It's a big year ahead

Hello friends!

Today is the last day of the 25 percent off FOREVER promo. Loads of new readers have joined us during the Philippines election over the last month, but there’s much more going on in the region. 

This newsletter sends two open reads a week checking in on emerging stories (or things I’ve become a little obsessive about) with an in-depth regional look on Fridays for premium readers. 

The rest of this year is going to be enormous in the region. The world has moved on from Myanmar. The region is deeply invested in returning stability and has a huge role in doing so via Asean, a bloc the military junta is ambivalent about. Elsewhere, elections, food and energy crises and the reemerging from the pandemic dominate. 

Readers under-30 from Asean states and Timor-Leste and any Myanmar nationals are welcome to free premium subscriptions. Just hit that reply and let me know a little about yourself — and encourage your friends to get their sub too!

Thanks,Erin Cook

I had a late night last night obsessively checking the results of my own election back home only to be woken up at the crack of dawn by a floating rally for Cambodia’s People Party ahead of elections here next weekend. It’s a big world and Southeast Asia is a vital part of it. 

Here’s what’s coming up:

Indonesia heads to the polls for its enormous national, provincial and local elections in February 2024. But, with so much at stake and President Joko Widodo barred for a third term, we’ll see the informal race begin this year. Who in the cabinet, gubernatorial positions and business community will throw their hat in? 

The political chaos in Malaysia will continue this year in the lead up to the next general election, which must be held by September next year. The consolidation of power and the strength of the reputation rehabilitation of Najib Razak mean we could see polls much sooner. The voting age has been officially lowered to 18 and young Malaysians are desperate to have their voices heard. Will the young be changemakers or is it business as usual?

Bongbong Marcos Jr and Sara Duterte will kick off their six-year term at the end of June in the Philippines. What does a Marcos Jr presidency look like? No one knows, because he never said a word. Is it a return to some of the Philippines’ darkest days and how will it influence other ousted families in the region?

Vietnam is back open for business (and pleasure). After long lockdowns in 2021 hit the country’s manufacturing sector hard, an end to the tightest of restrictions and welcoming back of tourists and business interests will reinvigorate the economy. Still, the government is hard at work on anti-corruption measures. What — or who — is next? 

In year two of the coup in Myanmar, the world has moved on. But the region hasn’t. Asean will continue to deliberate on the response to the crisis while the people of Myanmar fight hard for their freedoms. Is it stagnating, or is there an end in sight?

It’s been characteristically quiet in Laos during the pandemic, but the country hasn’t dodged the fuel and food shortages plaguing the world. In the region’s poorest country these stakes are much higher. But in the secretive state, will the world ever know the actual situation? 

There are six months left with Cambodia as the chair of Asean and it does often appear that Prime Minister Hun Sen can’t wait to hand over the baton to Indonesia. Still, with increasing pressure from the bloc and Hun Sen’s interest in Myanmar, what comes next?

Singapore is number two for Googling ‘recession’, second only to the much, much larger US. The city-state has caught the fear but is it justified? And what would a recession look like there?

It’s kept it close to the chest during the pandemic, but Brunei is highly-vaccinated and ready to move on. The economy is energy, energy, energy. Does the energy wars abroad offer new opportunities for the quiet Sultanate? 

Timor-Leste has welcomed back Jose Ramos-Horta as president with open arms. He has a big job ahead. The young country, both technically and demographically, is yet to move on from the heady post-independence days with the country still run by the old guard. Is rejuvenation on the cards? And will they finally get that seat at the Asean table?

Today, Thailand's capital Bangkok will vote for its governor for the first time since the 2014 coup. It’s being read as the tea leaves for the next election, to be held in less than a year and in which Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha can’t recontest (without a little legislative jiggling, that is). Still, he won’t say if he’ll stick out the last few months and the politicking is well underway. What’s in store for the next chapter of Thailand’s always fascinating, if not occasionally dark, politics?