DUTERTE ARRESTED!

Hello friends!

I had an extra 500 words here that I highlighted and then deleted because: Rodrigo Duterte has just been taken into custody after arriving this morning at airport in Manila. An arrest warrant had been issued by the International Criminal Court, confirming days a swirling speculation in the Philippines, that Duterte himself addressed during a campaign rally for Filipino expats in Hong Kong on Saturday. 

This is the tight end of breaking news and the rest of the day will be mayhem, if these mouthy ally senators live up to their reputations. I will certainly be back in your inbox tomorrow morning but for now Rappler has rolled out a liveblog to cover today.

This is seismic, but there are also two stories from Thailand and Myanmar that can’t be missed so scroll on down for that before sitting on the Inquirer all day. 

Thailand’s Deep South erupts in violence

A sharp reminder of Southern Thailand’s always-bubbling conflict in recent days. Attacks in Narathiwat and Pattani provinces on Saturday have left five people dead and dozens injured, local authorities say. Reporting from the Bangkok Post says security rangers and local offices had been targeted with both bombs and shooting. 

This conflict has, of course, been going on for years. I never feel equipped to understand, despite doing all the reading (including Duncan McCargo’s Tearing Apart the Land! A taster of which he gave to the Guardian a few years earlier and is still very pertinent). But, this timing is especially intriguing. 

These attacks come in the early days of this year’s Ramadan month as well as in the immediate aftermath of the deportation of dozens of Uyghur Muslims to China. But it also comes just a week and a bit after former prime minister-current whatever he is Thaksin Shinawatra visited the region for the first time in decades. Small-scale bombs had hit Yala and Narathiwat provinces in anticipation of his visit, but he insisted he was not frightened off saying previous attempts to kill him had all failed. 

The South is no fan of Thaksin. During his premiership, he implemented martial law in the region and was in charge when the horrendous Tak Bai Massacre left dozens dead after law enforcement bundled 78 men into the back of a truck, tied up and face down. 

He used the visit to apologise, kinda. “When I was a prime minister, I had a strong intention to care for local people. If there was any mistake or any discontent caused by me, I would like to apologise,” he said when asked about the massacre, as per AFP. Of course, this concession comes four months after the statute of limitations on the case has expired. 

Meanwhile, Malaysia has warned its citizens off crossing the border for the time being. “In light of these developments, Malaysians travelling to or residing in these provinces are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant. The Ministry also recommends postponing all non-essential visits to the provinces for the time being. As a precautionary measure, Malaysians currently in these provinces are urged to register their presence with the Consulate General of Malaysia in Songkhla,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement provided to the Star.

With electoral advice like this, who needs democracy?

These elections are coming, Min Aung Hlaing said, again, for the nth time. He’s given a timeline of December or January and an assurance that they’ll be “free and fair.” Remarkably, the junta boss made this call during a meeting in Minsk with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Ah, yes! That’ll convince everyone you’re serious. 

“The junta is delusional if they think an election under the current circumstances will be considered remotely credible. As a precursor to elections, they need to end the violence, release all those arbitrarily detained, and allow all political parties to register and participate instead of dissolving opposition parties,” Human Rights Watch told the BBC. 

In one ear and out the other for the junta. “If you want a multi-party democracy, don’t obstruct us. All we need is cooperation,” he told state media in Naypyitaw upon his return from a week in that bastion of democracy, Russia and Belarus, as per the Irrawaddy. Both countries have committed to sending ‘election observers’ for the process, which is so farcical I don’t even know what to say. 

From the junta’s perspective, the visit to Moscow especially seems to be a win. It was Min Aung Hlaing’s fourth time to the country since 2021 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments must have been music to his Western-shunned ears: “The relations between our countries are steadily developing. We have great potential,” Putin said during a meeting at the Kremlin, as reported by the AFP. 

Plans for a Russia-backed nuclear plant near the capital deepened: “We are also cooperating in the energy sector and planning strategic collaborations. We are prepared to extend our cooperation to other areas as well, especially in advancing renewable energy resources and have agreed to build a small-scale nuclear power plant in Myanmar. This will provide the necessary electricity for Myanmar's economic development,” Putin said, as reported by the Nation. 

I feel insane reading all this reporting, so it was a blessing to see Bhavan Jaipragas’s opinion piece in the Straits Times. “For all the talk of an abhorrent new world order in which small nations are forced to pay obeisance to the powerful, some countries seem happy to bow even before the whip is cracked,” he begins. Yes! Still, there’s a bigger game at play now with the US evidently flirting towards Russia. 

“Trump’s pivot to Putin has breathed new life into Russia-Myanmar relations, and that is the backdrop to the current visit. The trip will boost Min Aung Hlaing’s confidence, in the expectation that a resurgent Russia will be a more powerful diplomatic ally and investor,” Richard Horsey, the International Crisis Group’s senior Myanmar adviser, told Bhavan. 

Over at Asia Sentinel, David Scott Mathieson flags something that was once unthinkable and now a sincere possibility: “If the new Trump administration continues its Moscow drift, the revolutionary forces fighting the SAC can no longer expect non-lethal support for their struggle from Washington: it is a dark but not inconceivable possibility that assuming Trump and Vance ever consider taking a side in the Myanmar conflict, it could be with the junta.” 

Much commentary over the previous few months has suggested, rightly, that Trump will never have a personal interest in Myanmar one way or the other. It’s becoming clear that that doesn’t matter at all. Heavy days ahead.