🇵🇭 Doing the cha-cha with Marcos and Duterte

Hello friends!

An odd thing about travelling while working is I feel like it’s entirely reasonable to take public holidays of whichever gorgeous country is hosting you. Right now, I’m in a country that has — I’m sure of it! — more public holidays than just about anywhere else on the planet. Yesterday was a formal holiday, today is more of a ‘ahhh, it’s the Friday before Lunar New Year’ so I thought I best push through. 

I’ll be back Monday with a bumper Indonesia election update ahead of Wednesday’s vote. 

See you then! 

Erin 

Horror landslide scars Masara

Rescue efforts are underway in Masara, Davao de Oro province, after a rain-induced landslide earlier in the week. The local information office has recorded 110 people missing as of last night, with 11 confirmed killed. It sounds truly apocalyptic: rescuers say around 20 mine workers are ‘entombed’ in their cars, buried under thick mud, the Inquirer reports. 

A heady Constitution Day for Marcos Jr

If former president Rodrigo Durterte hoped he’d push President Bongbong Marcos up to the line on charter change (known almost universally as cha-cha) with his chest-thumbing about Mindanao secession, he was sadly mistaken. Although Marcos has had to be very explicit in what he wants. The 1987 Consitution offers “no dynamism or flexibility” when it comes to territorial matters, he said yesterday at a press conference marking, of all things, Constitution Day. 

“Allow me to make it clear. This administration’s position in introducing reforms for the Constitution extends to economic matters alone, for those strategically aimed at boosting our economy. Nothing more,” Marcos said. He’s previously noted that other concerns — like term limits — can be addressed later down the road, but for now, it’s all about the economy. He’s got his heart set on reforming rules around foreign land ownership, which has been a demand of the business community. 

On the floated secession of Mindanao, Marcos called it nothing less than a “constitutional travesty” and “doomed to fail,” Reuters reported. “I strongly appeal to all concerned to stop this call for a separate Mindanao. This is a grave violation of the Constitution. This is not the new Philippines that we are trying to mould. Rather this would destroy the country,” he said. 

It’s the first time Marcos himself has addressed the Duterte plan, leaving it to his security bosses instead. “The national government will not hesitate to use its authority and forces to quell and stop any and all attempts to dismember the Republic,” national security adviser Eduardo Ano said over the weekend, also reported by Reuters.

For their part, leaders in Mindanao seem a bit bewildered by the fledgling movement. “We are for one and united Philippines,” Maguindanao del Sur Gov. Bai Mariam Mangudadatu told Philstar. She is not alone: “Mindanao’s concerns should be resolved without pursuing secession…It would disrupt the interconnected productivity of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao that has long sustained our national stability,” Sultan Kudarat Gov. Datu Pax Ali Mangudadatu said.

As a brief caveat: I know enough to know I do not understand the local politics of Mindanao and it is a challenge to only use Manila-based sources for this sort of conversation, although I think these two governors are being explicitly clear in their opinions. 

Rappler has an interesting few paragraphs in its report of Marcos’ comments that have helped me understand the wider conversation about charter change. Dwight De Leon writes that Ferdinand Marcos Sr. changed the 1935 Constitution, which had allowed for four terms, while in the presidency. The current 1987 Constitution, of course, came into being following the ousting of Marcos Sr. and so carries a tremendous weight. 

This is my second time watching the Charter Change conversation crop up and it’s been a feature of presidencies for years, according to all the reporting. This says to me that this is much harder than Marcos Jr is presenting and also that is simply unlikely to happen without a dramatic shift in views from the wider electorate. Fair enough too, that’s how constitutions work! 

But it does tell us some fascinating things about how the political elite in the Philippines is constantly evolving. For the Diplomat, Mong Palatino asks if the Duterte clan, including Vice President Sara Duterte, becoming the new opposition. No, not quite, he answers quickly. But we need to think about the question. He takes stock of Duterte Jr’s messy year but the takeaway, for now, is this line: ‘In other words, the Dutertes are maneuvering for greater influence without severing ties with the ruling coalition.’

Good start, but let’s do more

United Nations Special Rapporteur Irene Khan has wrapped up an almost two-week visit to the country. She says much has improved over the last year, but accountability from the Duterte era is still desperately needed. “These are all positive signals, but they are not sufficient to turn the page decisively on the past. Tackling the grave and deep-seated human rights problems of the Philippines … will require more fundamental and sustained reforms and also a clear commitment to accountability,” 

The killings of journalists — four since Marcos Jr took power — is still an issue: “the trend remains disturbing” she notes, although suspects have been arrested in three cases and the fourth is under investigation, the Associated Press reports.