🇵🇭 Is this regional flashpoint about to bang?

Hello friends!

We’ve been talking about the scuffles between the Philippines and China in the West Philippine Sea (I like how Filipino media says that I’m going to try it out) for months — years! — now. But this week feels like something different. 

Some great reporting on the Sunday confrontation and the developments since here from Reuters and the Inquirer especially. Will be sticking close to these two over the coming days as the Philippines prepares its investigation and China continues to tell everyone to get over it. 

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Erin Cook

A sharp escalation in the ongoing spats between China and the Philippines on Sunday. Reuters has very succinctly described what feels like a mess in the Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratlys, so let’s quote fully from the wire: “The Philippines has sent supplies to troops stationed on a rusted World War Two-era transport ship used as an outpost on the shoal, prompting China's coastguard to repeatedly deploy vessels to block the resupply missions.”

Come Sunday, China’s coastguard reported a “slight collision” between its vessels and those of the Philippines, claiming it was “lawfully” attempting to block a Filipino vessel from delivering “illegal construction materials” to the site, also care of Reuters’ excellent reporting. 

Bullshit, says Manila. What China did in its attempt to block the Filipinos was “dangerous” and “in violation of Philippine sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction,” according to a Task Force for the West Philippine Sea statement received by the wire. 

An unnamed Filipino official told the Associated Press that no casualties had been reported while damage to the vessels was being assessed. 

It isn’t just that this feels like an egregious overreach by the Chinese Coast Guard, it’s that it is the latest in months of scuffles with each one slightly higher in stakes and drama. The response from Manila has been swift, as it has been from the Americans so expect this just to get bigger. 

It’s still early days, but here’s where we’re at as of Tuesday morning: 

President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr convened a high-level meeting of the Task Force on Monday at the palace, vowing a quick investigation and signalling the severity of the matter. 

“The Philippine government views the latest aggression by China as a blatant violation of international law. China has no legal right or authority to conduct law enforcement operations in our territorial waters. We are taking this incident seriously at the highest level of government,” Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. told media after the meeting as per the PhilStar.

“The President is taking this very, very seriously. The highest levels of government are giving serious weight to this incident, given the false narrative of China, given the more incredulous and aggressive behaviour they display and given that we cannot tolerate this kind of action,” he added. 

Navy chief Vice Admiral Toribio Adaci Jr. shared ‘video clips of two incidents of Chinese dangerous maneuver,’ PhilStar reports. He also noted one Philippine Coast Guard vessel sustained damage to the stern. 

The investigation into this incident is expected to be completed within five days. 

Elsewhere yesterday, the Department of Foreign Affairs tried to haul in Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian for a chat, according to the Inquirer. Unfortunately, he is out of town. No further information seems available on what he can be up to but you can almost hear the eyes rolling in DFA from here. 

US Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson issued a statement on Sunday reiterating American support and dropping a few keywords that could hint at the stakes: “The United States condemns the People’s Republic of China’s latest disruption of a legal Philippine resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal [the Filipino term for the Second Thomas Shoal], putting the lives of Filipino service members at risk. We stand with our friends, partners, and allies in protecting Philippine sovereignty and in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific.” 

Carlson’s comments are joined here via Rappler with others in the diplomat community, including from the Japanese embassy in Manila which said it “strongly opposes any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion.” 

They’re all “disregarding the facts,” China’s foreign ministry said in its own statement yesterday, as reported by Reuters. US comments on the debacle are “in violation of international law, groundlessly attacking and accusing China's legitimate rights and law enforcement actions,” foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters.  

Here’s where things get very, very tricky. Let’s let RAND analyst Derek Grossman say what I’m too scared to: 

The US has been very open with its security pact with the Philippines — a treaty that obliges the US to come help out Filipino forces if things go pear-shaped out in the waters. 

“We also reaffirm that an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence commitments,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last year on the anniversary of the UNCLOS ruling, as per the AP.

Where that line is, I don’t know. But China’s coast guard seems intent on finding it in recent months. 

For his part, President Marcos spent the early months of his presidency walking a very delicate tightrope resetting relations with both Washington and Beijing after six bonkers years of predecessor Rodrigo Duterte. He had seemed quite successful (depending on your view of things!) in charming Beijing with infrastructure and business deal talks, but those largely fell to the side amid US military expansion in the archipelago. 

I don’t want to delve into the much wider geopolitics of it all — I don’t know a danged thing about the Middle East or Russia — and this is a flashpoint that has stood on its own for so long. But you do have to wonder if maybe this is an ideal time for China to ‘claim back’ its own neighbourhood while the Americans are spread so thin.