🇲🇲 Is this a coup?

Hello friends!

If you’re like me, there was a point during the week when you picked up Twitter and went ‘wait what is happening?’

I’m so impressed that despite it all Reuters continues to do a remarkable job on reporting Myanmar to the rest of the world. As such, this short email about the timeline this week which has brought us to Saturday and the edge of our collective seat relies heavily upon the wire. 

Presumably, we’ll be back at some stage next week to catch up on what happens next but I’m hoping it will be more about the country’s vaccine drive and less about possible mayhem.

Stay safe out thereErin Cook

The dust never settled in Myanmar following November’s election which returned the National League of Democracy in an even larger win than the historic vote of 2015. 

With the new parliament set to sit for the first time in the coming weeks, challenges from the military continue. And holy smokes did it escalate this week. 

On Tuesday, Military spokesman Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun set off a flurry of coup rumours and heightened anxiety during a press conference. “We will take action according to the constitution and existing laws if they don’t resolve the issue,” he said, referring to the election commission, as reported by Reuters. 

The Tatmadaw’s claims revolve around alleged discrepancies in voter lists. 

Come Thursday, the election commission confirmed the case has no legs. “In this election, weaknesses and errors in voters lists cannot cause voting fraud,” the commission said in a massive report posted to Facebook, again reported by Reuters. There were no errors large enough to cause concern over the legitimacy of the NLD win, the commission says. 

By Friday, the refusal from the military to rule out the prospect of a coup or other means in response to the disproven stolen election narrative was in overdrive. 

“The coup rhetoric is not merely a bluff or empty threat,” Political analyst Soe Myint Aung told AFP. “It is likely the military will take some action unless the (election commission) and the government redress the election-related grievances.”

Reports of police moving to secure government buildings in Yangon and Naypyidaw in anticipation of something happening took over social media yesterday, as did photos of military vehicles on the move in both cities. 

Meanwhile, embassies and the United Nations have issued statements calling for calm and a plea to “adhere to democratic norms.” (democratic norms has become quite the buzzword for the West since 2016, but is it really the best rebuke for a country with a political history like Myanmar?). 

This fantastic Nikkei Asia piece looks at the devolution of the military-civilian relationship in parliament over recent years, particularly the 2019 attempt by the NLD to reform the constitution. It also quotes an anonymous source alleging that communications between Aung San Suu Kyi and Tatmadaw General Min Aung Hlaing completely ceased back in 2018. 

All of this is developing quickly, but I’ll leave us with a great tweet from Thant Myint-U:

Political Ghosts Come Back to Haunt Myanmar (The Irrawaddy)