🇹🇭 Everything turns orange

Hello friends!

I knew I couldn’t make it to Bangkok for the election (sitting on the regret list right behind Kuala Lumpur in 2018, thanks) but booking a looooong flight back to Canberra was a big mistake. Thankfully, that gave me plenty of time to read everything I could get my hands on. 

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Thank you so much for your support over this mini-project within Dari Mulut ke Mulut! It’s always nice to end something like this on a more optimistic note than usual. 

See you!Erin Cook

You’d have been hard-pressed to miss that one

It’s Move Forward by a mile. Polling had been looking good for the Future Forward successor, but the party came through harder than anyone — probably including the leadership! — expected, including carrying all but one constituency in Bangkok. 

Now it gets tricky. A coalition of opposition parties led by Move Forward are (so far) getting along nicely, but will need to win over some of the 250 establishment-appointed senators. They’ve got 60 days before a new government is announced. 

Before we crack into the parts I’ve found particularly compelling, take a look at this one from Lynn Sasinpong for Thai Enquirer. Enjoy this moment while Thailand can!

A rare moment like this must be celebrated: “As we put our backs into it and tread on, I will remember this moment as one where I, as a Thai citizen, am proud of how far we’ve come.” 

Move Forward and Pita’s push

In recent weeks, Move Forward consistently chased Pheu Thai in the polls before closing the gap this month. And yet still it seems a remarkable surprise — I think because optimism doesn’t typically pay off dividends in Thai politics. 

Last week, I read Duncan McCargo’s Future Forward book looking at the rise and dissolution of that party (an excerpt can be read here). Pita Limjaroenrat is a bit player in that book, the seemingly tapped successor to Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit but not a focus. Still, I found it immensely helpful in establishing a foundation for understanding the party and its supporters and a big recommend from me. 

“Today is a new day, and hopefully it is full of bright sunshine and hope,” Pita told reporters in Bangkok on Monday, as per BBC. Like Thanathorn before him, he’s not exactly NOT an elite. Pita’s uncle served as an aide to Thaksin Shinawatra and his family is super wealthy. He went off to Harvard and MIT before becoming an executive director at Grab for some time. So, not an ordinary fella from the soi. 

Lotto punters in Khon Kaen, in the northeast, couldn’t care less about Pita’s HiSo background — he’s a winner! “I will wear orange every day to attract buyers from now on,” lottery vendor Siriluck Kamsuk told Thai PBS. He says that since Monday the most popular lottery numbers are all Move Forward linked — 31 for the party’s ballot number, 30 to represent Pita as the 30th prime minister and 42, Pita’s age. 

Let’s see how that luck plays out when the party tries its negotiations with the loyalist senate. Move Forward campaigned on a platform of rolling back powers granted by the 2017 constitution, which included the arrangement which gives military-appointed senators extraordinary power in making or breaking a prime minister. 

Will senators support the clear will of the people or are they primarily interested in maintaining their own position?

Let’s talk to them first, Move Forward’s secretary-general Chaithawat Tulathon told the Bangkok Post. “Senators' concerns may be unfounded. If we can talk, they should be eased. I am confident there are some senators who are mature enough and wouldn't want to see a political impasse,” he said. It’s an intriguing question. How many, if any, senators can the party win over and how strong are the string-pullers behind the scenes? 

The Senate and other loyalists in government have long relied on respect for the monarchy as a smokescreen for scuttling dissent or otherwise hindering democratic movements. This phenomenal, clear-cut win from Move Forward changes the maths on that norm. 

Pita, the party and presumably their supporters are very interested in tackling Thailand’s taboo. While loyalists and the military wing work hard to keep that taboo in place and Pheu Thai repeatedly denounces efforts to challenge it, Move Forward has faced it head-on without much pushback from the wider electorate.

Indeed, Pita credits that reputation for much of its success. But he’s certainly no dummy, signalling to the palace that the party is well away of the King’s place and it’s about improving relations, not worsening them. 

“I’m worried about the relationship between the people and the monarchy, especially the younger generation. We’ll use the parliament to make sure that it’s a comprehensive discussion, with maturity, transparency and how we should move forward in terms of the relationship between the monarchy and the masses … It’s fair to say that it’s the sentiment of the era that has changed,” Pita said Monday, as per Bloomberg. 

Pheu Thai no longer the biggest in the playground

Lanna has fallen! The Thai Enquirer decried yesterday in its fantastic piece in the drop-off in support of Pheu Thai. It’s often noted but certainly worth consistently reiterating that Pheu Thai has won the popular vote in every election this century. And it’s been a messy century. 

McCargo notes it explicitly in his above-mentioned book and others have implicitly noted it too, but it appears the Future Forward/Move Forward tactic of presenting itself as a third home away from the yellow shirt versus red shirt dichotomy that has dominated since the 2000s is paying off.  

Democracy researcher Joel Selway takes a look at the stunning initial numbers from the north — just one poll (online, self-selecting) correctly foretold the Move Forward success in deep Pheu Thai territory. His research suggests the old adage that voters in the north have a stronger Lanna identity than connection to Thailand may no longer be correct. 

“The Pheu Thai party’s connection to Upper North voters through regionalism seems to have dissipated. Other, more important issues have come to the fore. It feels like the dawn of a new political era in Lanna,” he writes. That’s a huge story in itself! 

ISEAS’ Termsak Chalermpalanupap also dug into Pheu Thai’s future. Over at Fulcrum SG before the election, he wrote that Pheu Thai “literally painted itself into a corner” with demands that seem a bit embarrassing now that they’ve lost the top spot. PM candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra stood firm in a TikTok live stream that the party would not compromise for smaller parties to join any coalition it would lead.

Interestingly, this type of stance was likely motivated by persistent rumours that Pheu Thai would consider teaming up with military-government-aligned parties and representatives to win government, possibly prompting some would-be voters to jump ship for the warm embrace of Move Forward. 

And then there’s everyone else!

Prayuth Chan-o-cha has “no comment” for his imminent future, he told reporters on Tuesday after a Cabinet meeting. Thirteen ministers declined to attend, according to the Bangkok Post. 

I’ve loved Patpicha Tanakasempipat’s coverage of the election from Bloomberg and she’s still going strong this week. Bhumjaithai, led by incumbent health minister Anutin Charnvirakul, picked up 70 seats — heaps better than expected — primarily around Buri Ram. This is great news for fans of Thailand’s recently relaxed cannabis laws and the huge industry that quickly sprouted up. Anutin was the lead architect of that policy and may find himself able to use his seats to prevent the major parties from rolling it back. 

Now what?

Greg Raymond took a look at a few different scenarios for the Conversation. He notes likely flashpoints in the progressive coalition in the weeks ahead: Pheu Thai’s relegation to second chair and Bhumjaithai’s support for open, relaxed cannabis legislation. These tricky sore spots are totally regular and typical in democratic coalitions, but with Thailand on edge and used to the worst-case scenario, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has already batted away rumours his party would team up with Pheu Thai and backdoor it into government. 

The possibility of a “judicial coup,” in which the judiciary is used to dissolve Move Forward and others, is the most “worrying,” Raymond writes. Pita already has a media ownership case and Pheu Thai is facing a case for outsiders being involved in party processes. 

Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton thinks Move Forward and Pheu Thai are likely to take their place as government — at least for a period. “Heavy-handed moves against an election which has engaged Thai voters in record numbers — turnout was 75.2 per cent — risk protests and discontent,” Patton notes. Too true. And while the establishment may be happy to wind up red shirts from the north every few years, with Bangkok turning bright orange any resultant protest movement will be far more centralised and involve the urban middle class. 

Patton flagged something very interesting that I will quote here in full. Are we about to see the classic progressive party toning it down to maintain power? And what will that mean for future support and/or governing? 

“An uncertainty is whether Move Forward is open to compromising to survive. The party has already opted to push for reform, rather than repeal, of the lèse-majesté law. Within the broad Move Forward camp, more radical politicians will be urging Pita not to further bargain with the party’s principles. But further negotiations might be necessary to form government — whether to secure the support of the senate or more lower house MPs, for example those from the Bhum Jai Thai party, whose 70 seats make it a potential king-maker.”

Bring it on, says Pita. “With the consensus that came out of the election, it will be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who is thinking of abolishing the election results or forming a minority government,” Pita warned at Monday’s press conference. 

Can Asean Move Forward too?

A major immediate question here is: what happens now in Myanmar? This has been by no means a ‘foreign policy election’ but with the Thai military’s tacit support of the Tatmadaw, the people’s movement in Myanmar and supporters in Thailand and the region have vocally hoped a change in political direction may seem some movement. 

Adam Simpson and Nicholas Farrelly took on these questions for ASPI’s Strategist this week. It’s too early to tell, but there are some good signs: “Bangkok’s foreign policy thinkers understand perhaps better than anyone that there are major risks, for all, in the further entrenchment of Myanmar military rule. Young people in Myanmar will also look to the Thai election as an example of what patient but relentless activism can ultimately achieve.” 

Reading list:

• Thai cops feel winds of change blowing – in their hair (Coconuts Bangkok) 

• Thailand’s Revolutionary Election (Journal of Democracy)

• Thai public's rejection of rule by generals must be respected (Nikkei Asia)