted to liberate West Papua from the Netherlands and did not receive help from the US, it went to the Soviet Union, for example. I think Prabowo will most likely follow this type of diplomacy.”

Changes to abortion laws fall short, say activists

One step forward, one step backward on abortion after a new decree from President Jokowi extended the ceiling on abortion for rape survivors from six weeks to 14 weeks — but only if the police approve it. 

Bloomberg reports the move to relax the timeline comes after advocates and women’s health groups lobbied the government after a woman was sentenced to prison in 2018 for her abortion after being raped by her brother. A higher court later overturned the sentence. 

But it’s not an outright win for activists in Indonesia, where abortion remains criminalised and unregulated. Reuters reports the police are now the only ‘authority allowed to give the go-ahead for abortions for rape victims,’ dropping a previous allowance for psychologists and doctors. 

“In general women are still scared because of the culture, norms and also religion. These values hinder women finding access when they have the right to terminate a pregnancy. This regulation means that victims only have one choice. They have to go to the police. So, it's very limiting,” Olin Monteiro of the Jakarta Feminist group, told the wire. 

Butt out(ish)

Big reforms are coming for the cigarette industry and smokers, the government says. A new regulation has lifted the minimum age of buying cigarettes from 18 to 21 and advertising rules will be tightened, Benar reports. Indonesia walks a very tightrope on cigarette regulation — smoking remains wildly common (and a significant public health issue) but the industry itself employs millions of Indonesians and contributes to local economies. So how to balance that? 

These new regulations can hardly be accused of overreach and come nowhere near restrictions we see elsewhere in the region, let alone in Australia or New Zealand which are super tough. Some critics say enforcement will be a key issue — especially for a new regulation banning smoking near schools and playgrounds — but the health ministry says hold tight, we’ll get some clarity soon. 

The golden visa could be the golden goose

Indonesia launched its Golden Visa program last week after touting it for a year or so. The program would grant five or 10-year visas to foreigners who invest a truly absurd amount of money into the country. So far, visas have been granted to OpenAI CEO Samuel Altman and Shin Tae-yong, a Korean national who is on the Indonesian national soccer team’s coaching staff, Nikkei Asia reports. 

I’m very curious about these! There have been mixed results from similar programs the world over but the government is confident: immigration boss Silmy Karim says nearly 300 people have been granted the visas in a pilot program that has attracted $123 million in investment.