Catching up: An ICC tap and busy borders for Myanmar

Hello friends!

A big update from the ICC, developments in Shan with an MNDAA-led truce and a busy few weeks in the Andaman Sea. 

See you next week!
Erin Cook

Wanted: Min Aung Hlaing. But how serious is it?

The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor wants General Min Aung Hlaing. Karim Khan announced last week that he would petition the court to issue a warrant for his arrest, alleging crimes against humanity in the 2017 genocide of the Rohingya in Rakhine State. 

Military personnel were reported at the time to have razed villages and were accused of terrible sexual crimes against women and girls. ‘At least 6,700 Rohingya, including at least 730 children under the age of five, were killed in the month after the violence broke out, according to medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF),’ the BBC reports. 

“The ICC prosecutor’s request for this arrest warrant is a strong warning to Myanmar’s abusive military leaders that they’re not beyond the reach of the law,” Maria Elena Vignoli, senior international justice counsel at Human Rights Watch, told the BBC. 

Khan, who made the announcement from one of the Bangladesh refugee camps which hundreds of thousands have called home ever since, promised more army officials will be named down the road. “In doing so, we will be demonstrating, together with all of our partners, that the Rohingya have not been forgotten. That they, like all people around the world, are entitled to the protection of the law,” he said, as per the Associated Press.

The AFP had an interesting piece about this that the Irrawaddy ran (complete with the ‘Who is Min Aung Hlaing?’ subheading which is probably a bit unnecessary for their audience). It noted that the Khan announcement came just a few days after a warrant was issued for Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu. “There is a whiff of political expediency in the prosecutor’s decision, using the Rohingya to appear balanced,” independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson told the outlet. I don’t really know one way or the other, but it’s interesting given the Rohingya community and its supporters have been demanding meaningful international moves for seven years. 

Here goes the neighbourhood

🇹🇭 Thai spat in the Andaman Sea

A weird tussle in the Andaman Sea on Saturday has the Thai government and the Myanmar junta butting heads, sort of. The Myanmar Navy opened fire on 15 Thai vessels in the waters and arrested 31 crew, the Bangkok Post reported over the weekend. 

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra told media there on Tuesday that her government was in talks with Myanmar to have four Thai nationals repatriated. All four were “safe” she said after being detained on Saturday, the AP reports. Elsewhere, Thai officials said that one crewman had drowned. Only four of the 31 detained are Thai, with the remainder from Myanmar. 

It’s a more tempered statement from Paetongtarn than on the weekend. She had questioned Myanmar’s claims that the vessels had encroached on Myanmar’s waters before they were fired upon. Regardless, “We don't support violence whatever the circumstances,” she said. Thai Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai had also confirmed he had sent a letter to the Myanmar junta to register their anger. 

Settle down, it was all “in line with rules and regulations” says the Myanmar military as per the Irrawaddy. Junta spokesman Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun said it’s all above board because the Thai vessels were within Myanmar’s waters. And furthermore — they had revolutionary materials onboard! Allegedly. Investigations are continuing 

🇨🇳 China’s ceasefire changes the map in Shan State. Or doesn’t! We’ll see.

Ceasefire, says Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). It announced a truce with the junta in its Shan State battleground this week after leader Peng Daxun visited China — and was then kept under house arrest. “From today onwards, our troops will cease fire immediately and will not launch an offensive against military council troops,” the group said in a statement, as reported by Radio Free Asia.

The MNDAA said it was looking forwards to submitting to negotiations led by China and that these negotiations would include what happens for Lashio, the Irrawaddy reports. 

Easier said than done. “If the MNDAA returns it, their defensive position will collapse. Such a move would also threaten towns around Lashio that were recently liberated by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army [TNLA], an ethnic ally of the MNDAA,” one unidentified analyst told the paper.

Dr Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based analyst, agrees. “The MNDAA is saying after the ceasefire, they’ll engage in discussions, to have their own basic territory and permission to establish it. If they don’t get it, they’ll pick up arms,” she said, as per that RFA story. 

Crucially, the MNDAA also demanded the junta stop with the air strikes.  

In both Shan and Kachin States, shutdowns along the China border has devastated local economies and sent prices sky high. Basic necessities have been priced out of reach especially for those who have been displaced by conflicts across the states, Radio Free Asia reports. 

Elsewhere, an intriguing editorial from the Irrawaddy looks at China’s response to the above ICC. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning went to bat for the general telling journalists the Rohingya genocide is “complex” and noted that Myanmar hasn’t signed on to the Rome Statute so none of this matters anyway. For China, the editorial writes, business wheeling and dealing trumps any concerns about human rights. Well, that tracks. 

🇮🇳 Meth in the water

Indian authorities had a massive bust last month, snagging 5.5 tonnes of meth being shipped from Myanmar into the country. Good lord! The Indian Coast Guard spotted suspicious vessels in the Andaman Sea before a raid on Nov. 26, the AFP reports via Straits Times. Not too many specifics here, just another link in the pile of stories about drug exports in the junta era. Big haul for the ICG, however. A new record! 

In Frontier Myanmar, R. Lakher has a fascinating opinion piece looking at policy when it comes to refugee communities in Mizoram state. Refugees from across the border in Chin State report they were initially welcomed and well-supported but are now finding life harder and harder. The bigger picture is worth interrogating: ‘The country has been more accommodating of other refugee populations, such as Tibetans escaping oppression from China, India’s long-time rival. This suggests its treatment of Myanmar refugees is shaped by geopolitics.’  

Babel Rap: How a transnational hip hop collective is rapping against Myanmar’s dictatorship — Ramona Drosner, Frontier Myanmar

Kan Kyi is quick to call himself a third culture kid. This label, which means he grew up in a country other than his parents’ homes, suggests an uncertain sense of belonging. Sure enough, for much of the 29-year-old hip hop producer, emcee and impresario’s life, that is exactly what he’s been striving to find. 

Kan Kyi was raised in Thailand but is ethnically English, Shan and Bamar – groups with a history of warring against one another. He says he feels partly but not wholly any of these identities. Yet, rather than allow himself to be made an outsider everywhere, Kan Kyi has used his uniquely split heritage to unite a diverse group of artists and emcees around a politically conscious hip hop community in Chiang Mai. 

Soldier students: Job training gives hope to Myanmar’s military defectors — Lorcan Lovett and Ko David, Al Jazeera

At a secret gathering above a cafe in a town on the Myanmar-Thailand border, Ko Aye examined the inside of an Android phone alongside 10 fellow defectors from Myanmar’s military and police forces.

The trainer, an ex-captain in the Myanmar army, guided the group through the process of repairing a mobile phone, a skill that could help them build a future beyond the conflict they recently left behind.

Analysts: China's push for peace in Myanmar draws skepticism — Nyein Chan Aye, VOA

Offers from two armed resistance groups in Myanmar to participate in Chinese-brokered peace talks with the ruling junta are seen by analysts as the result of mounting pressure from Beijing and unlikely to end the wider insurgency.

The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) credited China's mediation efforts when it announced its readiness for peace talks on November 25, shortly after junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited Beijing.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) made a similar announcement on Tuesday. Both groups are members of the Brotherhood Alliance, which has been involved in a broad offensive against the junta since October 2023.