🇮🇩 Is a second son a step too far in Jokowi's dynasty ambitions?

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An unusually unwieldy Indonesia this week and thought she deserved her own newsletter, so a special Wednesday edition! 

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Now, where to begin?

Erin Cook

In Jakarta gubernatorial, Kaesang edges closer to eligibility

“One can't choose who their father or mother is. If I could choose, I would want to be born as the son of the President,” said Vice President Ma’ruf Amin at an Indonesia Ulema Council (MUI) event in Bangka Belitung over the weekend, as reported by the Jakarta Post. It was an ‘off the cuff’ remark, the paper notes, but did it make me laugh alright. 

The talk came a day after the Supreme Court ruled a revision to the election rules that stipulate a would-be governor and/or vice governor of Jakarta must be 30 years of age by nomination time. Let’s make that deadline inauguration instead, the court ruled Thursday. President Joko Widodo’s second son, Kaesang Pangarep turns 30 on Christmas Day — a month after the election is held. The petition was filed by the teeny-tiny Garuda Party, which was part of the winning presidential ticket’s coalition.

I’m a little shocked by this, I’ll admit. Kaesang’s political ambitions have never been quite as transparent as those of his brother, the incoming vice president Gibran Rakabuming Raka, but when he was named chair of Partai Solidaritas Indonesia (just two days after joining it last September) talk about a potential run in Depok, a major satellite city to Jakarta, began immediately. The possibility of a Jakarta run has been widely discussed but dismissed given it would require that election regulation change and, after last year’s mess with the Constitutional Court and big bro, it seemed egregious. Jokes on me!

But nothing is certain yet. Bloomberg reports that legal observers argue that, given the nomination stage is underway, the change in laws cannot be applied retroactively. “So the Supreme Court’s decision should be applied prospectively for future regional elections, not this year,” Titi Anggraini, from the Association for Elections and Democracy, told Bloomberg. That makes sense, but let’s wait and see what the election commission (KPU) decides. The body is yet to make a statement one way or the other.

Kaesang and the PSI have not said a peep yet, while others, including Gibran and Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra party, are referring questioning media back to the nascent party. 

Even the most vocal critics of President Jokowi’s transparent dynasty-building seem stunned. “In plain sight, the Supreme Court's verdict is indeed part of the Jokowi family's political pragmatism negotiated with the winner of the 2024 presidential election to carry Kaesang Pangarep in Jakarta,” observer Jannus TH Siahaan told Kompas over the weekend, with a nod to president-elect Prabowo. 

Meanwhile, a group of lawyers from the Democratic and Constitutional Awareness Movement (Gradasi), have referred three Supreme Court justices to the ethics board. The group says that the justices made their decision just three days after the petition was made, suggesting political interference. “It took only three days to [conclude deliberations], while past cases usually took at least six months to complete. It’s suspicious that the process was rushed,” Abdul Hakim of Gradasi told reporters. 

I’m desperate to see what happens here. Wiser heads tell me that the degree of institutional compromise under Jokowi — and particularly when it comes to his family — is such that we ought not to be surprised when he gets his way with little effort. But, it wouldn’t be an Indonesian election season without more twists. I will note one thread of thought I’ve seen many of my friends mull over in recent days. Could this be the mouse that sunk the boat for Jokowi’s dynasty building? If Kaesang does run — in an electorate that Prabowo-Gibran only squeaked by former governor Anies Baswedan with a shockingly slim .60% — could it backfire, seen as just a step too far? 

Shock capital resignations raise eyebrows

Jakarta? Jokowi’s got bigger problems in Nusantara! The President headed to East Kalimantan to check on his pet project, the new capital, after the shock resignation Monday of two top officials overseeing construction. Bambang Susantono and deputy Dhony Rahajoe both stood down with both keeping mum on why, so far. 

It’s a shocker for Jokowi who has struggled to bag investment despite spruiking Nusantara around the globe for years. “These resignations will make people question the project. The question is how to convince investors that there is no problem,” Arya Fernandes at CSIS told Reuters.

Relax, Jokowi reassured the country (and those would-be investors!) from Balikpapan, about two hours from the site, yesterday. The city is on track and it’s going to be green and pristine: “The dream city of the future... is a… smart city, a creative city, which is liveable,” he said, as reported by Straits Times.  

Hold on! We got word from Dhony Rahajoe late Tuesday night (Canberra time). “This resignation is my responsibility to the public due to my limitations as the deputy head of the Authority, having been unable to contribute significantly to Nusantara, in line with the spirit and objectives of building a new history and civilisation,” he said in a message to Antara earlier yesterday, as reported by the Jakarta Globe. A new civilisation! That is a toughie, I’ll give him that. 

Tap out, Tapera

Nobody likes Tapera. The program, introduced in 2020 but revised in May, requires all workers in Indonesia, including freelancers and foreigners working there for more than six months, to contribute 3% of their monthly income to a public housing fund. Of that, 0.5% will be paid for by companies. (Thank you to Bloomberg for the concise explanation). The plan is so unpopular it’s done the near unthinkable — gotten employer associations and the unions on the same side. 

The Indonesian Employers Association is eyeing a judicial review, chairperson Shinta Kamdani said, while the unions are going to do what they do best. “Our action will be massive because this is the first time that labour unions and employers have the same stance,” Elly Rosita, the president of the Indonesian Confederation of Labor Unions told Bloomberg. 

Workers and labour groups are planning a march on the Presidential Palace tomorrow to flag their distaste. Said Iqbal, president of the Indonesian Confederation of Trade Unions (KSPI), told Tempo that the policy will see the government abandon its responsibility for housing in national and regional budgets. “Another problem is that Tapera funds are prone to corruption and the disbursement of the funds is unclear and full of complexities,” he added. 

Economics think-tank Celios isn’t on board either. A recent report found Indonesia could lose nearly half a million jobs due to higher costs to support Tapera. “This shows that the Tapera policy has a negative impact on employment because companies will consume and invest less. We are aware that [this policy] will slightly increase the net state revenue by Rp 20 billion [approximately $1.2 million], but these gains are still extremely small compared to the economic losses in other sectors,” Celios’s executive director Bhima Yudhistira said, as reported by the Jakarta Globe. 

Jokowi’s own ministers don’t like it! Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno thinks a blanket plan like this is a shocker: “Not all policies can be applied to every industry. We have to assess which industries can and cannot [implement the program],” he said, as reported by the Jakarta Post. “Some companies are well-prepared because their businesses generate a lot of cash. However, others face challenges, particularly those heavily reliant on labour. We need to strike a balance here.” 

I’ve never seen anything this uniformly hated before. Unity in Hating Tapera? 

Prabowo fronts SLD, pledges support for two-state solution

President-elect Prabowo Subianto is no stranger to the Shangri-La Dialogue audience, but this year erred from controversy. The US-backed peace plan proposed by Israel is an “important right step,” he said, as reported by Nikkei Asia. “Although we have to further study the details of this proposal put forward and announced [by U.S. President Joe Biden] ... we do view this proposal as an important right step in the direction that we have to go,” he said during a special address at the Singapore event over the weekend.

The big headline is he’s keen for Indonesia to send a “significant” amount of peacekeepers once a ceasefire has taken hold if needed, as well as assist in evacuating injured civilians. He also voiced his support for the two-state solution, which he calls the “only real solution” for the region. 

Prabowo walks a very neutral line here, more so than many other political leaders in Indonesia and certainly more so than his soon-to-be counterpart, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. I think that’s very interesting but not exactly sure why. It seems at odds with much of the rest of the country.

Elsewhere, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who has been a hard-swinger in support of Palestine, has told an audience at Yogyakarta’s Gadjah Mada University that the Ministry has no intention of normalising relations with Israel. This has been an on-going conversation in Indonesia as the country looks to join the OECD, which would require normalisation. Hell of a time to argue that to the electorate and Bu Retno isn’t that interested in going to the mat for it. 

She also noted support for Palestine is enshrined in the 1945 Constitution, flagging that a dramatic shift in policy could not happen. Not that a visit to the Constitutional Court is a tough one for this incoming government. 

Thanks for the support, here’s a concession

Religious groups will now be permitted to manage mining concessions that have been revoked from companies, after a puzzling law change. President Jokowi signed a decree enabling the move last week ‘as a gesture of appreciation for the contribution made by religious groups to Indonesia’s independence struggle, said Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia,’ Benar News reported Monday. 

“Religious organizations do not have the capacity for exploration and exploitation. I am sure they also do not have the funds for mining investment,” Fahmy Radhi, an energy economist at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, told the outlet. 

“This policy is a bold step and an important breakthrough to expand the use of natural resources controlled by the state for the direct benefit of the people,” Yahya Cholil Staquf, Nahdlatul Ulama’s general chairman, said in a statement on Monday. 

This one is a genuine puzzler for me because like, why? Policy analyst Trubus Rahadiansyah told Benar that it’s all about thanking Jokowi’s religious backers and I cannot wait to read more.